Alert archive / Oregon / Wind Advisories in 2016
Wind Advisory 25, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this wind advisory at Mar 12, 2016, 2:01 PM PST for 7 counties in Oregon; Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Mar 13, 2016, 5:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 18 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 12, 2016, 2:01 PM PST (22:01 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 13, 2016, 5:00 AM PDT
- Expired
- Mar 13, 2016, 10:47 PM PDT
- In force
- 18 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1362 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 69 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 168 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 437 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
408 WWUS76 KMFR 122201 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 201 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 CAZ081-131200- /O.CAN.KMFR.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-160313T0300Z/ /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0014.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1200Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEED...MONTAGUE 201 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY... ...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY. * TIMING: WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY MORNING...PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR WEED. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WEED...GAZELLE...MONTAGUE. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL ALONG I-5 IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-131200- /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0014.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0015.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-160313T0300Z/ NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS... ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...SPRAGUE RIVER... LAKEVIEW 201 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY. * TIMING: WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY...PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: TODAY...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE: CHILOQUIN...KLAMATH FALLS...SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW...ALTURAS...MACDOEL. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE: FORT ROCK...SILVER LAKE...PAISLEY...ADEL...TULELAKE...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC COUNTIES. * IMPACTS: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. TRAVEL ALONG AREA ROADS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AWAY OR DAMAGED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ021-022-131200- /O.UPG.KMFR.HW.A.0014.160313T1200Z-160314T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.HW.W.0015.160313T1200Z-160314T0000Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTH BEND...BANDON...PORT ORFORD... BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH 201 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY. * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT... REACHING A PEAK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 45 TO 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG CAPES AND HEADLANDS. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: BROOKINGS...GOLD BEACH...PORT ORFORD...BANDON...AREA CAPES AND HEADLANDS. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT OR EVEN HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHWAY 101. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE DOWNED TREES...POWER OUTAGES...AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ023>026-131200- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1500Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN... GREEN...CANYONVILLE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...MEDFORD... ASHLAND 201 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY. * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...REACH A PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MEDFORD...ASHLAND...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...AGNESS...ROSEBURG...ELKTON...SUTHERLIN. * IMPACTS: DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FALLING TREES. WINDS MAY ALSO BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ BPN
5 follow-up statements
452 WWUS76 KMFR 130254 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 654 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-131500- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-160313T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0015.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS... ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...SPRAGUE RIVER... LAKEVIEW 654 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM PST THIS EVENING... * TIMING: STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY...PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE: CHILOQUIN...KLAMATH FALLS...SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW...ALTURAS...MACDOEL. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE: FORT ROCK...SILVER LAKE...PAISLEY...ADEL...TULELAKE...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC COUNTIES. * IMPACTS: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. TRAVEL ALONG AREA ROADS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AWAY OR DAMAGED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ORZ021-022-131500- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0015.160313T1200Z-160314T0000Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTH BEND...BANDON...PORT ORFORD... BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH 654 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY... * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...REACHING A PEAK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 45 TO 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG CAPES AND HEADLANDS. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: BROOKINGS...GOLD BEACH...PORT ORFORD... BANDON...AREA CAPES AND HEADLANDS. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT OR EVEN HAZARDOUS... ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHWAY 101. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE DOWNED TREES...POWER OUTAGES...AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ023>026-131500- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1500Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN... GREEN...CANYONVILLE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...MEDFORD... ASHLAND 654 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY... * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...REACH A PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MEDFORD...ASHLAND...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...AGNESS...ROSEBURG...ELKTON...SUTHERLIN. * IMPACTS: DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FALLING TREES. WINDS MAY ALSO BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ CAZ081-131500- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1200Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEED 654 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY... * TIMING: WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY MORNING...PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR WEED. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WEED...GAZELLE...MONTAGUE. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL ALONG I-5 IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$
637 WWUS76 KMFR 131005 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 305 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-132215- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0015.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1500Z-160314T0900Z/ NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS... ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...SPRAGUE RIVER... LAKEVIEW 305 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY... * TIMING: STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY...PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE: CHILOQUIN...KLAMATH FALLS...SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW...ALTURAS...MACDOEL. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE: FORT ROCK...SILVER LAKE...PAISLEY...ADEL...TULELAKE...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC COUNTIES. * IMPACTS: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. TRAVEL ALONG AREA ROADS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AWAY OR DAMAGED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ORZ021-022-132215- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0015.160313T1200Z-160314T0000Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTH BEND...BANDON...PORT ORFORD... BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH 305 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON... * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING A PEAK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 45 TO 50 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG CAPES AND HEADLANDS. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: BROOKINGS...GOLD BEACH...PORT ORFORD... BANDON...AREA CAPES AND HEADLANDS. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT OR EVEN HAZARDOUS... ESPECIALLY ALONG EXPOSED AREAS OF HIGHWAY 101. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE DOWNED TREES...POWER OUTAGES...AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. && $$ ORZ023>026-132215- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1500Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN... GREEN...CANYONVILLE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...MEDFORD... ASHLAND 305 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...REACH A PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MEDFORD...ASHLAND...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...AGNESS...ROSEBURG...ELKTON...SUTHERLIN. * IMPACTS: DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FALLING TREES. WINDS MAY ALSO BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ CAZ081-132215- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.160313T1200Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEED 305 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * TIMING: WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING...PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR WEED. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WEED...GAZELLE...MONTAGUE. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL ALONG I-5 IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ STOCKTON
843 WWUS76 KMFR 132127 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 227 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ORZ021-022-132230- /O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160314T0000Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 227 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. $$ CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-140900- /O.EXT.KMFR.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160314T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0900Z/ NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS... ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...SPRAGUE RIVER... LAKEVIEW 227 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY... * TIMING: STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE: CHILOQUIN...KLAMATH FALLS...SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW...ALTURAS...MACDOEL. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE: FORT ROCK...SILVER LAKE...PAISLEY...ADEL...TULELAKE...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC COUNTIES. * IMPACTS: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. TRAVEL ALONG AREA ROADS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AWAY OR DAMAGED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ORZ023>026-140300- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN... GREEN...CANYONVILLE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...MEDFORD... ASHLAND 227 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * TIMING: WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MEDFORD...ASHLAND...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...AGNESS...ROSEBURG...ELKTON...SUTHERLIN. * IMPACTS: DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FALLING TREES. WINDS MAY ALSO BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ CAZ081-140300- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEED 227 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * TIMING: WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. * WINDS: SOUTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR WEED. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WEED...GAZELLE...MONTAGUE. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL ALONG I-5 IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ SVEN
659 WWUS76 KMFR 140255 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 755 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ORZ023>026-140400- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN... GREEN...CANYONVILLE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...MEDFORD... ASHLAND 755 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... $$ CAZ081-140400- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0300Z/ CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WEED 755 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING... $$ CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-140900- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160314T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0900Z/ NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS... ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...SPRAGUE RIVER... LAKEVIEW 755 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY... * TIMING: STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE WARNING AREA. ADVISORY AREA WIND WILL CONTINUE AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR SUMMER LAKE. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE: CHILOQUIN...KLAMATH FALLS...SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW...ALTURAS...MACDOEL. * LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE: FORT ROCK...SILVER LAKE...PAISLEY...ADEL...TULELAKE...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LAKE...KLAMATH...AND MODOC COUNTIES. * IMPACTS: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE. TRAVEL ALONG AREA ROADS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AWAY OR DAMAGED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ SK
055 WWUS76 KMFR 140547 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1047 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 CAZ084-085-ORZ029>031-140700- /O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-160314T0600Z/ /O.CAN.KMFR.WI.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-160314T0900Z/ NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- 1047 PM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY OR WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. $$ SK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 12, 9:27 AM PST, 4 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 9:27 AM PST, 4 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...SNOW...WIND AND RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OREGON
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE WITH THE PAST FEW STORMS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IN
CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES WHILE SNOWFALL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS BUT ALSO IMPACT
EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ADJUST THE
MARINE HEADLINES WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN STORM
FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOWFALL AND
SNOW LEVEL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 3800 TO 4500 FEET. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL RISE EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING UP TO AROUND 5500
FEET AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN FALL AGAIN TO
4000 TO 4500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO 3000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE FINE TUNING THE WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH DECISIONS TO BE MADE REGARDING RAISING
HIGH WIND WATCHES TO WARNING LEVEL.
A GLANCE AT THE NEW 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATES A LOWER PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE ON TUESDAY THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION....FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MVFR
AND IFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH
AS THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA, ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE, AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN. ALSO EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FOR MID-
ELEVATIONS AND NEAR TOTAL OBSCURATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
PEAKS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
AT NORTH BEND...ROSEBURG...AND MEDFORD AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME TURBULENCE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL BE GREATEST THIS MORNING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 620 AM PST FRI 12 MAR 2016...A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
AND GRADUALLY DECREASE...EXCEPT FOR THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHERE THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS INSIDE OF 130W. THIS STORM WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE
EC AND GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING,
RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND MOVING INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
THEN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. IF THIS PANS OUT, THEN STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MARINE ZONES AND GALES
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WE'LL REACH STORM FORCE WINDS, SO WE'LL LEAVE
THE WATCH UP AND SEE OF THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IF NOTHING ELSE, GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A VERY HIGH AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL
MOVING IN SUNDAY MORNING WITH BREAKER HEIGHTS AROUND 33 FEET. PEAK
HIGH TIDE AT PORT ORFORD IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT 2:29 AM PDT AND
WILL STILL BE AROUND 3.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW, THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
SURF WARNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD
RESULT IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016/
12/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN INITIALLY SHOWS A
WAVE NUMBER OF THREE AROUND THE GLOBE...WHICH IS USUALLY A
STAGNANT OR RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THERE IS REX
BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...IT WILL MORPH TO A FOUR
WAVE PATTERN LATER ON TODAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RESUMPTION
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
CLOSER IN...IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME...A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS NOW
CLEARING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS BROUGHT SOME STRONG WINDS
TO SOME PARTS OF THE MEDFORD CWA LIKE THE SHASTA VALLEY...BUT THE
WINDS DID NOT REACH WARNING LEVELS. OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
HOWEVER...THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA...WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND
THE OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE GOT A GOOD SOAKING WITH MANY
AREAS GETTING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
NOW WANING...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE VERY SHORT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY 4000 TO 5000 FEET.
THERE'S A LOT MORE COMING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE SHORT WAVES
EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
LATER THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL TARGET WILL BE THE OREGON AND
WASHINGTON COAST...BUT WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT LOOKS MODERATELY WINDY AND WET...BUT NO WARNING LEVEL WINDS
OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SAME AREAS AS THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...THE MOUNT SHASTA
AREA...WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...AND THE COAST AND COAST RANGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING TO 3000-4000 FEET FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND 4000-5000 FEET EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOME
PASSES SUCH AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT MAY SEE SOME IMPACTS FROM SNOW
LATER TODAY. SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON THE SNOW.
THE HITS WILL KEEP ON COMING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS FROM THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN PROGRESS WHEN THE NEXT WAVE AND
IT'S ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE AND
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT ON STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIRECT MOST OF ITS ENERGY INTO OREGON. ONCE AGAIN...THE SAME AREAS
WILL GET THE MOST PRECIPITATION...BUT STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADE CREST. HIGH WINDS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN THE SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. THE CASCADES THEMSELVES WILL BE PRETTY WINDY AS WELL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE PASS LEVELS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 4000 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY THIS TIME FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE SAME
AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE COQUILLE RIVER FROM
MYRTLE POINT TO THE OCEAN...BUT AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON WEST OF THE CASCADES.
A MAJOR SNOW EVENT IS NOW IN PROGRESS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO HIGHER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CASCADES...MAY GET QUITE A
BIT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3000
AND 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT THIS INTERVAL...SO AREAS SUCH AS DIAMOND
LAKE...CRATER LAKE...MOUNT ASHLAND...MOUNT SHASTA...AND OTHER
AREAS OVER 5000 FEET MAY WIND UP WITH 4 TO 6 FEET OF SNOW BY THE
TIME IT ALL ENDS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE SURFACE FRONTS.
THE PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS...SO AMOUNTS BELOW 5000 FEET WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT
LIKELY WON'T REACH WARNING LEVELS. HOWEVER...PASSES SUCH AS
SISKIYOU SUMMIT ON I-5 WILL GET AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN GET ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFD...TUE 15 MARCH
THROUGH FRI 18 MARCH. THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
STILL BRINGING SOME LESSER FRONTAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY TO THE AREA,
WITH WEAKER STORMS RIDING IN ON WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW. AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA, RESULTING IN DRYING
CONDITIONS.
MORE SPECIFICALLY, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT
INCREASE WITH TIME IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE ARE HOW QUICKLY THE
STORM TRACK LIFTS NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND TO WHAT AMPLITUDE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OFFSHORE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. THE SHORT
STORY IS THAT THE ECMWF INDICATES THE TROUGHING LINGERING MORE
THROUGH MID-WEEK THAN DOES THE GFS. THE GFS THEN BUILDS MORE
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FASTER, THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WITH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. PER SUGGESTED GUIDANCE FROM THE
EXTENDED PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ISSUED TODAY BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER, I'VE LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. PER
LOCAL VERIFICATION IN THE LAST 30 DAYS, HOWEVER, I'VE LEANED A BIT
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS, ESPECIALLY WITH
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK.
BOILING IT DOWN, WE SHOULD EXPECT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, MODERATING WITH TIME. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RIDE THROUGH THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW YIELDING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MOSTLY TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN AND, TO A LESSER DEGREE THE WEST SIDE AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 3500 FEET
RISING TO 5500 FEET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BRING NORTHEAST AND
EAST WINDS THAT WILL BE GUSTY, AT TIMES, ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
THIS WILL YIELD DEVELOPING INVERSION CONDITIONS, MOST PRONOUNCED IN
THE MORNING HOURS. WITH MARCH SUN EXPECT THAT ALL VALLEYS WILL MIX
OUT EACH AFTERNOON. SO, WHILE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE, HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BTL
HYDROLOGY...MANY COUNTIES IN SW OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
ARE UNDER AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH. THIS FLOOD WATCH IS MAINLY FOR
URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS DUE TO FORECASTED MODERATE TO HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERNS ARE THE CHETCO RIVER AND
HUNTER CREEK IN SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY WHERE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY
COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS NEAR THE COAST. AS FAR AS MAIN
STEM RIVERS GOES...THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE IS FORECAST TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER THE TIMING COULD
CHANGE IF THE HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES SOONER. SEE PDXFFAMFR AND THE
DETAILED HAZARD ON OUR WEBPAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029>031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR ORZ029>031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021>024.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
ORZ021-022.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081-084-085.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR CAZ081-084-085.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CAZ080>083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ082.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ080.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM PST TO 1 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM PST TO 1 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
DW/JRS/BPNIn the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 12, 8:40 AM PST, 5 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE PISTOL RIVER 42.26N 124.39W
03/12/2016 M2.10 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR AMOUNT.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW WILDERVILLE 42.46N 123.49W
03/12/2016 M1.20 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
8 HOUR AMOUNT. OBSERVER LOCATION 17 MI WEST
OF TOWN.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SE SELMA 42.23N 123.52W
03/12/2016 M1.29 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR AMOUNT. OBSERVER LOCATION N FORK
THOMPSON CR RD ACROSS FROM BORICA.
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMLocal storm report, Mar 12, 1:16 PM PST, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
116 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0114 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE LANGLOIS 42.94N 124.45W
03/12/2016 M1.95 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
DURATION OF 12 HOURS. 3-4AM 0.89 OBSERVER
LOCATION 0.5 N OF LANGLOIS.
&&
CZSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2:59 AM PST | Special Marine Warning | MFR | 61 min | |
| Mar 12, 6:04 AM PST | High Surf Warning | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 37 hr |
| Mar 12, 7:22 AM PST | Gale Warning | MFR | 33 hr | |
| Mar 12, 7:22 AM PST | Storm Warning | MFR | 29 hr | |
| Mar 12, 2:01 PM PST | High Wind Warning | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Klamath, Lake | 32 hr |
| Mar 12, 2:57 PM PST | Gale Warning | MFR | 25 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in Oregon, 2016Wind Advisories in California, 2016Every wind advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.