River Flood Warning 16, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

743 
WGUS82 KMHX 091908
FLSMHX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
308 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...
 
  Chicod Creek Near Simpson affecting Pitt County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas. Most flood deaths occur 
in automobiles when people try to drive through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio...local
radio...media or cable TV.

&&

NCC147-091938-
/O.CAN.KMHX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160809T1908Z/
/SIMN7.1.ER.160809T0435Z.160809T0845Z.160809T1720Z.NO/
308 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chicod Creek Near Simpson in Pitt County.
* At 2 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.8 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding of low lying areas adjacent to 
  Mobleys Bridge Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 7722 3557 7718 3554 7720 3551 7723
          3553 7727 3557 7725        

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will gradually dissipate as it lifts north of
the region today. Atlantic high pressure will build into the area
through the weekend. A slow moving cold front will approach the area
from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...Trends in the guidance are for much lower
chances for precipitation today, especially after 15Z when current
activity moving through the Albemarle Sound region moves out of
the area. Remnant frontal boundary is forecast to lift north and
dissipate today with much less convergence expected across eastern
NC. The subtropical surface/upper ridges are forecast to build
west into the Carolinas. 20-40M 5H 24 HR height rises will limit
forcing with differential heating of a still very moist airmass
the main trigger for convection. Will decrease PoPs to 20-30%
after 15Z highest northern zones where consensus of guidance
indicates better coverage. Lack of significant shear will again
limit storm organization but the atmosphere will become
moderately unstable with li's of -5 to -7 and MU CAPES 2500-3000
with PW values around 2" supporting torrential downpours. Highs
inland will be around 90 degrees and around 85 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...As high pressure surface and aloft builds
over the area the depth of moisture will decrease across eastern
NC as indicated in forecasts of 1000-5000 MB mean rh. With no mid
level shortwave expected to affect the area, the convective cycle
should be strongly diurnally driven with mainly dry conditions
expected after 00Z. Patchy fog is expected inland due to light
winds and moist soils from rains over the past several days.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 70s inland and mid
to upper 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will
dominate the extended forecast. This will result in near normal
summertime temperatures and mainly diurnally driven convection.

Wednesday through Friday...Sfc high pressure will be off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, while subtropical ridge builds back into the region
from the east. The high begins to push farther southeast Friday as
an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. Expect
mainly isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection as
southerly flow returns back with moist and unstable airmass, but
with ridging aloft...this will limit upper level forcing. Highs will
be near normal this week; expect highs around 90 inland to mid 80s
along the coast.

Saturday through Monday...an approaching cold front will start to
drop down from the Upper Mississippi valley as a shortwave trough
pushes down from the northern plains. This will cause the upper
level ridge to begin to break down. Continue to expect diurnally
driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Models continue to differ with the development of an area
of low pressure over the Gulf states. The ECMWF model continues to
show the low developing quicker and stronger versus GFS which is
slower and weaker. Now, both models agree, the bulk of the
moisture will stream well west and north of our area compared to the
08/00z run. Winds will remain SW and will keep temperatures in
the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...Best chance for IFR conditions will be
along and north of a boundary located roughly from Hatteras to
Kinston. Easterly low level flow in this region should help
maintain current low ceilings mainly vicinity of KPGV/KISO. Not
expecting any significant precipitation at the TAF sites overnight
but patchy light fog is likely with a brief period of MVFR
visibilities expected at KOAJ/KEWN. As diurnal heating commences
Tuesday could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings in the morning
as cumulus clouds develop. Not expecting as much coverage of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as better conditions shift
north. The very moist airmass will continue over eastern NC
however, and this should lead to the redevelopment of light fog
and/or low ceilings again late Tuesday night.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As 3 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions will dominate, outside of isolated
to scattered diurnally driven convection through the rest of the
period. Cannot rule out early morning low stratus and/or patchy fog
each morning as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...Light flow /15 KT or less/ will continue
over the waters through tonight as a weak boundary meanders
across the waters and finally dissipates. Winds are generally
NE/E over the northern areas and SE/S over the southern sections
with the flow forecast to become SE all waters this afternoon and
tonight. Seas will run 2-4 feet through the period.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Offshore high pressure will dominate the wind
flow across our coastal waters. Expect SE below 15 KT will persist
through Thursday night with seas mainly around 2-3 FT with some 4 ft
near the outer coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras through
Wednesday night. The high off the Mid-Atlantic coast will slide
farther southeast Friday allowing winds to become more southerly
and then southwest Saturday and Sunday. Winds will increase to
10-15 KT Friday as gradient tightens and slowly increase 15-20 kts
by Sunday afternoon. Seas will build back 2 to 4 ft Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-100845-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-100845-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
432 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.