Tropical Storm Warning 1014, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
717 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend to the north through the end of the
week. Hurricane Matthew is forecast to lift along the southeast
coast through the weekend. Please see the latest forecast from
the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Matthew. Cool high
pressure will build in from the northwest early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 715 AM Fri...Current radar analysis indicates bands of
convective rain showers migrating across E NC this morning. This
is in association with prefrontal/coastal trough pushing inland
from the offshore waters. Very moist atms has developed as
evidenced by observed PW's around 2.4 inches per 00Z/06Z KMHX
soundings which is above the climo max for early October.

Bands of convective showers with ocnl thunder will continue
through much of today for southern 2/3 of the FA. Meso models
indicate localized 2+ inches of rain falling in short amounts of
time today, which is reasonable given the extreme moist
environment. Heavy rain today is disconcerting given the very
heavy rains expected this weekend from Matthew. For these reasons
have begun the FFA for most of the FA minus the northern and
northeastern zones beginning this morning.

Winds turn easterly and decrease somewhat as coastal trough
migrates inland, and therefore will most likely allow coastal
flood adv to expire at 8am this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Fri...There may very well be a break in the
widespread rain showers this evening as troughing and attendant
deep lift move west of the FA and flow becomes southeasterly in
response to approaching Hurricane Matthew from the southwest.
Outer bands from Matthew fcst to begin spreading into the SW zones
after around midnight, when serious flash flood threat will begin
as PW's continue to surge through the 2.5 inch range or above per
model soundings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Uncertainty remains regarding the track of
Hurricane Matthew, however guidance trends support the latest
official NHC track, keeping the center of Matthew south of the
area. However, latest models runs now take it slightly further
north and closer to the NC coast before pushing eastward.
Residents of Eastern NC should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

Friday Night through Sunday...The forecast will continue to be
very dependent on the track of Hurricane Matthew which is
currently forecast to track along the SE coast Sat, then push
east off the SC coast Sat night into Sunday pushing further back
to the south Sunday night...though uncertainty continues regarding
the track. The latest 00z GFS/ECMWF guidance both track Matthew
slightly further to the north off the NC coast before pushing
eastward. A slight northward shift in the track could impact the
current forecast and expected impacts...mainly a stronger wind
field and subsequent higher coastal flood threat. Based on the
latest NHC track, Tropical Storm force winds will still be
possible along the southern coast...in addition to widespread
heavy rainfall, minor coastal flooding/erosion, dangerous surf and
rip currents. At this time the main threat still looks like the
potential for significant rainfall across the area combined with
minor coastal flooding...which could result in moderate inundation
in some locations. A Flash Flood Watch continues across the area
into Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Sat into
Sunday morning...with storm total rainfall 6-12 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 15 inches possible. WPCs excessive
rainfall outlook has ENC in a moderate to high.

Monday through Friday...Expecting our first touch of fall as high
pressure builds into the area from the north with cooler and drier
conditions...though uncertainty remains regarding the track of
Matthew. Latest 00z GFS/ECMWF guidance shows Matthew lingering off
the SE coast, and pushing back southward toward Florida and the
Bahamas Monday into Tuesday. Some coastal showers will be possible
through mid week, but did not make sig changes to previous
forecast. Low level thickness values support highs in the upper
60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday, then warming into the mid to
upper 70s Wed through Fri. Lows Monday/Tuesday mornings will be in
the lower 50s inland to low 60s along the coast...some guidance
shows lows getting into the upper 40s inland Monday and Tuesday
mornings, then warming a few degrees mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Saturday/...
As of 305 AM Friday, deep low-level moisture and occasional
showers will lead to widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings early this
morning which will improve slightly to MVFR during the afternoon
before dropping back to low-end MVFR with occasional IFR later
this evening and tonight. Gusty NE winds will continue and should
preclude much in the way of fog formation.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Widespread sub-VFR conditions Saturday and
Sunday...with heavy rain from Hurricane Matthew. Heaviest rain
will likely be Sat into the first part of Sunday. Conditions
should gradually improve Sunday night with diminishing rain and
wind...with VFR Mon and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Latest buoy obs still indicate high seas of 6
to 9 feet, highest central waters. Winds are backing easterly
across the marine domain as coastal trough moving ashore, with
speeds of 15 to 20 kt. Persistent onshore flow will keep seas
elevated mainly 6 to 8 feet...poss some 9 footers central and srn
waters. Winds back to more southeasterly direction tonight as
influence of Matthew begins to affect the southern coastal waters
with speeds correspondingly increasing and seas building.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 540 AM Fri...A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the
waters south of Cape Lookout for this weekend. The forecast will
continue to be very dependent on the track of Hurricane Matthew
which is currently forecast to track along the SE coast Saturday,
then push east off SC Sat night into Sunday. However, uncertainty
remains regarding the track. The latest 00z GFS/ECMWF guidance
both track Matthew slightly further to the north off the NC coast
before pushing eastward. A slight northward shift in the track
could impact the current forecast and expected impacts...mainly a
stronger wind field and subsequent higher seas. Based on the
current track, Tropical Storm Force winds will still be possible
across mainly the southern and central waters Sat into Sunday as
Matthew moves to the south. Seas will continue to build this
weekend with increasing flow and long period swell from
Matthew...with seas 10 to 20 FT Saturday and Sunday. Gusty winds
and rough seas will continue into Tue. Mariners are urged to
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 AM Fri...At this time the main threat still looks like the
potential for significant rainfall with the potential for serious
and life threatening flash flooding across the area. Extreme rain
amounts and tropical storm force winds will add to the threat for
coastal flooding, which could result in moderate inundation in
some locations. A Flash Flood Watch continues across the area into
Sunday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Sat into Sunday
morning...with storm total rainfall 6-12 inches, with locally
higher amounts up to 15 inches possible. WPCs excessive rainfall
outlook has ENC in a moderate to high risk. Given the wet ground
expect we will see potentially significant flooding if this much
rain does fall. River flooding will also be a serious concern if
high rainfall totals materialize.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM Fri...Persistent NE flow in combo with already high
water in the Pamlico Sound will lead to minor coastal flooding for
portions of Carteret...Craven and Pamlico counties thru this
morning. Winds and seas are forecast to subside a bit northern tier
overnight so will let high surf advisory come down N of Hat this
morning.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for NCZ044-079-080-
     090>095-098-104.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ093>095.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     Flash Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ029-045>047-081-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154-
     156.
     Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ158.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RF/TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CQD/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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