Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...SCT TSRA...A FEW SVR...HAVE MOVED THRU THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND HAVE WEAKENED A BIT PAST HOUR AS GET CLOSER TO
COAST. SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
HOWEVER GIVEN SLOW WEAKENING TREND SEEN PAST HR AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING INSTAB EXPECT THREAT OF SEVERE IS LOWERING. WILL CONT
CHC POPS OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND QPF
ALONG CST LATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER EASTERN NC AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST BUT CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50% COAST AND 30-40% INLAND. THE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS THOUGH DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI
VALUES -3 TO -5 EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (LOWER 70S OUTER BANKS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES ANCHORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEEL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SFC LOW WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS (SCHC THUNDERSTORMS THUR
AFTERNOON) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT, INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG
THE OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN
RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY BECOMING HUNG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT, THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE KEPT OUT SCHC POP FOR NOW.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
IT IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SCT STRONG CONVECTION CROSSING RESULTING IN POSS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
ALONG WITH THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL. LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW
LVLS NEARLY SATURATED EXPECT PD OF IFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS AND
POSS SOME FOG AS WINDS GO LIGHT. IFR SHLD GRAD TRANSITION THRU
MVFR WED MORN WITH MAINLY VFR LATE MORN THRU AFTN. WILL AGAIN HAVE
THREAT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA WED THAT COULD BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SFC FLOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE
MOST POTENT BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACHING
SUNDAY WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...WINDS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL WATERS SO
WILL DROP SCA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE REALLY NOT
DEVELOPED TODAY BUT THE NWPS AND ESPECIALLY THE WAVEWATCH WAVE
MODELS INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BUT END IT AT 8 PM WHEN THE
WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE 10-20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT OUTER
WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WITH A
SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOWS BEHIND IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SATURDAY 2 TO 3 FEET.  SEAS BUILD BACK SUNDAY, 3 TO 5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1102 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-050315-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1102 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1009 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND CEDAR ISLAND            35.00N  76.33W
05/03/2016  M44 MPH          CARTERET           NC   MESONET

            NWS MARINE PLATFORM AT THE CEDAR ISLAND FERRY TERMINAL
            OBSERVED A 38 KNOT MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

0829 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 ESE ENGELHARD        35.43N  75.83W
05/03/2016  M77 MPH          AMZ135             NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WXFLOW SITE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PAMLICO SOUND OBSERVED
            A 58 KNOT MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

0850 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND FRISCO                  35.23N  75.61W
05/03/2016  M41 MPH          DARE               NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WXFLOW SITE IN FRISCO WOODS REPORTED A 36 KNOT MARINE
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

0858 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND AVON                    35.34N  75.50W
05/03/2016  M44 MPH          DARE               NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WXFLOW SITE IN AVON SOUND REPORTED A 38 KNOT MARINE
            WIND GUST.

0900 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND KHK RESORT              35.58N  75.47W
05/03/2016  M47 MPH          DARE               NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WXFLOW SITE AT KHK RESORT REPORTED A 41 KNOT MARINE
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

0902 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 W WAVES LANDING       35.57N  75.49W
05/03/2016  M43 MPH          AMZ135             NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WXFLOW SITE REAL SLICK NEAR WAVES REPORTED A 37 KNOT
            MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

0903 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND WAVES                   35.57N  75.47W
05/03/2016  M43 MPH          DARE               NC   WEATHER FLOW

            WXFLOW SITE IN WAVES REPORTED A 37 KNOT MARINE
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1600192
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600193
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600194
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600195
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600196
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600197
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600198

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1027 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             SNOW HILL               35.45N  77.67W
05/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

0825 PM     HAIL             AYDEN                   35.47N  77.42W
05/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       PITT               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

0835 PM     HAIL             2 SE AYDEN              35.45N  77.40W
05/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       PITT               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1600199
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600200
EVENT NUMBER MHX1600201

AUSTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             WINTERVILLE             35.53N  77.40W
05/03/2016  E0.75 INCH       PITT               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN WINTERVILLE...
            RELAYED THROUGH TWITTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1600202

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCZ046-081-040315-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND HYDE-
1042 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN TYRRELL
AND MAINLAND HYDE COUNTIES...

AT 1041 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF BELHAVEN TO NEAR SWAN
QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FAIRFIELD...SWINDELL FORK...GULL
ROCK...ENGELHARD...AND SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3530 7602 3531 7646 3540 7645 3555 7648
      3568 7604 3552 7583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 255DEG 38KT 3552 7643 3542 7638 3533 7644

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1114 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     FOUNTAIN                35.67N  77.64W
05/03/2016  E60 MPH          PITT               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WITH
            DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR FOUNTAIN ALONG THE WILSON/PITT
            COUNTY BORDER. REPORT RELAYED THROUGH FACEBOOK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1600203

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1131 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCZ044-079-091-092-040415-
JONES-GREENE-PITT-LENOIR-
1131 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LENOIR...NORTHWESTERN JONES...
SOUTHERN GREENE AND SOUTH CENTRAL PITT COUNTIES...

AT 1131 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LA GRANGE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINSTON...LA GRANGE...SNOW HILL...KINSTON REGIONAL JETPORT AND
HOOKERTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3538 7780 3540 7780 3543 7783
      3549 7782 3549 7746 3518 7748 3520 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 273DEG 25KT 3535 7778

DAG