Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Medford, OR

113 
WHUS76 KMFR 112311
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
311 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016


PZZ356-121215-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-160312T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0024.160312T0600Z-160312T1500Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0029.160312T1500Z-160313T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0017.160313T0900Z-160313T2000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.A.0007.160313T0900Z-160313T2000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
311 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM PST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST
SUNDAY...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* SEAS: STEEP 10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS...BECOMING VERY STEEP AND 
  WIND DRIVEN 14 TO 18 FEET SEAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY 
  SATURDAY MORNING. VERY STEEP...WEST 17 FT SEAS CONTINUE 
  SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG STORM WILL BRING VERY 
  HIGH...WIND DRIVEN SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SEAS 
  EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 24 FEET. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT WILL BRIEFLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND 
  BECOME WESTERLY. SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 45 
  TO 55 KT WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY 
  MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT LATE SATURDAY MORNING 
  THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 35 KT ARE 
  POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING TO STORM 
  FORCE 40 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT. 

* AREAS AFFECTED: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS...
  FOLLOWED BY GALES AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT 
  AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL 
  IMPACT ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. STORM 
  CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOST THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING... 
  EXCEPT FOR GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN 5 NM SOUTH OF BROOKINGS. 

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ALONG WITH VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A
VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY
EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT
THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL
VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN
PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALLER VESSELS AND INEXPERIENCED MARINERS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

PZZ370-376-121215-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-160312T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0024.160312T0600Z-160312T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0029.160312T1200Z-160313T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.A.0017.160313T0900Z-160313T2000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.A.0007.160313T0900Z-160313T2000Z/
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
311 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM PST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
PST SATURDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
PST SUNDAY... 
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* SEAS: STEEP 10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS...BECOMING VERY STEEP AND 
  WIND DRIVEN 14 TO 16 FEET SEAS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 
  VERY STEEP...WEST 15 TO 18 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND 
  SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG STORM WILL BRING VERY HIGH...WIND 
  DRIVEN SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO 
  BUILD UP TO 24 FEET. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 KT WILL BECOME WEST 15 KT LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 
  KT WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BECOMING 
  SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
  EVENING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE 
  SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING TO STORM FORCE 40 TO 55 KT WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 65 KT SUNDAY MORNING. 

* AREAS AFFECTED: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS...
  FOLLOWED BY GALES AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT. 
  VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND 
  SATURDAY EVENING. STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA 
  SUNDAY MORNING OVER MOST THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR GALE CONDITIONS 
  BEYOND 50 NM FROM CAPE ARAGO TO GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 25 NM 
  FORM SHORE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. 

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ALONG WITH VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A
VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY
EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT
THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL
VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN
PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALLER VESSELS AND INEXPERIENCED MARINERS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

PZZ350-121215-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-160312T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0024.160312T0600Z-160312T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0029.160312T1200Z-160313T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.A.0007.160313T0900Z-160313T2000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
311 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM PST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
PST SATURDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
PST SUNDAY... 
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* SEAS: STEEP 10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS...BECOMING VERY STEEP AND 
  WIND DRIVEN 14 TO 16 FEET SEAS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 
  VERY STEEP...WEST 15 TO 18 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND 
  SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG STORM WILL BRING VERY HIGH...WIND 
  DRIVEN SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO 
  BUILD UP TO 25 FEET. 

* WINDS: SOUTH 20 TO 25 KT WILL BECOME WEST 15 KT LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 
  KT WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BECOMING 
  SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
  EVENING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE 
  SATURDAY NIGHT... INCREASING TO STORM FORCE 45 TO 55 KT WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 65 KT SUNDAY MORNING. 

* AREAS AFFECTED: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS...
  FOLLOWED BY GALES AND VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT. 
  VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL IMPACT ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND 
  SATURDAY EVENING. STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA 
  SUNDAY MORNING. 

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ALONG WITH VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A
VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY
EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT
THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE
CONDITIONS.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL
VESSELS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN
PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD TO SMALLER VESSELS AND INEXPERIENCED MARINERS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
925 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF STORMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN AND
WIND TO OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COAST
TODAY, THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR A 2-3 DAY PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON RAINFALL AMOUNT AND WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR COOS, CURRY, JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THIS
FLOOD WATCH PERTAINS TO LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. OF A
PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE CHETCO RIVER AND HUNTER CREEK IN
SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY WHERE HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY COULD EXACERBATE
THE RIVER HEIGHT. THE LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST ALSO BRINGS THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AND WE HAVE
ISSUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MAIN STEM COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE.

LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE WE ISSUED THE
AREAL FLOOD WATCH. THEREFORE WE ARE KEEPING THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THOSE AREAS.

STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE
WARNING. ANOTHER STORM ON SUNDAY COULD PUSH THE WINDS TO HIGH
GALE.

WITH THE SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET, THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW THIS WEEKEND AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING CONTINUES. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. IN
NORTHERN CAL, MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND INLAND WESTSIDE TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH
FALLS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...LOW PRESSURE JUST
WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE SOME SOUTH WINDS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
AS OBSERVED SEAS ARE ALREADY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST SATURDAY,
THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND MOVING
INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS
IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE
WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY.
FOR NOW IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
UNTIL THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN'T ENOUGH, VERY
HIGH AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -BPN/PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN INITIALLY SHOWS A
WAVE NUMBER OF THREE AROUND THE GLOBE...WHICH IS USUALLY A
STAGNANT OR RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THERE IS REX
BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...IT WILL MORPH TO A FOUR
WAVE PATTERN LATER ON TODAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RESUMPTION
OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. IF THE 10/12Z AND 11/00Z EC
VERIFIES...THE THREE WAVE PATTERN WILL RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SIGNIFICANT BLOCK SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

CLOSER IN...IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SHORT WAVES EJECTED BY THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL BRING CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY DIRECTED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THAT'S WHERE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA NORTHWEST
THROUGH WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST AND
COAST RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
FACTOR...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY. WITH 700 MB FLOW
PEAKING AT ABOUT 45 KT...IT WILL BE BREEZY THERE WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE AT WEED.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE WILL BE DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
INITIAL TARGET WILL BE THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST...BUT WILL
SHIFT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS WAVE
WILL STILL BE AROUND WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE FROM CENTRAL OREGON DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A COLDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY THIS TIME FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE PERSISTENT AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG
THE COQUILLE RIVER FROM MYRTLE POINT TO THE OCEAN.

THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW EVENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO HIGHER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE CASCADES...MAY
GET QUITE A BIT OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET THROUGHOUT THIS INTERVAL...SO AREAS
SUCH AS DIAMOND LAKE...CRATER LAKE...MOUNT ASHLAND...MOUNT
SHASTA...AND OTHER AREAS OVER 5000 FEET MAY WIND UP WITH 4 TO 6
FEET OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT ALL ENDS.

WEAKER WAVES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS INTERVAL. MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY HIGHS...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES THE STORM TRACK BACK NORTH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS REACHING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.

AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION TODAY. HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS. IN
NORTHERN CAL, MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TONIGHT AT THE COAST AND INLAND WESTSIDE TERMINALS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS
FOR THE TAF PERIOD. -PETRUCELLI

MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PST FRI 11 MAR 2016...STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 38N/130W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO NORTHERN CAL. HOWEVER THE 6Z NAM SHOWS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING AROUND 4 AM PST THIS MORNING AND MOVING NORTH OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP ALSO HINTS AT THIS. IF
THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE, POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 4 AM PST
SATURDAY, THEN MOVING ONSHORE. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS ONE WILL WARRANT CLOSE WATCHING. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 135W SATURDAY EVENING, RAPIDLY
DEEPENING AND MOVING INSIDE OF 130 W EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON COAST LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS MAY BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS, BUT GALES ARE LIKELY. FOR NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES UNTIL
THE FIRST GALE WARNING EXPIRES. IF THAT WEREN'T ENOUGH, VERY HIGH
AND VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND HIGH SWELL COULD RESULT
IN DANGEROUS SEAS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER ENDS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR ORZ027-028.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ021>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ080>083.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM PST SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR CAZ080.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR CAZ083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM PST SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

FJB/FJB/MAP