Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A line of thunderstorms continues to develop ahead of an approaching
front in northwest Wisconsin. This will be the main feature of
concern this evening, as these storms are expected to move southeast
toward the forecast area.

The first issue is timing of the line, as models are not in very
good agreement at this point. The HRRR seems to have the best handle
and is also the fastest of the mesoscale models. Latest radar trends
suggest even the HRRR might be a little slow with the progression of
this convective event. Have thus timed pops toward the faster model
solutions.

The other concern is how far southeast the line will propagate this
evening. There is a general diminishing trend per most models as the
line drops through the forecast area. There is thus higher
confidence in storms across the north. The latest experimental HRRR
brings storms all the way through, which might not be a bad solution
given the current placement/speed of the line per the various model
solutions.

SPC is maintaining a Slight Risk for severe storms across most of
the forecast area for this evening.

After the storms move through this evening and early tonight, it
should turn dry for the remainder of the night and into Saturday
morning. Models are suggesting convective development across mainly
the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon in the
vicinity of the slow moving frontal boundary. Plenty of instability
tomorrow to go along with marginal 0-6 km bulk shear of 20-25 knots.
SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across roughly the southern
half of the forecast area tomorrow.

Temps tonight will remain mild, around 70 most places. Not much
change in thinking with temps for tomorrow. Looks hot and humid,
with highs into the low 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70
will result in heat index values pushing 100. With borderline
advisory values and the potential for afternoon storms, opted to
hold off on an advisory for now.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

Colder air dropping in behind deepening northeastern U.S. 500 mb
trough pushes a back-door cold front south down Lake Michigan and
northern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon, and moves the front through
southern Wisconsin Saturday night. Some differing model timing of the
front into srn WI leads to leaving some slight chance PoPs in for
Saturday evening.

Front stalls to the southwest and begins to lift back to the
northeast as a warm front. Surface boundary does not lift across the
CWA but 850 mb warm air advection triggers a band of light
precipitation in the consensus solution over the far northwest
Sunday morning. Southeast winds will keep the northeastern third of
the forecast area cool with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
and mid 60s along the lake. The southwest two-thirds will warm into
the mid to upper 70s.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Precipitation chances rise as a short wave trough flattens amplified
500 mb ridge as it tracks across the western Great Lakes region with
the associated surface low from western MN into srn WI/nrn IL by 00Z
Tuesday. Model surface dew points may be a bit too moist but enough
instability with low to mid 80 high temperatures for thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

An unsettled period as deep southwest U.S. 500 mb low opens up and
lifts toward region Monday night and Tuesday, then closes off over
South Dakota/Nebraska Wednesday and drifts across WI/IL Thursday,
stalling over nrn MO/central IL Friday. While there will be some
dry periods, uncertain timing leads to chance PoPs Tuesday through
Thursday night before low finally drifts far enough south to have
Friday and Friday night dry. Temperatures will hover around normal
levels for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

It should be dry through the late afternoon hours, with storms then
likely moving into the northwest this evening. There remains a
question of how far southeast these storms will make it, so will
have to continue to sort through latest model data as it comes in.
There is a chance some of these storms could be severe, with
damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

There will be another chance for storms Saturday afternoon and
evening, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area.

Should see mainly VFR through Saturday, other than lower
visibilities in moderate/heavy rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...

Storms are likely this evening, with a chance again tomorrow
afternoon. Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary threats.

Breezy northeast winds may build waves to around 3 to 5 feet
Saturday night. A small craft advisory may be needed for this period.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...REM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
540 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-112115-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
540 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A LINE OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TRACKS SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF
NATURAL RESOURCES FOR OZONE FOR THE COUNTIES OF
OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON
SATURDAY.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-112115-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
540 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A LINE OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TRACKS SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WARM AND HUMID
AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHEBOYGAN               43.75N 87.72W
06/10/2016                   SHEBOYGAN          WI   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN
            SCATTERED ACROSS THE COUNTY BETWEEN 836 PM CDT AND 9 PM
            CDT.

&&

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E SHEBOYGAN           43.75N 87.70W
06/10/2016  M46 MPH          LMZ643             WI   C-MAN STATION

            SHEBOYGAN C-MAN REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 40
            KNOTS...46 MPH.

&&

REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
956 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     BERLIN                  43.97N 88.95W
06/10/2016  E30.00 MPH       GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES SPARKING.

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     WISCONSIN DELLS         43.63N 89.78W
06/10/2016  E40.00 MPH       COLUMBIA           WI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE LIMB DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 12 AND
            PIONEER DRIVE FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ESTIMATED
            AT 40 MPH.

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARQUETTE               43.75N 89.14W
06/10/2016  M45.00 MPH       GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

0738 PM     TSTM WND GST     DALTON                  43.66N 89.21W
06/10/2016  E40.00 MPH       GREEN LAKE         WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ESTIMATED
            BETWEEN 35 MPH AND 40 MPH.

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PORTAGE                 43.55N 89.47W
06/10/2016                   COLUMBIA           WI   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND 6 TO 8 ROADS
            BLOCKED BY TREES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
            THE COUNTY BETWEEN 8 PM CDT AND 820 PM CDT.

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARABOO                 43.47N 89.74W
06/10/2016                   SAUK               WI   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CENTER RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ACROSS
            THE COUNTY FROM LA VALLE TO ROCK SPRINGS AND BARABOO
            BETWEEN 8PM CDT AND 820 PM CDT.

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     LONE ROCK AIRPORT       43.21N 90.19W
06/10/2016  M54.00 MPH       SAUK               WI   ASOS

            PEAK THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...47KNOTS...
            REPORTED BY LONE ROCK AIRPORT ASOS.

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     ENE FOND DU LAC         43.78N 88.45W
06/10/2016  E50.00 MPH       FOND DU LAC        WI   PUBLIC

            EVENT ORGANIZER FOR WALLEYE WEEKEND REPORTED A TENT
            KNOCKED DOWN...PORT-O-POTTIES KNOCKED OVER...GARBAGE CANS
            BLOWN INTO LAKE WINNEBAGO AND TREE BRANCHES DOWNED BY
            THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH.

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHEBOYGAN               43.75N 87.72W
06/10/2016                   SHEBOYGAN          WI   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN
            SCATTERED ACROSS THE COUNTY BETWEEN 836 PM CDT AND 9 PM
            CDT.

0850 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E SHEBOYGAN           43.75N 87.70W
06/10/2016  M46.00 MPH       LMZ643             WI   C-MAN STATION

            SHEBOYGAN C-MAN REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 40
            KNOTS...46 MPH.

&&

REM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIZ065-066-069>072-110330-
ROCK-MILWAUKEE-WAUKESHA-RACINE-KENOSHA-WALWORTH-
957 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WALWORTH...
SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE...RACINE...SOUTHEASTERN ROCK AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES...

AT 954 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF WIND POINT TO NEAR
GERMAN VALLEY. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENOSHA...RACINE...OAK CREEK...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGO...SOUTH MILWAUKEE...
PLEASANT PRAIRIE...CUDAHY...ELKHORN...DELAVAN...LAKE GENEVA...STURTEVANT...
TWIN LAKES...UNION GROVE...PADDOCK LAKE...WILLIAMS BAY...WIND LAKE...CAMP
LAKE...ROCHESTER AND GENOA CITY.

LAT...LON 4250 8900 4294 8785 4285 8783 4278 8775
      4261 8782 4249 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 329DEG 84KT 4289 8753 4218 8939

SPM