Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
929 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

.UPDATE...Abbreviated discussion due to ongoing near
severe/severe. Scattered thunderstorms should continue to affect
southern WI through the night as low level jet grazes southern WI
and warm front edges closer. Fortunately thunderstorms have
remained scattered enought and moving quickly enough to prevent
urban and small stream flooding in Green and Rock counties.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Will need to watch for low clouds developing
in the vicinity of warm front later tonight into Friday morning
along with patchy fog.

&&

.MARINE...Southwest offshore winds may approach small craft
advisory levels after warm front passage Friday afternoon. Will
need to reevaluate wind speeds with new midnight forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with 850mb warm
air advection (waa) and frontogenesis over southern WI will continue
to diminish and slide southeast. The cloud shield from these showers
kept temperatures cooler in the mid 60s today while areas north of
there were able to heat into the lower/mid 70s.

The convective allowing models (CAMs) have been amazingly consistent
in developing a line of thunderstorms over the central MKX forecast
area at 01z or 02z (8pm or 9pm) from roughly the Dells to Kenosha.
Then they gradually shift the line to the northeast as the
convection weakens.  The forcing for these thunderstorms are going
to come from the nose of the low level jet so that is why they are
going to wait until early/mid evening and develop along the 850-
700mb frontogenesis.

RAP model has elevated CAPE values of around 1000 j/kg or less this
in southwest WI evening. The bulk shear is fairly strong around 25
to 30 kt. SPC kept southern WI in the marginal risk for severe since
there will be enough elevated instability to support a few stronger
wind gusts and possible large hail.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

The 850mb warm front will lift north of the MKX forecast area by
late tonight. The surface warm front will continue to progress north
through the area during the day Friday. The capped environment will
allow for afternoon sunshine and hot temperatures. Dewpoints could
reach upper 60s for a time Friday morning, but we should mix through
the afternoon so dews could mix out to the upper 50s. Max temps
should be around 90 with a max heat index of around 94.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Forcing and lift with the 850 mb warm advection on increasing low-
level southwest to west winds ahead of a short wave/MCV moves in
after 03Z. Will hold off PoPs for most of the area until after 03Z
then increase to likely, with an expected MCS sweeping across with
the strongest convergence at 850 mb, with some contribution from
differential CVA with a short wave/MCV riding the northern periphery
of broad 500 mb ridge that crosses southern Wisconsin overnight
Friday night.

Leaning more toward lower dew points seen on ECMWF and Canadian GEM
due to recent moist biases seen in the NAM and GFS, which cuts the
most-unstable CAPE in half to between 800 J/kg and 1000 J/kg Friday
night. Effective shear around 20 knots sufficient for organized
updrafts within the elevated convection so could see some hail
and gusty winds. SPC has portions of the northern CWA, closer to
the boundary, in a Slight Risk with the rest of the area in a
Marginal Risk.

Showers and thunderstorms taper off west to east early Saturday
morning with this initial surge, but 850 mb thermal ridge remains
over the area with a surface trough/back-door cold front sagging
south through the state. Where this trough sets up will be low-level
focus for subsequent thunderstorm development, but current
indications are it will be in central WI at 18Z and settling into
srn Wi by 00Z. The expected clouds and late afternoon showers/storms
will limit high temperatures, and with dew points around 70F will
keep Heat Index values in the mid-90s.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

500 MB ridge amplifies and narrows through the Northern Plains
Saturday night, with the ridge axis slowly shifting towards the
western Great Lakes Sunday, pushing the track of short waves/MCVs
north of the forecast area. The narrowing ridge allows the back-door
cold front to sag from ne to sw across the forecast area Saturday
night, then stalls Sunday morning and begins to push back to the
northeast Sunday afternoon as mid-upper level ridge axes shift over
the state.

Will push PoPs out of areas late Saturday night with the front, then
bring slight chance PoPs back into the sw during the day, and spread
the slight/low chance PoPs to the northeast Sunday night. Lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s behind the front with highs Sunday from
the mid 70s to around 80 well-inland, with easterly winds holding
readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the eastern third.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Amplified 500 mb ridge breaks down with a weak short wave trough
tracking across WI Monday night, with a more vigorous trough
approaching for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Differing speeds of
these features and subsequent position of boundaries leads to
slight chance/chance PoPs through the extended. Slightly above
normal temperatures are expected Monday with near-normal readings
through the rest of the period.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over south central and far
southeast WI early this evening, including MSN and ENW. There is
more uncertainty of development over UES and MKE and northeast.
These storms should drift to the northeast as they weaken overnight.
The best chance for strong or possibly severe storms would run from
about 00z/7 pm this evening through about 06z/ 1 am Fri.

There is potential for MVFR or lower ceilings late tonight into Fri
morning north of MSN to MKE, on the north side of the warm front.
Low cigs and vsbys are possible in any showers/storms. In addition,
the light winds and area precip should lead to areas of fog late
tonight into Friday morning, especially east of Madison.

MARINE...

Dense fog may develop over Lake Michigan as warm and moist air flows
over the relatively cool water as a warm front lifts into northern
WI and MI Friday through Saturday.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria into early next week.  Showers and thunderstorms are a
threat on and off into Saturday.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...REM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
355 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-102100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
355 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND REMAIN A
FOCUS FOR REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE SUCCESSIVE
ROUNDS OF STORMS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WARM FRONT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A RIPON...RANDOLPH TO SPRING
GREEN LINE AND CONTINUING THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA FOR MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-102100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
355 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WARM AND HUMID
AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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