Alert archive / Wisconsin / Frost Advisories in 2016
Frost Advisory 7, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this frost advisory at Oct 12, 2016, 3:38 AM CDT for 16 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Oct 13, 2016, 2:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2016, 3:38 AM CDT (08:38 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 13, 2016, 2:00 AM CDT
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2016, 9:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1566 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 409 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
719 WWUS73 KMKX 120838 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 338 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... .MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WILL END BY TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-121645- /O.NEW.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.161013T0700Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 338 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. && $$ KAVINSKY
6 follow-up statements
979 WWUS73 KMKX 121552 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... .MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-130000- /O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.161013T0700Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 1052 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY... A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. && $$ WOOD
519 WWUS73 KMKX 122020 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... .MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES...COLD TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-130430- /O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.161013T0700Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 320 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY... A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. && $$ WOOD
271 WWUS73 KMKX 130204 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 904 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... .MUCH COOLER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE STATE OF IOWA MAY STILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS CLEARINGS SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE REGION. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-131015- /O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.161013T0700Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 904 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY... A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. && $$ MG
428 WWUS73 KMKX 130833 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 333 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EARLY THIS MORNING... .CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AND DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH 8 AM CDT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FROST...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-131400- /O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 333 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. * TEMPERATURE...FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AT LEAST AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. && $$ MBK
746 WWUS73 KMKX 131143 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 643 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...AREAS OF FROST EARLY THIS MORNING... .CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE AREAS OF FROST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 8 AM...THEN RAPIDLY MELT. THE FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-131400- /O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 643 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. * TEMPERATURE...LOW TO MID 30S. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AT LEAST AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT YOUR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. && $$ MBK
523 WWUS73 KMKX 131358 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 858 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE AREA... .LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RISING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>070-131500- /O.EXP.KMKX.FR.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-161013T1400Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK- WALWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD... NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN... FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE... OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY... PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM... WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD... DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...MADISON...WATERTOWN... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN... MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON... BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD... JANESVILLE...BELOIT...WHITEWATER...DELAVAN...ELKHORN... LAKE GENEVA...EAST TROY 858 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING... THE FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RISING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. $$ WOOD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Oct 11, 9:52 PM CDT, 5 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 9:52 PM CDT, 5 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
952 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016
.UPDATE...Rain will become likely after sunrise on Wed as a
shortwave trough moves across srn WI while being followed by
a strong cold front. The showers will be near and along the front
although postfrontal showers are also expected via low to mid
level frontogenesis in the colder air. Brisk nwly winds and falling
temps are expected but will be delayed until the afternoon for se
WI given the later timing of the front.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A low level jet will be over south-central WI overnight. Wind shear
is likely for south-central WI, including MSN and UES TAF sites. It
is borderline at MKE and ENW but decided to include it in TAFs given
the following: an AMDAR sounding at 01Z leaving Appleton shows 30
knots at 1600 ft and recent MKX radar wind profile shows 40 kts at
2000 feet.
A strong cold front will move across the region on Wednesday. Gusty
northwest winds are expected during the day along with rain
showers. Ceilings will likely drop to 1000 to 1500 ft for a few
hours as the front moves through. 600 to 800 ft ceilings are possible
at times. Ceilings will lift in the evening after the
frontal passage. Visibilities should be MVFR or better.
&&
.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at 3 pm Wed and
continues for much of Wed nt. A strong cold front will pass by
early afternoon with brisk and gusty nwly winds to follow. High
pressure and lighter winds will then prevail on Thu.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.
Clouds will continue to move out of the area by early this evening,
with subsiding air in the wake of a 500 mb shortwave trough. Gusty
south winds should linger until early evening, when developing
inversion cuts off mixing in the low levels.
Mostly clear skies are expected this evening, before more clouds
gradually move east into the region later tonight into Wednesday.
The light south winds should help temperatures remain mild tonight,
with lows in the mid 50s in most areas.
The strong cold front is still expected to slide east across the
area Wednesday morning, exiting the east by early afternoon. Fairly
strong frontogenesis response seen from NAM/GFS with the front. In
addition, there should be fairly strong differential cyclonic
vorticity advection with approaching 500 mb shortwave trough
Wednesday afternoon. Area forecast soundings saturate from west to
east on Wednesday. Thus, high PoPs for rain showers still look good
for Wednesday.
Winds will quickly shift to the northwest behind the front Wednesday
afternoon, and become gusty within a tight pressure gradient. Strong
cold air advection should drop temperatures during the afternoon
from west to east. Highs from the mid 50s northwest, to upper 60s
southeast, will be in the morning, before the front moves through.
Wednesday night and Thursday...Forecast Confidence...High
The base of the large northern stream trough moves across the
Lake Superior and Wisconsin area Wednesday night before reaching
the Great lakes Thursday. There is still some weak upper
divergence and 700 mb upward motion early Wednesday evening before
moderate downward motion moves across southern Wisconsin late
Wednesday night. Forecast soundings show strong drying above 850
mb with only a shallow layer of moisture at the bottom the the
inversion. Even so expect the stratocumulus to clear over much of
the area as low level drying also occurs. Upper 20 dewpoints push
into south central Wisconsin with surface high pressure centered
over Iowa by sunrise Thursday.
With diminishing winds, expect frost south Central and patchy/areas
of frost inland areas southeast. Surface winds may be just high
enough to keep frost from the Milwaukee and urban areas of the
southeast.
The center of the surface High moves across northern illinois
Thursday. Forecast soundings are very dry with little in the way
of afternoon fair weather cumulus.
Thursday night and Friday...Forecast Confidence...High
A brief period of upper level zonal flow Thursday night gives way
to ridging across the Upper mississippi Valley Friday.
The center of the surface high is across the Great Lakes Thursday
night with ridging still across much of the forecast area into the
late night before weakening towards sunrise.
GFS forecast soundings are very dry Thursday evening, with some
moistening around 600 mb indicating some altocumulus potential in
the developing mid level warm advection. Surface dewpoints remain
low, so more frost potential across the forecast area, with the
higher potential over southeast Wisconsin, especially inland.
The surface high moves off with light south winds and a warming
trend begins Friday.
LONG TERM...
Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence...Medium
A strong mid/upper trough moves across the southern Canada and
the Plains Saturday night before swinging northeast across
Wisconsin Sunday morning. The 00Z ECMWF is a little faster and
more north with the trough.
A cold front with a band of showers, moves across Wisconsin
Saturday night with a weak high Sunday across the area.
Monday and Tuesday...Forecast Confidence...Medium
A west/southwest upper flow develops across the plains to
Wisconsin, with one shortwave reaching the Lake Superior area
Sunday night. This is stronger on the 00Z ECMWF. Then a strong
trough/upper low moves across the Upper Mississippi valley and
Lake Superior area Tuesday. The ECMWF is a little faster and
farther north.
The GFS brings as low across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin
Monday night and Tuesday, with the ECMWF faster and farther north,
being north of lake Superior by Monday afternoon.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR conditions are expected for tonight into Wednesday across TAF
sites. Clouds will continue to move out of the area into early this
evening, as drier air works into the area from the west. South winds
will remain gusty until early evening. Some gusts to 20 knots or so
are expected. Winds may shift to the southeast for a time until
early evening at Milwaukee and Kenosha.
Winds at 1500 to 2000 feet above ground level will be southwest
around 35 knots between 03Z and 09Z Wednesday. Conditions will be
borderline for low level wind shear during this time.
Mostly clear skies are expected for the rest of this evening, before
clouds move east into the area later tonight into Wednesday. MVFR
ceilings are expected by Wednesday afternoon, with some below 1000
feet above ground level possible later in the day.
Light south winds tonight into early Wednesday will shift to the
northwest quickly by early afternoon, as a strong cold front moves
east through the area. Gusty northwest winds are expected Wednesday
afternoon and early evening, before slowly weakening. Gusts to 20
knots are expected at Madison, with gusts to 25 knots at the eastern
TAF sites.
Rain showers should move east through the area with the cold front
Wednesday morning, continuing in the afternoon behind the front.
Visibilities should remain VFR category, with local MVFR ceilings
possible.
MARINE...
South to southeast winds can be expected into early this evening.
Occasional gusts to around 20 knots can be expected, with a few
possibly reaching 25 knots.
A strong cold front moves east across Lake Michigan Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. A strong push of cold air in its wake
should result in frequent gusts to 25 knots reaching the lake
surface. So, a Small Craft Advisory will be issued for
later Wednesday afternoon into late Wednesday night.
&&
.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday
for LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday
for LMZ643-644.
&&
UPDATE...Gehring
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...HentzHazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 3:20 PM CDT, 12 hours 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-122030- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PATCHY FROST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LMZ643>646-122030- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SOUTH WIND GUSTS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HENTZ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
Nearby
Frost Advisories in Wisconsin, 2016Every frost advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.