Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
632 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will remain across the Piedmont of NC
through Saturday. A shortwave trough will pass through the region
this evening. A weak cold front will move in from the northwest
Saturday night, become stationary over the area Sunday through
Tuesday, then dissipate on Wednesday. High pressure will build
offshore late next week with a trough of low pressure to the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 630 PM Fri...Updated to add severe ts watch in effect until
midnight for western FA. Current radar trends indicate fast moving
MCS in SW VA advancing ESE towards central NC. TOA tool indicates
this complex arriving across coastal plain counties in the next
couple of hours. Ahead of this main batch of strong/severe
convection, individual storms are developing and may move into the
FA before the main MCS arrives. Have updated text products/grids
to add likely TS for wrn zones with enhanced 'damaging wind gusts'
wording in ZFP. Storms should move out over the waters or weaken
by around midnight.

Previous discussion...As of 335 PM Friday...Latest satellite
imagery indicates a strong shortwave trough moving through central
Kentucky into West Virginia and towards western portions of NC.
WNW/W flow across the area will persist tonight. Models show well-
defined shortwave approaching from the NW this evening. Latest
blend of high- resolution guidance including convective-allowing
models suggests a line of thunderstorms will cross Eastern NC this
evening, coincident with the timing of the shortwave trough aloft.
Some isolated showers have developed across Martin county though
greater coverage is not expected until later this evening. Trended
pops with latest guidance and increasing to chance pops for inland
locations between 22-02Z. Forecast soundings indicate unstable and
moist conditions this afternoon and evening with MLCAPE values
exceeding 2200 J/KG and PWATS around 1.90 inches. 0-6km shear
values peak around 25-30 kt this evening. Should thunderstorms
become severe, the biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts and
hail. SPC has upgraded the western MHX CWA to Slight Risk for this
evening.

Showers/thunderstorms should exit off the coast around 06Z with
most areas becoming dry by 09Z. Overnight temps will remain warm
due to persistent westerly flow with a warm/moist airmass in
place. Minimum temps will fall into the mid 70s inland to around
80 along the coast and Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday/...
As of 345 PM Friday...Strong shortwave trough and associated
precip should be off the coast by sunrise Saturday morning. Heat
and humidity will be the main concern for Saturday as low level
thicknesses increase to 1430-1440 meters in westerly flow, with
dewpoints similar to today, low/mid 70s. Heat indices will range
105-108 degrees for areas away from the coast Saturday, thus have
issued a Heat Advisory for Eastern NC from roughly 15-23Z. Will
need to monitor conditions at Manteo/Kill Devil Hills where heat
may not be as high but dewpoints may reach higher values, possibly
leading to heat index values above 105. Confidence is low for the
Outer Banks Dare county so will hold of including it in the Heat
Advisory for now.

Forecast soundings indicate it will be fairly unstable Saturday
afternoon with MLCAPE above 2000 J/KG. PWATs fall back below 1.75
inches, while shear remains weak, and we will be lacking any
upper level forcing. Despite the negative moisture and shear
factors, cannot completely rule out a shower or thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, thus have added a small slight chance pop for
the afternoon hours from roughly 4-8pm EDT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...Drier air will continue over the region Sat
Night and Sunday with precip waters values dropping to around 1.5
inches. A weak front will drop into the area later Sat Night and
Sunday but given lack of moisture and lift will cont with pop
free fcst. Minimal change in temps with lows in 70s Sat Night and
highs mainly 90 to 95 Sunday...dewpts will be lower Sunday
keeping heat index values below 100.

Sunday night through Wed...Rain chances will increase through
this period with deep moisture returning as precip water values
increase to around 2 inches. Weak frontal boundary will remain in
the vicinity of eastern NC thru Tue then dissipate Wed. Given
daytime heating and the stalled boundary, will forecast mainly chc
pops for the period. Temps will be seasonal with highs upr 80s to
lower 90s and lows in the 70s.

Wednesday Night through Friday...A return to a more typical
summertime pattern for mid to late week with Bermuda high pressure
offshore and a weak trough inland leading to warm humid weather
and a daily low chance of showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures
remain hot with highs low/mid 90s inland and lows mid/upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /through Saturday Afternoon/...
As of 630 pm Fri...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period. However...brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible during
thunderstorms that will be entering the region from the west and
traveling SE. Tempo very gusty winds possible with the
strong/severe storms. Convection should exit by midnight and mid
level clouds will settle in after that. Skies should be mostly
clear Saturday morning under a light W wind.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Friday...Generally dry weather and VFR conditions
thru Sunday. Scattered SHRA/TSRA expected Sun Night thru Wed As
moisture increases and a front stalls in the vicinity. Still
think most of the time will be VFR but occasional sub VFR poss in
convection from time to time...also may see some patchy late
night fog/low stratus develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Short term /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate WNW
to WSW winds 5-15 kt with seas range mostly 2-4 ft across the
waters. The Piedmont trough will continue inland while the Bermuda
high remains offshore through Saturday. West flow today will back
slightly to southwest tonight. A strong shortwave trough aloft
will cross the waters late tonight and may bring a brief round of
thunderstorms across the Eastern NC coastal waters, and if they
hold together, could be strong wind gusts, so mariners are urged
to monitor potential MWS or SMW warnings for severe storms. Winds
will become mostly WSW Saturday and remain 5-15 kt, except for the
central waters where winds may build closer to 20 kt during the
afternoon hours. Seas will remain 2-4 feet tonight, with some 3-5
ft seas Saturday afternoon south of Diamond Shoals.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wed/...
As of 230 PM Friday...Weak front will sag into the region Sat
Night then stall in the vicinity through Tue and dissipate mid
week. Think srn tier will see predominately S/SW winds. Over
northern tier some periods of onshore E to NE winds will be poss
from time to time with front in area. Overall speeds look to
remain aob 15 kts with seas mainly 2 to 4 feet with outer central
and srn waters having best chcs to see the 4 footers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF/CTC
AVIATION...RF/TL/SGK
MARINE...RF/DAG/TL

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