Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
249 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will bring unsettled weather to the area
through Saturday, before dissipating Saturday night. A cold front
will move through from the west on Monday bringing more showers
and thunderstorms. Cool high pressure will build from the north
midweek leading to drier and less humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Friday...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along
the sea breeze and stalled frontal boundary this afternoon.
Additional coverage is expected as shortwave energy crosses the
region this evening, and encounters the deep moisture present
across E NC. Effective bulk shear around 35 kts east of Highway 17
and 20-25 knots further west will support multicell structures
with the possibility of damaging wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...Scattered convection will linger into the
evening but looks to dissipate overnight. Kept likely pops in
overnight for the coastal sections south of Oregon Inlet and out
into the coastal waters where convection could persist. It will be
fairly cloudy Saturday morning which could limit heating, but
still think most of the region will reach the upper 80s to near
90. A few shortwaves will cross the region Saturday, and combined
with the adequate instability in the form of CAPE values likely
between 2000-2500 J/kg, will lead to another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Have likely pops in for most of the day Saturday
with PWATS still near 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday, deep moisture ahead of cold front and
deepening mid-level trough will lead to a good coverage of
precipitation Saturday night into Sunday, before drier and cooler
air takes hold for most of next week.

Saturday night through Sunday night, with precipitable water over
2 inches ahead of a deepening mid-level trough, rain chances
remain in the high chance range Saturday night through Sunday
before tapering late Sunday night. The higher chances will be near
the coast Saturday night then will shift to inland areas Sunday.
There will be enough breaks in the cloud cover Sunday afternoon
to allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s and produce CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg and LI's of -4 to -6.

Monday through Friday, with the cold front moving offshore,
slightly cooler air arrives with much more comfortable dewpoints
in the 60s Monday morning and should remain in place through late
week as strong high pressure sets up camp off the coast of New
England. Based on the 2-meter temperature forecasts, expect the
coolest mornings to be Wednesday and Thursday. Expect daytime
highs generally in the mid/upper 80s with overnight lows low/mid
60s inland and generally upper 60s to around 70 coast through much
of next week, providing at least a small preview of fall weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday Afternoon/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the
short term. However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region this afternoon and evening, so some
brief sub-VFR conditions are likely in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. A low scattered cumulus deck will develop this
afternoon around 2500 ft and could produce brief VFR ceilings. Chances
for thunderstorms will likely continue overnight and into the day
Friday as a trough hangs over the region.

Long Term /Saturday evening through Wednesday/...
As of 230 PM Friday, Periods of sub-vfr conditions will be likely
Saturday night into Sunday night given a good coverage of showers
and thunderstorms as deep moisture combines with a deepening mid-
level trough. Much drier air arrives by early Monday and will
continue through most of the week with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/
As of 240 PM Friday...Winds will remain light between 5 and 10
knots through the period. Winds have transitioned back to SW this
afternoon for the waters south of Ocracoke and have turned S to
the north of Ocracoke. Winds will remain SW over the southern and
central waters, but will become variable over the northern waters.
Seas will mainly be 2 to 3 feet will some 4 footers well offshore
of Cape Lookout.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 235 PM
Friday, ahead of a strong cold front, winds will generally be SW
at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 feet Saturday night through Sunday
night. Winds become N/NE Monday and continue through the week at
10-15 knots. Per latest NWPS/SWAN model and Wavewatch, seas may
increase a bit to 3-5 feet behind the front, but no Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/SGK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
135 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-104-201745-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
135 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL, A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-201745-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
135 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL, A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
254 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

NCZ093-095-191945-
CARTERET-CRAVEN-
254 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CARTERET AND
SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN COUNTIES...

AT 253 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHERRY BRANCH
FERRY TERMINAL...OR 9 MILES EAST OF HAVELOCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD CITY...CHERRY BRANCH FERRY TERMINAL...
MICHAEL J SMITH AIRPORT AND FORT MACON STATE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3467 7669 3490 7687 3500 7674 3500 7671
      3501 7670 3485 7645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 317DEG 12KT 3491 7673

8

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

NCZ044-080-091-093-192015-
BEAUFORT-PITT-CRAVEN-LENOIR-
341 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
BEAUFORT...NORTHEASTERN LENOIR...NORTHWESTERN CRAVEN...AND
SOUTHEASTERN PITT COUNTIES...

AT 340 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR
GRIFTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...NEW BERN...KINSTON...AYDEN...GRIFTON AND VANCEBORO.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3542 7750 3542 7748 3545 7748 3548 7747
      3545 7713 3540 7688 3525 7690 3520 7696
      3516 7697 3515 7699 3512 7697 3525 7759
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 281DEG 22KT 3532 7735

TL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
414 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

NCZ044-079-080-091>094-192115-
JONES-BEAUFORT-GREENE-PITT-PAMLICO-CRAVEN-LENOIR-
414 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
BEAUFORT...NORTHEASTERN LENOIR...SOUTHWESTERN PAMLICO...CRAVEN...
NORTH CENTRAL JONES...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN PITT
COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRIFTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VANCEBORO. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...NEW BERN...KINSTON...AYDEN...JAMES CITY...GRIFTON...
VANCEBORO...FAIRFIELD HARBOUR...COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL AIRPORT...
KINSTON REGIONAL JETPORT...ALLIANCE...AURORA...BRIDGETON...
DOVER AND COVE CITY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3538 7761 3537 7759 3538 7756 3542 7751
      3541 7750 3542 7748 3544 7747 3550 7751
      3553 7750 3534 7669 3502 7686 3525 7770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 303DEG 13KT 3535 7750 3525 7707

SGK