Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly sink south through eastern North
Carolina overnight. The front will become stationary just off the
south coast Wednesday, linger through the end of the week, then
dissipate this weekend. Another front will move through from the
NW on Sunday. High pressure will pass to the north early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 pm Tue...Convection so far this afternoon has remained
along frontal boundary just south of the VA/NC border. As the
front continues to sink south expect additional development across
the remainder of the CWA which will carry over into the early
evening. With loss of daytime heating overall coverage and
intensity of storms will decrease so made no change to current
PoP distribution overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 pm Tue...Front will be along the south coast in the
morning and continue to slowly move south during the day. Surface
low is forecast to move SE along the boundary during the day,
generally following the NC/SC border. Have tapered PoPs
accordingly, with likely SW counties to low chance northern Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...Models remain in decent agreement keeping
the front stalled to the south Wednesday night into Thursday, with
waves of low pressure developing along it, as high pressure wedges
in from the NE. There is a better agreement that another mid level
trough will move across to north Sunday-Monday, resulting in
another weak front pushing into area.

Wednesday night through Friday night...Weak frontal boundary is
forecast to stall just south of the forecast area Wednesday night,
with waves of low pressure developing along it near the southern
coast into Thursday as high pressure wedges in from the NE. Will
see a slightly cooler and drier air mass spread in north to south.
Main threat of convective activity will be over southwest half of
area Thursday and Friday with intersection of front and weak sea
breeze action...and just slight chances overnight. Increased
diurnally driven pops slightly from previous forecast. Temps near
normal Thursday-Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday through Tuesday...High pressure will shift offshore and
inland trough will re-develop Saturday with low level SW winds
returning. Models continue to push another front through the area
late weekend into early next week, as upper low pushes through
southern Canada/NE US and trough off the east coast. The GFS
continues to be slightly faster moving the boundary through late
Saturday night and Sunday, while the ECMWF pushes it through
Sunday and Sunday night. Expect convection to remain primarily
diurnally driven and will continue slight chance to low chance
pops each afternoon with lesser chances overnight. At this time
the best chance for more widespread type coverage will be Sunday
with the front. Low level thickness values support temps near or
slightly above climo with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s...with
Sat and Sun the warmest days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.Short Term /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period. There will again be scattered convection this afternoon
and evening which could lead to some brief MVFR conditions.
Thunderstorm chances will diminish around midnight. Winds are out
of the SW this afternoon, but a front will cross the region
overnight and as the front approaches winds will become almost
calm overnight, and then turn to the NE Wednesday morning. There
will also be some low stratus that develop around daybreak
Wednesday but the coverage should be scattered enough to prevent
sub VFR conditions.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 250 PM Tue...Predominant VFR conditions expected through
the period. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon/evening. Sub-VFR low stratus and/or fog will be possible
each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/
As of 3 pm Tue...A slow-moving frontal boundary will sink south
through the marine area overnight and Wednesday. Winds will shift
to NE this evening across the northern waters north of Oregon
Inlet. Winds will shift to NE then E across the waters north of
Cape Lookout late tonight into Wednesday. For the waters south of
Cape Lookout, winds will shift from SW to E during the day
Wednesday. Seas at Diamond Shoals buoy have been 6 feet for the
past several hours. Other buoy reports are much lower. Will not
raise Small Craft Advisory, but will mention locally higher seas
in the upcoming zone package.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...A weak front will stall south of the
waters Wednesday night through late week...with waves of low
pressure developing along it near the southern coast. Post-
frontal northeast winds 10 to 15 knots will continue over northern
and central waters including Pamlico Sound with seas 2-4 feet,
highest north of Ocracoke. Latest guidance still does not show
much of a surge over 10 KT through the southern waters, though
could still see winds increase to 10-15 knots. Will continue to
indicate mainly easterly winds 15 knots or less for the
northern/central waters and E/ESE winds 5-15 knots for the
southern waters Wed night through Friday. SW winds return Friday
night and increase through the day Sat. Strongest winds look like
Sat night, and could see SW winds increase to 15-20 knots with
seas building to 3-5 feet. A weak cold front will push through the
waters from north to south Sunday and Sunday night. Could see NE
surge 10-15 knots behind the front with seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...HSA/CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-030815-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
413 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-030815-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
413 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
124 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ047-103-021800-
OUTER BANKS DARE-WESTERN DARE-
124 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MAINLAND DARE AND
EAST CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTIES...

AT 123 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BODIE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OREGON INLET TO SALVO...INCLUDING THE HATTERAS ISLAND FISHING PIER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3577 7545 3550 7546 3547 7561 3549 7561
      3559 7556 3569 7559 3558 7566 3557 7569
      3572 7576 3579 7547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 337DEG 5KT 3569 7561

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ045>047-081-022000-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND HYDE-WASHINGTON-WESTERN DARE-
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
DARE...SOUTHERN TYRRELL...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN
MAINLAND HYDE COUNTIES...

AT 257 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA TO 20
MILES NORTHEAST OF SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL. THE STORMS ARE
NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
TYRRELL...NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND HYDE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WESTERN DARE COUNTIES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3572 7656 3542 7602 3563 7583 3587 7634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 059DEG 4KT 3577 7637 3565 7612

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ029-022015-
MARTIN-
334 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 334 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
ROBERSONVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...JAMESVILLE...HAMILTON...OAK CITY...
EVERETTS...HASSELL AND BEARGRASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3606 7732 3601 7721 3593 7719 3594 7713
      3593 7712 3593 7709 3594 7705 3589 7702
      3589 7704 3586 7704 3586 7701 3590 7694
      3589 7692 3581 7689 3570 7705 3576 7720
      3583 7732 3591 7734 3600 7741 3607 7733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 311DEG 25KT 3596 7726

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
338 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ029-045>047-022045-
TYRRELL-WASHINGTON-WESTERN DARE-MARTIN-
338 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
DARE...SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN...TYRRELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 338 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WINDSOR TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBIA. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...ROPER...JAMESVILLE AND CRESWELL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3579 7581 3571 7685 3569 7693 3588 7698
      3590 7692 3586 7689 3582 7690 3581 7688
      3585 7684 3589 7683 3586 7677 3587 7674
      3594 7669 3595 7671 3593 7674 3599 7668
      3601 7669 3601 7651 3602 7647 3604 7602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 343DEG 6KT 3593 7697 3599 7608

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-022115-
TYRRELL-BEAUFORT-PITT-MAINLAND HYDE-WASHINGTON-WESTERN DARE-MARTIN-
429 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BEAUFORT...
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND DARE...MARTIN...TYRRELL...WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
MAINLAND HYDE AND NORTHERN PITT COUNTIES...

AT 428 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF TARBORO TO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PLYMOUTH TO NEAR COLUMBIA. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...WILLIAMSTON...PLYMOUTH...ROBERSONVILLE...ROPER...
JAMESVILLE...HAMILTON...HOBGOOD...OAK CITY...PARMELE...CRESWELL...
PANTEGO...EVERETTS...FALKLAND...HASSELL AND BEARGRASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3598 7719 3593 7718 3594 7705 3586 7703
      3590 7692 3581 7689 3585 7684 3589 7683
      3586 7677 3590 7672 3592 7599 3561 7580
      3555 7667 3567 7757 3575 7755 3580 7747
      3582 7735 3591 7734 3600 7741 3603 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 294DEG 9KT 3591 7739 3573 7690 3587 7629

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
449 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ029-045-080-081-022115-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-WASHINGTON-MARTIN-
449 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BEAUFORT...SOUTHEASTERN
MARTIN...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND HYDE
COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WILLIAMSTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
BEAUFORT...NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND HYDE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3566 7710 3583 7697 3567 7659 3545 7678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 304DEG 21KT 3572 7696

27