Small Craft Advisory 108, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
325 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build in from the northwest through Sunday.
Low pressure will lift northeast along the coast Sunday night into
Monday followed by high pressure mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 325 PM Sat...High pressure will build over the area through
Sunday producing clear skies and light winds. Winds inland will
become calm overnight, especially along and west of Highway 17.
This will lead to strong radiational cooling which will result in
low temperatures in the upper 20s to 32 degrees. Will upgrade the
current Freeze Watch to a Warning. East of Highway 17 there is
better potential for low level mixing which will help to produce
slightly warmer minimum temperatures. A few sheltered locations
could briefly drop to freezing but sub freezing temperatures will
not be as widespread as further west. Lows at the beaches will be
in the lower to middle 40s where a Northerly breeze is expected to
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM Sat...High pressure centered over the area Sunday
morning will drift offshore in the afternoon, while a closed up
low advances toward the area from the SW. Associated surface low
will also begin to approach late with increasing clouds expected.
Could even a see a few showers toward evening SW zones. Highs will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The models have come into good agreement with the upper/surface
lows that will affect the area Sunday night and Monday. A faster
solution is favored with precipitation developing rapidly Sunday
evening and spreading NE. The bulk of the precipitation over the
western half of the area will occur prior to 12Z Monday and over
the eastern half 12-18Z Monday. Will up PoPs to likely/categorical
with this issuance. Precipitation should become more spotty and
lighter Monday afternoon as a mid level dry slot overspreads the
region. Although precipitation is expected to cut off, low clouds
could persist much of the day limiting high temperature potential.
The NAM (MET) MOS looked to warm for highs Monday due it's further
inland low track and sided with the cooler ECMWF/GFS solution of
a more eastward track and cooler highs mainly in the 60s coast and
50s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM Sat...Looking at a primary dry forecast this period
with near normal temperatures. Could see a lingering coastal
shower Monday evening otherwise W/NW flow will dominate through
Tuesday on the backside of the departing surface low. On
Wednesday a rather deep upper trof will drive a cold front
southwest, crossing the area in the afternoon. Moisture is very
limited so will indicate a dry forecast although a very light
shower or sprinkle would be possible. A large surface/upper ridge
builds into the region from the west Thursday and Friday with dry
weather and temps only a few degrees below average. The next cold
front will approach the area Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1250 PM Sat...High confidence in VFR conditions through the
TAF period as dry high pressure continues over the area through
Sunday. Strong radiational cooling expected inland tonight with
clear skies/light winds which could result in shallow ground or
steam fog especially at PGV. Confidence is low in this so will
maintain current VFR forecasts.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 1250 PM Sat... Sub-VFR conditions in widespread rain/low
clouds expected to develop Sunday night and continue into Monday.
Although the rain will taper off and end from the southwest Monday
afternoon/evening, the lower clouds/sub VFR conditions will likely
be lingering into Monday night. VFR/dry conditions are expected
again Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 325 PM Sat...Remaining SCA for the Pamlico Sound and near
shore waters will continue until 00Z early this evening. High
pressure will settle over the waters tonight and Sunday with
rapidly diminishing winds and seas expected. Northerly winds 15 to
25 KT will subside to 10 to 15 KT overnight then become Easterly
around 10 KT Sunday afternoon. Current 6 to 9 ft seas this
afternoon will subside to 2 to 3 ft late tonight and Sunday.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 325 PM Sat...Low pressure will move quickly northeast along
the coast Sunday night into Monday, with winds continuing to veer
from southeast to southwest during the period. Pressure gradient
is forecast to be moderate late Sunday night into Monday with
conditions just below advisory levels expected (winds 10 to 20 KT
and seas 3 to 5 ft). NW flow 10 to 15 KT is then expected Monday
night through Wednesday with 2 to 4 ft seas. The flow is forecast
to become more Northerly Thursday behind a cold front with seas
remaining 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ029-044-045-
     079-080-090>093-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this afternoon for
AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
AMZ150- 152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/HSA
AVIATION...JME
MARINE...JME/HSA

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