Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1019 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.UPDATE...

The line of thunderstorms exiting western Wisconsin have been
weakening as they encounter more stable air to the east. Still
some strong winds possible through midnight.

Main problem will be heavy rains with high precipitable water
values. heaviest recent rainfall was occurring south over
northwest Illinois and just to the north of the area that
previously received 3 inches of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

Widespread showers and storms with mvfr conditions and some ifr
will move east into southeast Wisconsin, gradually diminishing in
intensity as it reaches the more stable air. Latest model trends
show mainly dry weather Wednesday morning behind the departing
complex of storms. Should see scattered thunderstorms develop from
mid/late afternoon as the main upper trough swings through. Some
of these may produce hail and strong winds.

VFR conditions will generally prevail Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves are generally expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels the next couple days.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight...with a chance
for a few more storms tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop southwest of the
forecast area this afternoon. Moisture and instability will increase
from southwest to northeast as a warm front lifts into the area. As
a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
spread into the forecast area from the southwest this afternoon into
the evening, moving across southern Wisconsin into the early night
hours. There is a chance a few of the storms may be strong to
severe, especially toward the west/southwest where more instability
will be available as the storms move in. Some locally heavy rainfall
is possible as well, with precipitable water values increasing to
1.50 to 2.00 inches.

Consensus of latest mesoscale models has the complex of
showers/storms clearing the eastern forecast area by very early
morning, roughly 2 am to 5 am, depending on the model. It will
likely be dry then Wednesday morning into early afternoon. The main
shortwave and associated cold front will likely kick off a few
showers and storms from northwest to southeast mid/late afternoon.
Though deeper moisture will have moved to the east by tomorrow
afternoon, there should be a decent amount of lingering instability
ahead of the trough/front. Also, 0-6 km bulk shear will be 30-40
knots. Though mid-level lapse rates are not that impressive, does
look like a few of the storms could be strong/severe. SPC has
lowered severe probabilities a bit for tomorrow, with a Slight Risk
northeast half and a Marginal Risk southwest half.

Temps tomorrow could get toasty. Given enough clearing behind the
departing convective complex, 925 mb temps of 24-26 C suggest highs
around 90. Went with warmest temps in the south, as clouds will
probably be increasing sooner in the north toward the low. Will be
tricky near Lake Michigan, as there is some question of whether or
not winds will remain offshore from Milwaukee southward. North of
Milwaukee, there seems like a better chance for an onshore component
to the winds and somewhat cooler temps as a result.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

Expect ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the period with compact
500 mb low over far north-central Wisconsin tracking southeast to
south-central lower Michigan. Showers and storms will be mainly
along and to the northeast of the path of the attendant surface low
that moves from southeast Wisconsin to southeast Lower Michigan by
12Z Thursday with an inverted trough extending back to the
northwest.

CAPE values fall through the evening as low to mid-level lapse rates
lower to 4-5C/km, so storms should transition to showers as best
forcing shifts east of the forecast area 06z Thursday. Clouds will
help hold low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

Some channeled vorticity in the cyclonic flow over eastern Wisconsin
Thursday morning, with the NAM and GFS producing some light QPF in
the far east in the convergence along the cool front/wind shift line
behind the departing surface low. However forecast soundings only
showing shallow moisture so slight chance PoPs for sprinkles/light
showers at best, mainly in the northeast CWA. 925 mb temperatures
gradient and north to northeast winds will provide a range of high
temperatures from the low to mid 70s in the northeast half of the
CWA with upper 70s in the southwest half.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

Dry and warm period with upper ridging and surface high pressure in
place. Overnight lows cool into the mid to upper 50s. Easterly winds
will keep lakeshore counties cooler Friday, but 925 mb temperatures
modify upward producing low 80 highs mainly west of the Kettle
Moraine.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

While the amplified 500 mb ridge flattens with the approach of a
trough digging across the northern prairie provinces of Canada into
the Hudson Bay region by Sunday evening, high confidence of dry and
warm weather through Saturday night as the state will be under the
northern periphery of an evolving broad 500 mb high covering most of
the lower 48 states, which keeps the stream of short wave energy
north of the state.

Confidence lowers for Sunday as GFS develops a wide band of
precipitation along a weak surface trough dipping well into the
state that moves into the far nw CWA Sunday afternoon, while ECMWF
holds the trough back over northwest WI with much less QPF. This
scenario is supported by the forecast soundings that show a warm
capping inversion between 850mb and 750 mb that would have to be
overcome/erode before any showers or storms could develop.

Have a collaborative slight chance in the northern and northwest
fringes of the forecast area for mainly Sunday afternoon, but
believe showers and storms will hold off until Sunday night. Chances
for showers and storms then continue at times through the remainder
of the extended with a series of short waves in the zonal flow. At
or slightly above normal temperatures expected.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Widespread showers and storms are likely from later this afternoon
into tonight, spreading into the area from west to east. Latest
model trends show mainly dry weather Wednesday into early afternoon
behind the departing complex of storms. May see scattered storms
develop from mid/late afternoon as the main upper trough swings
through.

VFR conditions will generally prevail through Wednesday. A period of
lower ceilings and visibilities is possible though as the complex of
showers/storms moves through the forecast area this evening into
tonight.

MARINE...

Winds and waves are generally expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels the next couple days.

A round of showers and storms is expected this evening into
tonight...with a chance for a few more storms tomorrow afternoon
into the evening.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Hentz
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...REM

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