Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
208 PM PST SUN FEB 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIP CONTINUES TO
TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH WEAK OFFSHORE DEVELOPING
BY THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE
REMAINING BEHIND THE PRECIP AM EXPECTING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH PATCHY FOG KEEPING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINES TO THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE ILLINOIS AND
APPLEGATE VALLEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH A WARM FRONT
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO MOSTLY THE WEST SIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
ON THE COAST AND THE EAST SIDE...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY STRENGTH
WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT MOVES IN ON THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 140KT JET WITH THE AR MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A HIGH
PROBABILITY AT 250 KG/M/S AND AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF 500
KG/M/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE HEAVY PRECIP ON THE COASTAL RANGES
THE DURATION WILL NOT BE LONG AND SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE PASS LEVELS. A WEAK RIDGE BUILD WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE DEVELOPING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM HITTING THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SVEN

DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE FOR THE THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FRONTS AND IT'S LIKELY THEY WILL CHANGE IN THE DAYS TO COME. THIS
LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IT
WILL BE ACTIVE. RIGHT NOW, THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF FRONTS IS
PROJECTED TO REACH THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY. WE'LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING, THEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THE MODELS (IN PARTICULAR THE
EC) CONTINUE TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THE EVIDENCE IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS
SHOWING YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOW, BUT LOW
ENOUGH FOR IT TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN TO THE HIGHER PASSES
IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MANY
AREAS WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WEST OR
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST SUN 28 FEB 2016... HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WET AND WINDY FRONTS MOVING
ONSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ031.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN