Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A MODERATE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WEST
SIDE VALLEY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES.
COASTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 1 INCH...WHILE EAST
SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECORD BETWEEN
0.1 AND 0.25 INCHES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CLOUDS MOST PLACES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THE EXTENDED
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER RIVER VALLEYS FROM ABOUT GRANTS
PASS AND ROSEBURG WESTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS
LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED BY HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS DURING
THE MORNING. IFR CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST UNTIL
AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING MODERATE
RAIN, NEAR TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS, AND A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
AS IT HEADS INLAND ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
OVERNIGHT. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 255 AM PST FRI 26 FEB 2016... SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL ALSO BUILD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 14 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY EVENING...A
WINDIER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH GALES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS
INCREASINGLY MORE ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH TIME NEXT WEEK AS
THE JET STREAM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS MEANS PERIODS OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY
APPROXIMATELY EVERY 3 DAYS. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM PST FRI FEB 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF IS
LINED UP AROUND 130W AND HAS SLOWED A BIT AS SOME WEAK LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL START TO ACCELERATE
TO THE EAST AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE OUT NEAR 135W
FORCES IT ALONG. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
RAIN ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND NOON, SPREADING INLAND TO THE
CASCADES BY EARLY EVENING, THEN EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT.

THIS FRONT HAS A DECENT MOISTURE TAP, BUT IT IS FAIRLY WEAK IN
TERMS OF WIND. THIS MEANS WE WON'T HAVE AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS
USUAL TO DEAL WITH IN MEDFORD, SO RAIN OUGHT TO HAVE AN EASIER
TIME THAN USUAL GETTING INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS STILL SHOW
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN AT THE COAST AND AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OVER INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
WILL SEE BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE USUALLY WINDIER AREAS, BUT AS
MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM ISN'T VERY WINDY, SO WE DON'T SEE THE NEED
FOR ANY HEADLINES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH FOR MUCH OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AT CRATER LAKE TOWARD THE TAIL
END OF THE EVENT. THUS, NO SNOW HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY, EITHER.

RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, AND MUCH OF SATURDAY SHOULD
BE DRY. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE BETWEEN
150W AND 160W, AND IT WILL BRING RAIN AND A LITTLE MORE WIND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY WINDY, BUT WINDS
WILL BE APPROACHING GALES OVER THE WATERS, AND WE MAY NEED SOME
HEADLINES OVER INLAND SECTIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT STILL ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASS LEVELS.

THE PARADE OF STORMS LIKELY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SHOWS THE STORMS GETTING
INCREASINGLY STRONG OVER TIME. THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS FOR REFERENCE. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY
TO AROUND 7000 FEET WITH THE WARM FRONT, AND WILL ONLY DROP TO
AROUND 5000 FEET WITH THE COMING COLD FRONT, THUS RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE USUAL AREAS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY,
AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL,
BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY, BUT AGAIN, WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS ESPECIALLY POTENT, AND SHOULD THE MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE, WILL LIKELY BE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND AND RAIN PRODUCER.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN RATHER HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, BUT
MAY DROP TO 4000 FEET OR BELOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY,
WHICH WOULD REACH THE LEVEL OF SEVERAL PASSES IN THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME RANGE. THIS HAS THEREFORE LED TO ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS, BUT THERE
REMAINS A LOT LEFT UNSEEN IN THE DETAILS OF EACH SYSTEM. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ370.

NSK/TRW/BTL