Alert archive / Wisconsin / Flood Watches in 2016

Flood Watch 1, NWS Milwaukee, WI

September 6, 201616 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this flood watch at Sep 6, 2016, 2:50 PM CDT for 16 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Sep 6, 2016, 7:57 PM CDT. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 6, 2016, 2:50 PM CDT (19:50 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 6, 2016, 7:57 PM CDT
Expired
Sep 7, 2016, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Milwaukee, WI
Flood severity
None

Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2016-09-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 583 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2016-09-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 193 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
583 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1042 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
193 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

207 
WGUS63 KMKX 061950
FFAMKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS 
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY MOIST. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. WHERE THE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE..

WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067-068-070400-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FA.A.0001.160907T0600Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...BARABOO...
REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...
LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON...BELMONT...ARGYLE...
BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN... 
  GREEN LAKE...IOWA...LAFAYETTE...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. 

* FROM 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ051-052-058>060-064-065-069-070400-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FA.A.0001.160907T1200Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-
ROCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...
SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...MEQUON...
CEDARBURG...GRAFTON...WATERTOWN...FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...
WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN...MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...
JANESVILLE...BELOIT
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND 
  SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ROCK. IN SOUTHEAST 
  WISCONSIN...DODGE...JEFFERSON...OZAUKEE...WASHINGTON AND 
  WAUKESHA. 

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

HENTZ
6 follow-up statements
800 
WGUS63 KMKX 070057
FFAMKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...PERIODIC HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.
WHERE THE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE..

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-070900-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FA.A.0001.160907T0057Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...MEQUON...
CEDARBURG...GRAFTON
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE...MARQUETTE AND 
  SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...DODGE...OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH 
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL 
  BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ062-063-067-068-070900-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.160907T0600Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...
BARNEVELD...MADISON...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON...
BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...DANE...GREEN...IOWA AND LAFAYETTE. 

* FROM 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH 
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL 
  BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ064-065-069-070900-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.160907T1200Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-ROCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...
WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN...MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...
JANESVILLE...BELOIT
757 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  ROCK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA. 

* FROM 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH 
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL 
  BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
MG
663 
WGUS63 KMKX 070839
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEN COMBINED WITH RAIN THAT FELL ON TUESDAY. RADAR
ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY
FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS A WEST TO EAST BAND IN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FROM SAUK COUNTY EAST TOWARD SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS EVENING.

WIZ062-063-067-068-071645-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...
BARNEVELD...MADISON...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON...
BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD
339 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...DANE...GREEN...IOWA AND LAFAYETTE. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
  TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-071645-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...MEQUON...
CEDARBURG...GRAFTON
339 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE...MARQUETTE AND 
  SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...DODGE...OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
  WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. 1 TO 3
  INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY FELL OVER THIS REGION ON TUESDAY...SO ANY
  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY QUICKLY
  LEAD TO FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ064-065-069-071645-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.160907T1200Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-ROCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...
WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN...MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...
JANESVILLE...BELOIT
339 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  ROCK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA. 

* FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
  TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

HALBACH
212 
WGUS63 KMKX 071521
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER 5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN COMBINED WITH RAIN THAT FELL ON TUESDAY.
RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
ALREADY FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS A WEST TO EAST BAND IN SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM SAUK COUNTY EAST TOWARD SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS EVENING.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063-067-068-072330-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...MEQUON...
CEDARBURG...GRAFTON...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON...BELMONT...ARGYLE...
BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD
1021 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN...GREEN LAKE... 
  IOWA...LAFAYETTE...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST 
  WISCONSIN...DODGE...OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
  TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ064-065-069-072330-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-ROCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...
WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN...MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...
JANESVILLE...BELOIT
1021 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  ROCK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED 
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS 
  TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
SPM
336 
WGUS63 KMKX 072131
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
431 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
OVER 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN COMBINED WITH RAIN THAT FELL
ON TUESDAY. RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS A WEST TO EAST BAND
IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM SAUK COUNTY EAST TOWARD SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS EVENING.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063-067-068-080545-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...HOWARDS GROVE...
OOSTBURG...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...MEQUON...
CEDARBURG...GRAFTON...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON...DARLINGTON...SHULLSBURG...BENTON...BELMONT...ARGYLE...
BLANCHARDVILLE...MONROE...BRODHEAD
431 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 
  AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTH 
  CENTRAL WISCONSIN...COLUMBIA...DANE...GREEN...GREEN LAKE... 
  IOWA...LAFAYETTE...MARQUETTE AND SAUK. IN SOUTHEAST 
  WISCONSIN...DODGE...OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. 

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
  TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ064-065-069-080545-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-ROCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...
WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN...MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO...
JANESVILLE...BELOIT
431 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  ROCK. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA. 

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS
  TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
SPM
055 
WGUS63 KMKX 080002
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
702 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOODING EARLY TONIGHT...

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BUT THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
RAINFALL TO DRAIN AWAY. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATED ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2
HOURS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE
REMAINING COUNTIES PROBABLY BEING CLEARED FROM THE WATCH PRIOR TO
THE 1 AM CDT EXPIRATION.

WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062>064-067>069-080115-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-IOWA-DANE-
JEFFERSON-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...WESTFIELD...OXFORD...
NESHKORO...ENDEAVOR...BERLIN...PRINCETON...MARKESAN...
FOND DU LAC...BARABOO...REEDSBURG...PRAIRIE DU SAC...SAUK CITY...
PORTAGE...COLUMBUS...LAKE WISCONSIN...LODI...BEAVER DAM...
WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...DODGEVILLE...MINERAL POINT...BARNEVELD...
MADISON...WATERTOWN...FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...DARLINGTON...
SHULLSBURG...BENTON...BELMONT...ARGYLE...BLANCHARDVILLE...
MONROE...BRODHEAD...JANESVILLE...BELOIT
702 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. 

$$

WIZ052-059-060-080315-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHEBOYGAN-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...
HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...
MEQUON...CEDARBURG...GRAFTON
702 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... 
  SHEBOYGAN. IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON. 

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY

* A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE
  AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
  EARLY TONIGHT.

* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER-COVERED
  ROADS...OVERFLOWING DRAINAGE DITCHES AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

WIZ065-080315-
/O.CON.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAUKESHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...NEW BERLIN...
MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO
702 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREA...WAUKESHA. 

* UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY

* A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE
  AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
  EARLY TONIGHT.

* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER-COVERED
  ROADS...OVERFLOWING DRAINAGE DITCHES AND FLOODED BASEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
497 
WGUS63 KMKX 080045
FFAMKX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
745 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016


WIZ052-059-060-065-080145-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160908T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHEBOYGAN-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-WAUKESHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLYMOUTH...SHEBOYGAN FALLS...
HOWARDS GROVE...OOSTBURG...WEST BEND...GERMANTOWN...HARTFORD...
MEQUON...CEDARBURG...GRAFTON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...
NEW BERLIN...MENOMONEE FALLS...MUSKEGO
745 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE BARABOO RIVER BASIN
WAS THE HARDEST HIT BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 TO 30
HOURS. THE BARABOO RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE AT SOME
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AT ROCK SPRINGS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 

$$

MG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 6, 1:11 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 1:11 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
111 PM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.UPDATE...

Showers and a few thunderstorms developed along an outflow
boundary and are located from near Darlington northeast to near Fond
Du Lac. These showers are weakening as they push off to the
northeast.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected this evening into
tonight as an upstream wave approaches. SPC slight risk area looks
good, as developing storms will be able to tap into 40 to 45 knots
of effective shear, juxtaposed with around 2 kJ/kg of MLCAPE.
Localized heavy rainfall could also be an issue tonight with
precipitable water values around 1.8 inches, warm cloud depth
around 3.5 to 4 km, and MBE velocities near 10 knots.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Outflow boundary generated a few showers, which are pushing off to
the east northeast early this afternoon. Odds of these hitting any
of the TAF sites is low. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening. Predominately
VFR conditions are expected into the evening, but lower CIGS and
VSBYs are possible in any thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...southwest winds will likely become more south to
southeast with a lake breeze.  May be a few south to southwest gusts
to 25 knots this afternoon close to shore, but not enough confidence
to issue Small Craft Advisory. Better chance for a storm north of
North Point Light both today with storms likely tonight, and periods
of storms Wed into Wed night.

&&

.BEACHES...southwest winds will likely become more south to
southeast with a lake breeze.  May be a few south to southwest gusts
to 25 knots this afternoon close to shore, but not enough confidence
to issue Small Craft Advisory. Better chance for a storm north of
North Point Light both today with storms likely tonight, and periods
of storms Wed into Wed night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium

Low level mixing helping keep fog at bay early this morning, however
some pockets of light fog in susceptible areas possible for several
hours.  Focus this period on increasing shower and tstorm threat
through the next 24 hours.  Low level jet currently focusing
thunderstorms across the central Plains and farther ENE across
southern MN into northern WI.  Mesoscale convective system over
southeast SD likely to spawn convective eddy that will progress
northeast along baroclinic zone into northern WI later this morning.
Far northern portions of CWA may be grazed by enhanced forcing from
this feature today.  In addition, although low level jet will be
weakening this morning, it will be pivoting eastward into southern
and central WI today.  This will build the already high column
moisture as precipitable water increases to around 2 inches.  Cape
values will increase to 1500-2500 j/kg this aftn.  Increasing
moisture convergence and weak low level frontogentical forcing this
aftn so will continue chance for tstorms.  Better chance this
evening and during the overnight as nose of low level jet briefly
strengthens over southern half of WI before pivoting farther east as
the low level winds turn more west-southwest.  Also better chance
for storms tonight as upstream mid-level short wave over the central
plains moves across central WI during the overnight.  Northern two
tiers of CWA more susceptible to a period of heavier rain overnight
as Corfidi Vectors less than 10 kts most of the night and NAM
indicating low level moisture convergence aligned with 850-300mb
steering flow.  Will hold off on issuing Flood Watch as this area
has been dry for the past week but it will need to be watched
closely today.

Other concern is that daytime temperatures likely to peak in the
upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s. This
will likely push the Heat Index into the middle to upper 90s for
several hours this afternoon, with a few spots hitting 100.  Do not
expect triple digit HI readings to be very widespread at this point.
Also some concern for amount of cloud cover possibly retarding
daytime temperatures as well as small chance for precipitation.
Hence wl hold off on issuing Heat Advisory.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Warm air advection, the nose of the low level jet, weak shortwaves
and upper divergence in the right entrance region of a strong upper
jet will persist over central/southern WI Wednesday. The axis of
better shear and instability will very slowly drift east through
Wednesday night.

Any lingering showers/storms from Tue night should dissipate Wed
morning. There will probably be a lull in precip during the middle
part of the day Wednesday, and then thunderstorm chances increase
once again by mid afternoon. Clouds will likely hang around through
the day, which makes the temperature forecast tough. Warmest temps
will be in far southeast WI where more sunshine is expected.

Southern WI will be primed with tall, skinny CAPE of 1500 to 2000
j/kg and strong bulk shear around 40 knots on Wednesday afternoon.
The better forcing for thunderstorm development will probably occur
where there will be fewer clouds and on the nose of the low level
jet, somewhere in Iowa midday Wednesday. Expect any upstream
thunderstorms to evolve into more of a line of storms as they reach
WI Wed afternoon. There is a chance for some damaging winds with
storms in our area. SPC kept southern WI in a Marginal risk.

Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches through Wednesday
night which is extremely high for this time of year. Any storms that
develop will produce very efficient rainfall. The overall surface
trough will be very slow to move out of the region, so repeated
rounds of heavy rain are possible. The axis of storms and heavy rain
will slowly shift east Wednesday night as the surface low tracks
across northern WI.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The upper trough and associated surface low will exit southeast WI
Thu morning. There is a chance for showers to linger in the morning,
but the afternoon should be dry.

A mid level wave will lift out of the southwest states into the
Midwest Thu. This is part of remnants from a tropical system. Most
of that precip will stay just to our south for Thu night and
probably Friday. The ECMWF is showing a wetter solution for southern
WI than the GFS. Then a more amplified upper trough will slide
through the Upper Midwest later Friday into Saturday and could
interact with the Midwest moisture to bring another good round of
showers and a few storms to our area. Instability is very limited.
Both models show precip, but timing is different. The ECMWF is
faster than the GFS. Either way, Saturday afternoon looks dry with
breezy west to northwest winds.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure will bring a quiet and pleasant start to the new week.
Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend, right around normal
for early September.

Then warm and humid air will creep back into southern WI again
Monday.  The GFS is now more progressive with the next frontal
system Tue and Wed than the ECMWF, opposite from yesterday morning,
so there is plenty of uncertainty with precip timing that far out.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Low level mixing helping keep fog at bay, but
some light fog in susceptible areas possible early this morning,
especially at KENW.  Otherwise, expect some increase in clouds this
morning, as deeper column moisture spreads across the area.  Expect
clouds to mainly be VFR, but can not rule out an isolated shower or
storm today at northern TAF sites.  Better chance for a period of
storms tonight.

MARINE...Off shore winds will likely become more south to
southeast as lake breeze develops later this morning and afternoon.
However breezy south to southwest winds will develop over land and
will affect lakeshore and near shore waters close to shore at times.
Hence winds will be varying closer to shore.  May be a few south to
southwest gusts to 25 knots this afternoon close to shore, but not
enough confidence to issue Small Craft Advisory at this point.
Windiest period will be from 19z until 23z.  Small craft will need
to exercise caution this afternoon.  Better chance for a storm north
of North Point Light both today with storms likely tonight, and
periods of storms Wed into Wed night.

BEACHES...Expect winds right at the shore to vary from southwest
to southeast at times today.  Lake Breeze will try to develop,
however expect breezy south to southwest inland winds to affect
shore areas at times.  Hence these varying winds should keep wave
heights at Lake Michigan beaches mostly 2 to 4 feet resulting in a
Moderate Swim Risk today.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

UPDATE...SPM/HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...MRC
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 11:47 AM CDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1147 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-071700-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1147 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 100.

THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK TODAY AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORE. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
SHEBOYGAN TO DODGEVILLE LINE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MONROE LINE. BESIDES LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 95 OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-071700-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1147 AM CDT TUE SEP 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOUTH WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
WIND POINT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
NORTH POINT LIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 6, 5:48 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXGreen Lake42 min
Sep 6, 6:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMKXMarquette58 min

Nearby

Flood Watches in Wisconsin, 2016Every flood watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.