Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
311 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trof of low pressure will continue over the middle of the state
into next week, along with a warm, humid and unstable airmass.
Disturbances moving through the upper atmosphere, along with the
daily seabreeze, will result in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 pm Fri...Models in good agreement in the short term. Very
warm, humid and unstable airmass continues in place. Time sections
from GFS, ECMWF and NAM show low/mid level vort energy passing
through as well as lift. Rather well-defined theta-E ridge in
place too. Therefore will keep chance PoPs going overnight. Very
similar lows to last night, in the mid to upper 70s throughout.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 pm Fri...Same overall pattern continues. Made no change to
likely PoPs all areas inland from the coast with chance remainder.
Time sections from ECMWF and NAM show another well-defined vort
moving through during the time of max afternoon heating. GFS shows
a disturbance as well, but much weaker. With more convective
activity and more clouds, heat index values expected to reach
mainly the mid to upper 90s, so no Heat Advisory expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 pm Fri...Anomalously high heights build in over SE US and
Southern Plains Sunday. High pressure strengthens over the
Southern US Monday and Tuesday resulting in broad cyclonic flow
across most of the CONUS. A cold front will drop southeastward
from the Ohio Valley and will either stall or wash out over NC
Wednesday.

Extent of convection on Sunday depends on overnight convective debris
from overnight Saturday. With no interference CAPE values look to
be between 2000-3000 J/KG. Little to no shear is present however,
but there will be shortwave energy passing through E NC which will
provide a trigger for some storms. High temps Sunday will be in
the upper 80s with mid 80s expected along the coast. Low will be
in the mid/upper 70s.

Thunderstorm activity should be limited to the sea breeze on
Monday as weak High pressure builds from the Great Lakes region.
This should provide enough subsidence to limit convection in the
area. Temps will edge up a few degrees, into the low 90s in many
spots and upper 80s along the coast. Low temps low 70s inland and
mid/upper 70s near the coast.

Showers and thunderstorms will again pop on Tuesday and Wednesday
ahead of an approaching cold front. The boundary will then stall
over the region and looks to wash out Thursday. Thursday may be
mostly dry with the exception of some sea breeze showers. Friday
may also be dry as low pressure develops off the NC coast and
North winds filter some drier air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through 12Z Saturday/...
As of 1 pm Friday...VFR for the most part through the short term.
Very warm, humid, unstable airmass resides across the region.
Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and tonight with
weak shortwave energy passing through. Better coverage of
convection forecast Saturday as an upper level trof and associated
energy approach from the northwest. Southwest wind through the
period, 5-10 kts overnight and 10-15 kts Saturday.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 pm Fri...Generally VFR for the long term. Afternoon and
evening showers/storms will bring tempo sub VFR conditions each
day. Saturday looks to see the best coverage of storms. Sunday
will have moderate coverage at least, with lower chances expected
Monday. Showers and storms will develop on Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Places that get rain may see patchy fog
develop during the overnights through early morning hours. Winds
will be light SW through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sat/
As of 3 pm Fri...No change in weather pattern in the short term
with southwest flow continuing. North of Oregon Inlet winds will
be 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet tonight and Saturday. To the
south, winds will be 10-20 knots overnight and 10-15 Saturday.
Seas will run 3-5 feet overnight and 2-4 feet Saturday.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...SW winds will continue for the long term. Winds
remain generally 15 kt or less through the period, and this will
bring seas of 2-3 feet with some ocnl 4 ft sets outer ctrl/srn
waters. Daily bouts of scattered thunderstorms are possible
across the waters through the period, especially during the
overnight periods.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ045>047-080-
     081-092>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...HSA/SGK
MARINE...HSA/SGK