Small Craft Advisory 121, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
321 PM PST Fri Nov 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers remain over southern Oregon and
northern California mainly west of the Cascades. The showers are
light and are not expected to be anything but light through
sunset. The next well defined but not very large short wave is
crossing 130 W longitude at this time. The low center is moving
eastward pretty much along 40 N latitude. The GFS seems to have a
good handle on it and brings the precipitation associated with it
onshore sometime around midnight tonight. Precipitation will be
concentrated along the southern Oregon coast...southwest Josephine
County and western Siskiyou County overnight. As this system moves
through...snow levels will drop from around 5500 feet to 4500 feet
by morning.

Attention...the Flood Warning for the Coquille River at Coquille
has been cancelled, but the product remains on the NWS web because
of technical difficulties. We are not expecting any river flooding
through the rest of the weekend.

Following this system...the trof axis will move inland putting
the area under northwest flow and colder air will continue to
infiltrate the area. A system will track into the area from this
northwest flow Saturday late afternoon through Sunday morning.
Snow levels will continue to fall and bottom out to between 2500
and 3000 feet by Sunday morning. This will affect travel over all
higher passes in the Cascades. Siskiyou Summit on I-5 should also
see snow but how much is still in question. Lower summits on I-5
such as Sexton should remain wet with just rain but could see some
snow mixed in with the rain.

Active northwest flow continues through Monday. So scattered to
numerous showers should continue with snow levels fluctuating
between 3000 and 4000 feet.

A well-defined cold front will move through Wednesday. Snow
levels will drop to around 3000 feet late Wednesday, so there
could be travel impacts to Interstate 5 and the Cascades passes.
Upper ridging builds late Thursday into the weekend. Valley fog
will likely increase given the recent wet weather and plenty of
low level moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF cycle...Generally VFR conditions exist this
afternoon as one frontal boundary pushes inland and another front
develops offshore and moves toward the coast. Given the southerly
flow, the lowest conditions will continue to be around the Mount
Shasta area and  on the south side of other high terrain. Winds
aloft are increasing from the south today, and where these winds are
not surfacing, low level wind shear (LLWS) is possible.

As the front moves closer to the coast tonight, south winds should
increase further, and this will generate increased chances for
turbulence, especially to the north of high terrain.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR Saturday from west to east as the front
moves inland, mountain obscuration will increase, and freezing
levels will lower.

Note: The ceilometer at FAA site KOTH remains out of service, so
there will be no ceiling observations available generally between
the hours of 04Z and 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Friday 25 November 2016...Southerly
winds will increase again and expand in coverage across the waters
this afternoon into tonight with gales mainly beyond 10NM from shore
as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Seas will become wind
wave dominated and very high this evening while building to a new
peak.

There will be modest improvement behind the low on Saturday.
Westerly winds will approach advisory strength while seas will
remain high and very steep due to west swell. Seas are likely to
remain high through the middle of the week as the active pattern
continues. -DW/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday for
     ORZ029-030.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for ORZ030-031.
     High Wind Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Saturday
     morning for ORZ030-031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4500
     FEET for for ORZ028.
     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ORZ022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday ABOVE
     4000 FEET for for ORZ027-028.

CA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for CAZ085.
     High Wind Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Saturday
     morning for CAZ085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday ABOVE
     4000 FEET for for CAZ080-082.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for for CAZ082.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4500
     FEET for for CAZ080-083.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ081.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Saturday for
     CAZ083.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
     to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

KRS/KRS/NSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1117 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
11/25/2016  M1.07 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            11 HOURS.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1237 PM PST FRI NOV 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW LAKESIDE          43.59N 124.18W
11/25/2016  M3.35 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NOON TO NOON. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN
            EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

SBN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
122 PM PST FRI NOV 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW BROOKINGS         42.12N 124.34W
11/25/2016  M1.90 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
            24 HOURS.

&&

CZS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
226 PM PST FRI NOV 25 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREEN                   43.15N 123.38W
11/25/2016  M3.52 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1300-1300. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN
            EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.

&&

SBN