Alert archive / Wisconsin / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 27, NWS Milwaukee, WI

October 26, 2016Green County, Rock County, Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this river flood warning at Oct 26, 2016, 10:59 AM CDT for Green County, Rock County, Wisconsin. It took effect at Oct 27, 2016, 6:20 AM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 26, 2016, 10:59 AM CDT (15:59 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 27, 2016, 6:20 AM CDT
Expired
Oct 30, 2016, 7:00 AM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Green County, WI, Rock County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Sugar River at Brodhead (BROW3).

Action stage
4.5 ft
Minor stage
5 ft
Moderate stage
8 ft
Major stage
10 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05436500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

964 
WGUS43 KMKX 261559
FLWMKX
 
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1059 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

...The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Wisconsin...

  Baraboo River At Rock Springs affecting Sauk County
  Baraboo River Near Baraboo affecting Sauk County
  East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting 
  Lafayette County
  Sugar River At Brodhead affecting Green and Rock Counties


&& 
WIC111-270359-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0024.161027T2200Z-161030T1030Z/
/RSPW3.1.ER.161027T2200Z.161029T0000Z.161030T0430Z.NO/
1059 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

* At 10:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.5 feet.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Floodwaters are about 1 foot deep in the 
  basball diamond in Fireman's Park along Highway DD.  Water is over 
  portions of Highway DD in Rock Springs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4349 8998 4353 8990 4350 8986 4348 8982
      4343 8990 4346 8997

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Rock Springs    18.5  13.5  11.63 11 AM 10/26  13.7 18.7 19.6 18.8

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Rock Springs    11.63  11 AM 10/26    2.19      19.60 07 PM 10/28

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.

Rock Springs: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.44
Rock Springs: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.08
Rock Springs: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.00
Rock Springs: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Rock Springs: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Rock Springs: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Rock Springs: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Rock Springs: 1 am-7 am  Fri Oct 28  0.00

$$

WIC111-270359-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0025.161028T0142Z-161031T2230Z/
/BABW3.1.ER.161028T0142Z.161029T0600Z.161031T1630Z.NO/
1059 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...There is widespread flooding of 
  agricultural land.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4342 8965 4351 8967 4353 8964 4354 8957
      4349 8945 4347 8957

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Baraboo         16.0  14.0  10.15 09 AM 10/26  12.3 15.8 17.8 18.0

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Baraboo         10.15  09 AM 10/26    1.88      18.00 01 AM 10/29

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.

Baraboo: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.66
Baraboo: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.10
Baraboo: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.00
Baraboo: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Baraboo: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Baraboo: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Baraboo: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Baraboo: 1 am-7 am  Fri Oct 28  0.00

$$

WIC065-270359-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0026.161027T1200Z-161028T1400Z/
/BCHW3.1.ER.161027T1200Z.161027T1800Z.161028T0200Z.NO/
1059 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H 
  and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
      4272 8991 4279 8991

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Blanchardville  11.0   9.0   5.42 09 AM 10/26   8.8 11.2  7.1  5.5

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Blanchardville   5.42  09 AM 10/26    0.61      11.40 01 PM 10/27

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.

Blanchardville: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.64
Blanchardville: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.08
Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Blanchardville: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 am-7 am  Fri Oct 28  0.00

$$

WIC045-105-270358-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0027.161027T1120Z-161030T1200Z/
/BROW3.1.ER.161027T1120Z.161028T1200Z.161030T0600Z.NO/
1059 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 1.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Impact...At 6.5 feet...There is widespread flooding of lowland and 
  agricultural land. Downstream in the Avon Bottoms area of Rock 
  County, there is flooding in Sugar River Park. Some roads are 
  flooded in Avon Township, about 6 miles downstream of Brodhead.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4267 8950 4267 8933 4259 8930 4249 8922
      4249 8942 4261 8951

&& 

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 pm...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Brodhead         5.0   4.5   1.56 09 AM 10/26   3.2  6.2  6.4  5.2

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Brodhead         1.80  11 AM 10/19    0.17       6.60 07 AM 10/28

Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.

Brodhead: 7 am-1 pm  Wed Oct 26  1.05
Brodhead: 1 pm-7 pm  Wed Oct 26  0.10
Brodhead: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.00
Brodhead: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Brodhead: 7 am-1 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Brodhead: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Brodhead: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Brodhead: 1 am-7 am  Fri Oct 28  0.00

$$
2 follow-up statements
484 
WGUS83 KMKX 262037
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...
  Baraboo River At Rock Springs affecting Sauk County 
  Baraboo River Near Baraboo affecting Sauk County 
  East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting 
  Lafayette County 
  Sugar River At Brodhead affecting Green and Rock Counties 
 

&& 
WIC111-270837-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0024.161027T2200Z-161030T1030Z/
/RSPW3.1.ER.161027T2200Z.161029T0000Z.161030T0430Z.NO/
337 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Baraboo River At Rock Springs.
* At  3:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 19.6 feet by Friday evening.the river will
  fall below flood stage by Saturday before midnight.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Floodwaters are about 1 foot deep in the 
  basball diamond in Fireman's Park along Highway DD.  Water is over 
  portions of Highway DD in Rock Springs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4349 8998 4353 8990 4350 8986 4348 8982
      4343 8990 4346 8997

$$

WIC111-270837-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0025.161028T0142Z-161031T2230Z/
/BABW3.1.ER.161028T0142Z.161029T0600Z.161031T1630Z.NO/
337 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Baraboo River Near Baraboo.
* At  2:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow evening and continue 
  to rise to near 18.0 feet by early Saturday morning.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...There is widespread flooding of 
  agricultural land.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4342 8965 4351 8967 4353 8964 4354 8957
      4349 8945 4347 8957

$$

WIC065-270837-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0026.161027T1200Z-161028T1400Z/
/BCHW3.1.ER.161027T1200Z.161027T1800Z.161028T0200Z.NO/
337 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At  2:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 11.4 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H 
  and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
      4272 8991 4279 8991

$$

WIC045-105-270837-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0027.161027T1120Z-161030T1200Z/
/BROW3.1.ER.161027T1120Z.161028T1200Z.161030T0600Z.NO/
337 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sugar River At Brodhead.
* At  2:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 1.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 6.6 feet by Friday morning.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 6.5 feet...There is widespread flooding of lowland and 
  agricultural land. Downstream in the Avon Bottoms area of Rock 
  County, there is flooding in Sugar River Park. Some roads are 
  flooded in Avon Township, about 6 miles downstream of Brodhead.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4267 8950 4267 8933 4259 8930 4249 8922
      4249 8942 4261 8951

$$

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted 
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 am...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Baraboo         16.0  14.0  11.21 02 PM 10/26  14.2 17.1 18.0 17.6
Blanchardville  11.0   9.0   6.60 02 PM 10/26  11.0  9.8  5.6  5.5
Brodhead         5.0   4.5   1.83 02 PM 10/26   5.1  6.6  5.8  4.8
Rock Springs    18.5  13.5  12.62 03 PM 10/26  17.2 19.3 19.4 18.0

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Baraboo         11.21  02 PM 10/26    2.94      18.00 01 AM 10/29
Blanchardville   6.60  02 PM 10/26    1.79      11.40 01 PM 10/27
Brodhead         1.83  02 PM 10/26    0.45       6.60 07 AM 10/28
Rock Springs    12.62  03 PM 10/26    3.19      19.60 07 PM 10/28

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through February and for 24 hours into the future from
March through August.

Baraboo: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.13
Baraboo: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.91
Baraboo: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.66
Baraboo: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.17
Blanchardville: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.54
Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.64
Blanchardville: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

Brodhead: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.13
Brodhead: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.36
Brodhead: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  1.05
Brodhead: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

Rock Springs: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.14
Rock Springs: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  1.07
Rock Springs: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.44
Rock Springs: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
422 
WGUS83 KMKX 270115
FLSMKX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
815 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...
 
  Baraboo River At Rock Springs affecting Sauk County
  East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville affecting 
  Lafayette County
  Sugar River At Brodhead affecting Green and Rock Counties
 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...
 
  Baraboo River Near Baraboo affecting Sauk County 
 

&& 
WIC111-270145-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-161030T1030Z/
/RSPW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Baraboo River At Rock Springs.
* At  7:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 17.5 feet 
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Farm fields adjacent to the river are 
  flooded in the Loganville area.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4349 8998 4353 8990 4350 8986 4348 8982
      4343 8990 4346 8997

$$

WIC111-271315-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0025.161028T1800Z-161030T0000Z/
/BABW3.1.ER.161028T1800Z.161029T0000Z.161029T1800Z.NO/
815 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Baraboo River Near Baraboo.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 16.1 feet by Friday evening.the river will
  fall below flood stage by Saturday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...The effects of flooding at this level are 
  confined mainly to agricultural land.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4342 8965 4351 8967 4353 8964 4354 8957
      4349 8945 4347 8957

$$

WIC065-270145-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-161028T1400Z/
/BCHW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The East Branch Pecatonica River Near Blanchardville.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 10.5 feet 
  tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters cover a portion of Highway H 
  and floodwaters are into McKellar Park in Blanchardville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4283 8992 4284 8984 4279 8981 4272 8984
      4272 8991 4279 8991

$$

WIC045-105-270145-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-161030T1200Z/
/BROW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Sugar River At Brodhead.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 2.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 4.8 feet 
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Some roads become flooded about 6 miles 
  downstream in Avon Township in Rock County. In the Avon Bottoms 
  area of Rock County, some minor flooding develops in Sugar River 
  Park, including the boat ramp.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4267 8950 4267 8933 4259 8930 4249 8922
      4249 8942 4261 8951

$$

&&

River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted 
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
 
(stages in ft.)        Bank-      Latest         Forecast stages
-               Flood  full      observed        ...for 7 am...
Location       stage  stage    stage/time       Thu  Fri  Sat  Sun
Baraboo         16.0  14.0  12.18 07 PM 10/26  15.9 16.1 15.0 13.6
Blanchardville  11.0   9.0   7.83 07 PM 10/26   8.7  5.2  5.2  5.1
Brodhead         5.0   4.5   2.23 07 PM 10/26   4.7  4.5  3.7  3.0
Rock Springs    18.5  13.5  13.30 08 PM 10/26  17.4 16.9 15.5 14.7

-                   Highest      24 hour change
-                   observed     in river stage
-                   stage in      (ft.) up to      Highest stage
-                   the last    latest observed     forecast in
-                   7 days          stage           next 7 days
Baraboo         12.18  07 PM 10/26    3.90      16.10 07 PM 10/28
Blanchardville   7.83  07 PM 10/26    3.02      10.50 01 PM 10/27
Brodhead         2.23  07 PM 10/26    0.85       4.80 01 PM 10/28
Rock Springs    13.30  08 PM 10/26    3.88      17.50 01 PM 10/28

Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through February and for 24 hours into the future from
March through August.

Baraboo: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.04
Baraboo: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Baraboo: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Baraboo: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.01
Blanchardville: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Blanchardville: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Blanchardville: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

Brodhead: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.02
Brodhead: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Brodhead: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Brodhead: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

Rock Springs: 7 pm-1 am  Wed Oct 26  0.03
Rock Springs: 1 pm-7 pm  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Rock Springs: 7 pm-1 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00
Rock Springs: 1 am-7 am  Thu Oct 27  0.00

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 26, 10:09 AM CDT, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 26, 10:09 AM CDT, 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1009 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The back edge of the higher returns on radar is steadily tracking
across southern WI this morning. While this is the end of
heavy/moderate rain, expect light rain showers and/or drizzle to
persist through the afternoon across south central WI and probably
the evening hours in southeast WI.

The strong synoptic forcing, leading shortwave trough, right
entrance region of the upper jet, and deep moisture will continue
shifting east today. The main upper trough will lag behind and not
exit WI until after midnight tonight. Because of the cyclonic flow
and lingering low level moisture, drizzle and light rain are
expected through the afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Widespread rain will lower cigs from MVFR to IFR behind this main
band of rain today as surface low pressure tracks from eastern Iowa
this morning, to northern Indiana by late this evening. The rain
will diminish from west to east this afternoon with light rain and
drizzle continuing into the evening.  All the rain/drizzle should
end by sunrise Thursday.  But, cigs will likely remain IFR through
about 12z Thursday, then gradually lift thereafter.

Look for strong southeast winds to persist through the afternoon,
especially for the KMKE/KUES/KENW TAF sites. A few gusts will be
pushing 30kts at times.  Winds will diminish quickly this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Gale force winds likely be highest into early afternoon with gale
force east winds continuing into the early evening. This is in
response to an intense low pressure system tracking across northern
Illinois, to northern Indiana by later this evening. The winds will
diminish overnight with lighter northerly winds expected on
Thursday.

Low pressure tracking by to the north of the area on Friday will
generate gusty southerly winds that will likely result in small
craft advisory conditions for Friday into Friday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

A compact surface low pressure system will track from central
Iowa this morning to northern Indiana by late this evening. This
system has a lot going for it. There's a potent mid level short
wave, a sharp h8 baroclinic zone with the warm front laying out
across southern WI, and a moderately strong low level jet
supporting deep isentropic ascent within a moisture rich axis.
PW's are at an inch or better.

The guidance still supports the heaviest rain area over the nrn
half of the forecast area today, lowest along the WI/IL line. No
real change to the going forecast. Rivers will rise with this
rain, with a few sites expected to reach bankfull levels, mainly
north of Milwaukee and Madison. Urban areas could see some
localized street flooding, due to clogged drainage systems from
all the fallen leaves.

It will be a raw day, with highs in the mid 40s and a strong
southeast wind kicking in, especially over eastern WI and along
the Lake Michigan shoreline. We should see a few gusts pushing
30-35 mph. The rain will diminish from west to east this
afternoon, becoming light and drizzly for a time this evening,
before ending after midnight.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in decent agreement with high pressure pushing
eastward, to the south of the area, Thursday into Thursday
evening. This should bring dry conditions to the area. However,
mid level clouds should linger during this time. This should keep
highs Thursday in the upper 40s to around 50 in the northern
counties, to lower 50s in the southern counties.

Warm air advection then develops across the region later Thursday
night into Friday, as low pressure passes eastward across the
U.S./Canadian border into Lake Superior. A tight pressure gradient
develops Friday in the area, lingering into Friday night. This
should bring gusty south to southwest winds with warmer
temperatures.

Some middle to high clouds may linger, which will affect
temperatures. For now, went with highs in the 60s across the area,
highest in the south and west. It may get warmer if clouds are not
as plentiful as currently forecast.

Cold front then passes eastward through the area Friday night. NAM
is the only model that is producing any QPF across the area. It
seems overdone with elevated CAPE, as GFS soundings are not
showing nearly as much of it. Kept small PoPs for showers in the
far northeast areas Friday evening, but this may need removal if
dry look of most of the models continues.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF/GFS are in decent agreement with features for Saturday into
Tuesday. They have some cold air advection over the area Saturday,
as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest. There
is a band of QPF that spreads east across the area Saturday
afternoon and evening, with some frontogenesis response and
differential cyclonic vorticity advection with a modest 500 mb
shortwave trough.

ECMWF is more widespread than the GFS with the areal coverage of
the QPF. Kept PoPs going for Saturday afternoon and especially
Saturday evening. Clouds over the area may limit highs a bit, with
lower to mid 60s.

Temperatures cool Saturday night into Sunday, as the high moves
through. Warm air advection then kicks in once again for Monday,
before a cold front moves east through the region Monday night or
Tuesday. There is some timing differences this far out with the
frontal passage, with the ECMWF slower and the GFS faster.

Warm temperatures should return Monday, with mid to upper 60s at
least. It could get warmer than that. Kept lower end PoPs for
Monday night in northern portions of the area for now, with a
passing 500 mb vorticity maximum in northern and central
Wisconsin.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Widespread rain will lower cigs from MVFR to IFR today, as
surface low pressure tracks from central Iowa this morning, to
northern Indiana by late this evening. Look for strong southeast
winds to develop this morning, especially for the KMKE/KUES/KENW
TAF sites. A few gusts will be pushing 30kts at times.

The rain will diminish from west to east this afternoon, with
light rain and drizzle continuing into the evening. All the
rain/drizzle should end by sunrise Thursday. But, cigs will likely
remain IFR through about 12z Thursday, then gradually lift
thereafter. Winds will diminish quickly this evening.

MARINE...

Look for gale force southeast winds developing this morning, and
continuing into the early evening. This is in response to an
intense low pressure system tracking from central Iowa this
morning, to northern Indiana by later this evening. The winds will
diminish overnight, with lighter northerly winds expected on
Thursday.

Low pressure tracking by to the north of the area on Friday will
generate gusty southerly winds, that will likely result in small
craft advisory conditions, for Friday into Friday night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...GALE WARNING until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

UPDATE...Cronce/Hentz
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Wood
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 26, 9:43 AM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-271445-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
943 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.75 INCH RANGE.  THIS RAIN
WILL CAUSE RISES IN AREA RIVERS...LIKELY SENDING A FEW ABOVE
BANKFULL STATE. URBAN AREAS COULD SEE STREET FLOODING AS DRAINAGE
SYSTEMS CLOG DUE TO FALLEN LEAVES.

BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LMZ643>646-271445-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
943 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG
EAST GALES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS
RETURNING BY THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 26, 9:04 AM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WINDSOR                 43.22N 89.34W
10/26/2016  M2.51 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL FROM TIME OF OBSERVATION.
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 26, 9:09 AM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
909 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W WESTFIELD           43.88N 89.54W
10/26/2016  M1.72 INCH       MARQUETTE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 1 AM 10/26. RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 26, 9:32 AM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BLUE MOUNDS             43.02N 89.83W
10/26/2016  M2.30 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 26, 9:54 AM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SUN PRAIRIE             43.18N 89.23W
10/26/2016  M2.30 INCH       DANE               WI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 26, 10:02 AM CDT, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1002 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE WAUKESHA          43.00N 88.23W
10/26/2016  M1.04 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT 10/26. RELAYED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Oct 26, 10:15 AM CDT, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BEAVER DAM              43.47N 88.84W
10/26/2016  E2.00 INCH       DODGE              WI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 26, 10:59 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXSauk4 days
Oct 26, 10:59 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXSauk5 days
Oct 26, 10:59 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningMKXLafayette46 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.