Alert archive / Oregon / High Surf Warnings in 2016
High Surf Warning 6, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this high surf warning at Oct 11, 2016, 6:12 PM PDT for Coos County, Curry County, Douglas County, Oregon. It took effect at Oct 13, 2016, 12:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 56 hr. 46 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 11, 2016, 6:12 PM PDT (01:12 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 13, 2016, 12:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Oct 15, 2016, 8:09 PM PDT
- In force
- 56 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 12:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.75 | 1 Nnw Lakeside, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 4:07 PM PDT | HIGH SUST WINDS 35 | 1 S Gold Beach, OR | GOLD BEACH HISTORICAL SOCIETY LOST A WINDOW DUE TO WIND, ALSO HAD ROOFING MATERIAL FROM ACROSS THE STREET BLOWING ONTO THEIR BUILDING. |
| Oct 13, 5:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.95 | 4 Nnw Brookings, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 7:28 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 4.73 | 2 Ese Langlois, OR | MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UNTIL 7 PM PDT. . |
| Oct 13, 7:31 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.55 | 3 Ne Bandon, OR | BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM PDT. . |
| Oct 13, 8:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.91 | 7 Ese Coos Bay, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 8:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.91 | 7 Ese Coos Bay, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 13, 8:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 2.07 | 3 Sse Coos Bay, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 8:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 2.07 | 3 Sse Coos Bay, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 12 HOURS. |
| Oct 13, 8:45 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.82 | Brookings, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 8:45 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.82 | Brookings, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 12 HOURS. |
| Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 6.44 | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 9:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 6.44 | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 21 HOURS. |
| Oct 13, 9:26 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.15 | 2 Sse Coos Bay, OR | MIDNIGHT THROUGH 2100 PDT. |
| Oct 13, 10:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.51 | 4 Wsw Reedsport, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 13, 10:27 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 6.55 | 1 Wnw Harbor, OR | RAIN STARTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WAS LAST MEASURED AT 2225 PDT THURSDAY. |
| Oct 13, 11:52 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 2.83 | Glendale, OR | . |
| Oct 13, 11:52 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 2.83 | Glendale, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Nne Langlois, OR | TREES DOWN NEAR HOUSE. OCCURRED SLIGHTLY BEFORE WIND WARNING ENDED. . |
| Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 2.51 | 1 Nne Langlois, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 12 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.69 | 1 Nne Langlois, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 6.84 | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | 0.4 INCHES WITHIN THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 5:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3 | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 5:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 5.07 | Gold Beach, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 7:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.06 | 3 Ne Bandon, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 16 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 7:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 4.49 | Brookings, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. THE REPORTED OBSERVER LOCATION WAS .5 MILES DUE NORTH OF DOWNTOWN. |
| Oct 14, 7:30 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.95 | 5 Nne North Bend, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 8:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 5.6 | 2 Nw Brookings, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. THE REPORTED OBSERVER LOCATION WAS 1 MILE SOUTH OF RAINBOW ROCK VIEW. |
| Oct 14, 8:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 7.73 | 1 Nnw Harbor, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. THE REPORTED OBSERVER LOCATION WAS 4 MI N OF CA BORDER ON EASTSIDE HWY 101. |
| Oct 14, 8:30 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 4.75 | 2 Sse Pistol River, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 9:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 6.2 | 6 E Gold Beach, OR | ELEVATION 3000 FEET. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 9:49 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.67 | 5 E Winchester, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Oct 14, 12:08 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.91 | Port Orford, OR | 24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT NOON PDT. |
| Oct 14, 3:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 3.2 | 1 Ene Coquille, OR | . |
| Oct 15, 7:00 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.42 | Brookings, OR | . |
| Oct 15, 10:28 AM PDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 70 | 2 Sse Pistol River, OR | SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH. NO DAMAGE TO TREES YET. |
| Oct 15, 12:00 PM PDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 67 | 1 Se Brookings, OR | PEAK WIND GUST BEFORE POWER WENT OUT. POWER WENT OUT FOR 45 MINUTES, BUT HAS COME BACK ON. . |
| Oct 15, 12:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.51 | 1 Nnw Lakeside, OR | 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT NOON. . |
| Oct 15, 12:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.54 | Port Orford, OR | . |
| Oct 15, 12:30 PM PDT | TSTM WND DMG | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | 3 OAK TREES FELL ON PROPERTY DUE TO WIND GUST. OAK TREES WERE 8-10 IN DIAMETER, BUT WERE NOT EXTREMELY HEALTHY. NO DAMAGE TO ANY BUILDINGS. |
| Oct 15, 12:30 PM PDT | TSTM WND DMG | Harbor, OR | NEWSPAPER REPORTS AN 80 FOOT PINE TREE FALLING ON TOP OF A MANUFACTURED HOUSE. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED AS PERSON WAS NOT IN THE ROOM. THEY ALSO REPORT POWER LINES BEING DOWN IN THE AREA. |
| Oct 15, 12:31 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1 | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | READING TAKEN AT 12:30. RAIN IS STILL FALLING. . |
| Oct 15, 1:00 PM PDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 N Brookings, OR | PUBLIC REPORTS THAT A TRANSFORMER BLEW NEAR THE CROSS STREET OF TAYLOR CREEK RD. AND CARPENTERVILLE RD. IN BROOKINGS. . |
| Oct 15, 3:00 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.63 | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT. . |
| Oct 15, 3:11 PM PDT | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 5 Nnw Brookings, OR | POWER OUTAGES OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. LOTS OF TREE LIMBS AND DEBRIS ON GROUND, BUT NO TREES DOWN ON PROPERTY. . |
| Oct 15, 8:03 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 2.75 | 7 Ese Coos Bay, OR | . THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 48 HOURS. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2238 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
240 WHUS46 KMFR 120112 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 612 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016 ORZ021-022-121200- /O.NEW.KMFR.SU.W.0006.161013T1800Z-161014T0600Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 612 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY. * WAVES AND SURF...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREAKERS WILL BE 20 TO 25 FEET LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING IN THE SURF ZONE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST. * TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD...MAINLY FROM OPHIR TO CAPE ARAGO. * IMPACTS...HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. WAVE RUN-UP ON BEACHES WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL. ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE TO THE SEA. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$
10 follow-up statements
383 WHUS46 KMFR 121740 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1040 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...HIGH SURF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND SEAS AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STRONGER STORM ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF AS WELL AS A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET. ORZ021-022-130300- /O.NEW.KMFR.SU.Y.0021.161013T1900Z-161014T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.SU.Y.0022.161014T1200Z-161015T0000Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SU.W.0006.161014T0000Z-161014T1200Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 1040 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 5 PM THURSDAY TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY... ...HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM PDT THURSDAY THROUGH 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. * WAVES AND SURF...SOUTH THROUGH WEST BREAKERS WILL BE 22 TO 27 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST, INCLUDING THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS, ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKING WAVES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL ALSO BUILDS. SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL PEAK THURSDAY EVENING, WHILE THE WEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL CAUSE THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL OF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WARNING LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST...INCLUDING THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN, AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES, ROCKS, AND JETTIES AT TIMES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION. && $$ BTL
963 WHUS46 KMFR 130236 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 736 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...HIGH SURF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND SEAS AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STRONGER STORM ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF AS WELL AS A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET. ORZ021-022-131200- /O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0006.161014T0000Z-161014T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SU.Y.0021.161013T1900Z-161014T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.SU.Y.0022.161014T1200Z-161015T0000Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 736 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2016 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY... ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...SOUTH THROUGH WEST BREAKERS WILL BE 22 TO 27 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST... INCLUDING THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS...ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKING WAVES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL ALSO BUILDS. SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL PEAK THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE WEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL CAUSE THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL OF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WARNING LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST... INCLUDING THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN... AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES... ROCKS... AND JETTIES AT TIMES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION. && $$
922 WHUS46 KMFR 131552 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 852 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...HIGH SURF THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A SERIES OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND SEAS AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STRONGER STORM ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF ALONG WITH A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET. ORZ021-022-140100- /O.CAN.KMFR.SU.Y.0021.161013T1900Z-161014T0000Z/ /O.CAN.KMFR.SU.Y.0022.161014T1200Z-161015T0000Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.SU.W.0006.161013T1900Z-161015T0000Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 852 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM PDT FRIDAY... HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH SURF WARNINGS FOR THE ALL OF THE COOS AND CURRY COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. * WAVES AND SURF...SOUTH THROUGH WEST BREAKERS WILL BE 22 TO 27 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST... INCLUDING THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS...ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKING WAVES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY AS LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL ALSO BUILDS. SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL PEAK THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE WEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL CAUSE THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE MOST IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST... INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN... AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES... ROCKS... AND JETTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$ BTL
288
WHUS46 KMFR 132253
CFWMFR
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016
...HIGH SURF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
RESULT IN HIGH SURF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND SEAS
AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WARNING
LEVEL SEAS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STRONGER STORM
ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF ALONG WITH
A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET.
ORZ021-022-141200-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
353 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016
...HIGH SURF WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY...
* WAVES AND SURF...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
20 TO 28 FOOT BREAKERS.
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKERS.
* TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL BUILD THURSDAY AS LONG PERIOD
WEST SWELL ALSO BUILDS. SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL PEAK THURSDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE WEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. SEAS LOWER
SOME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL INCREASE
SHARPLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEST SWELL LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR.
* FLOODING POTENTIAL: THE STRONG STORM ON SATURDAY COULD BRING 2
FEET OF STORM SURGE TO LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COASTAL
FLOODING.
* IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO
THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON
THE OCEAN...AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL
SURGE ONTO BEACHES...ROCKS...AND JETTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES
WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.
&&
$$548 WHUS46 KMFR 132259 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 359 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...HIGH SURF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... A SERIES OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND SEAS AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STRONGER STORM ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF ALONG WITH A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET. ORZ021-022-141300- /O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 359 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY... * WAVES AND SURF... THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON: 20 TO 28 FOOT BREAKERS. SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKERS. * TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL BUILD THURSDAY AS LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL ALSO BUILDS. SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL PEAK THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE WEST SWELL WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. WAVES LOWER SOME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOUTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL INCREASE SHARPLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEST SWELL LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR. * TIDES: HIGH TIDES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AROUND MIDDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WAVE RUN UP. * FLOODING POTENTIAL: THE STRONG STORM ON SATURDAY COULD BRING 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE TO LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN...AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES...ROCKS...AND JETTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$
874 WHUS46 KMFR 141132 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 432 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2016 ...HIGH SURF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... A SERIES OF VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGH SURF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND SEAS AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STRONGER STORM ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF ALONG WITH A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET. ORZ021-022-142300- /O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 432 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING: 20 TO 22 FOOT BREAKERS. SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKERS. * TIMING...WEST SWELL WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND WAVES WILL LOWER SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEST SWELL LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR. * TIDES: HIGH TIDES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY AROUND MIDDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WAVE RUN UP. * FLOODING POTENTIAL: THE STRONG STORM ON SATURDAY COULD BRING 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE TO LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN...AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES...ROCKS...AND JETTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$ FB
550 WHUS46 KMFR 141931 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1231 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2016 ...HIGH SURF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... A VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STORM FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH SURF FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS AND BUILDING WESTERLY SWELL HAVE COMBINED TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. THE STRONG STORM ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER SURF ALONG WITH A STORM SURGE OF UP TO TWO FEET. ORZ021-022-151215- /O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 1231 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING: 20 TO 25 FOOT BREAKERS. SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKERS. * TIMING...WEST SWELL PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND WAVES WILL LOWER SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEST SWELL LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR. * TIDES: HIGH TIDES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WAVE RUN UP. * FLOODING POTENTIAL: THE STRONG STORM ON SATURDAY COULD BRING 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE TO LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN...AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES...ROCKS...AND JETTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$
088 WHUS46 KMFR 151043 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 343 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ...HIGH SURF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... A VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE VERY LARGE WIND WAVES THAT WILL COMBINE WITH WESTERLY SWELL TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO TWO FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. ORZ021-022-151845- /O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 343 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING: 20 TO 25 FOOT BREAKERS. FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT: 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKERS. * TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE SHARPLY THIS MORNING REACHING A PEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE WEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR. * TIDES: HIGH TIDES AROUND MIDDAY TODAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WAVE RUN UP. * FLOODING POTENTIAL: THE STORM COULD BRING 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE TO LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN...AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES...ROCKS...AND JETTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$
277 WHUS46 KMFR 151750 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1050 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ...HIGH SURF THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... A VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE VERY LARGE WIND WAVES THAT WILL COMBINE WITH WESTERLY SWELL TO RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SEAS IN THE PORT ORFORD AND BROOKINGS AREAS. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO TWO FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. ORZ021-022-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 1050 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING: 20 TO 25 FOOT BREAKERS. FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT: 25 TO 30 FOOT BREAKERS. * TIMING...SOUTH WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE SHARPLY THIS MORNING REACHING A PEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE WEST SWELL WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCLUDING PORT ORFORD AND THE BROOKINGS AREA NEAR HARBOR. * TIDES: HIGH TIDES AROUND MIDDAY TODAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WAVE RUN UP. * FLOODING POTENTIAL: THE STORM COULD BRING 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE TO LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. * IMPACTS... HIGH BREAKERS WILL BRING VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE...JETTIES AND BEACHES. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN...AS SNEAKER WAVES WITH LONG WAVE RUN-UP HEIGHTS WILL SURGE ONTO BEACHES...ROCKS...AND JETTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. && $$
820 WHUS46 KMFR 160309 CFWMFR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 809 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ORZ021-022-160415- /O.CAN.KMFR.SU.W.0006.000000T0000Z-161016T1800Z/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- 809 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016 ...HIGH SURF WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF WARNING. SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH...BUT THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS HAVE COME TO AN END. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high surf warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf warning went out at Oct 11, 4:00 PM PDT, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 4:00 PM PDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
400 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...
Winds... Wind headlines have been updated for the upcoming storm
system Thursday into Friday. Please see our web page and/or the
bottom of this page for further details. Specifically, strong winds
will begin to affect the area late Thursday morning, peaking at the
coast late Thursday afternoon and evening. High wind warnings have
been issued for the coast south of Bandon, as well as for the Shasta
Valley, and portions of the East Side. Advisory level winds are also
expected for much of the East Side and the Rogue Valley.
Regarding forecast confidence in warning level winds, confidence
is highest along and near the coast, with gusts over 60 mph
expected. In the Shasta Valley the rain spilling over from the
Mount Shasta upslope zone may cause frictional drag on the winds,
which could limit winds to below the 58 mph gust warning
threshold. However, more likely than not, these winds will occur
at some point during the warning period at Weed Airport or
Montague. For the wind advisories across the East Side and the
Rogue Valley confidence in advisory level winds is moderate to
high on the east side and low to moderate in the Rogue Valley. In
short, the strength of the south winds coming over the Siskiyous
could keep winds from reaching advisory criteria in the Rogue
Valley. Currently, there appears to be a 3 to 6 hour window
late Thursday afternoon to early evening where wind gusts of 45 to
55 mph are possible on from about the center of the valley
northeastward. For all areas, given that this is the first
significant wind event of the season and leave are still on the
trees in many areas, the potential for downed tree limbs and power
line is increased.
After a relative lull Friday, winds are expected to ramp back up
for another round of wind on par or possibly greater than the
first storms system for Saturday through Sunday as remnants of a
Western Pacific Ocean typhoon get ingested into the storm track
into the Pacific Northwest.
A third, but likely weaker, but still fairly strong, frontal
system is expected Monday into Tuesday. BTL
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday morning...We have no
significant changes to the expected big pattern shift toward very
active, windy, wet weather beginning Thursday, continuing through
the weekend and lasting into early next week. Confidence in this
pattern change is very high. The main forecast challenges will be
how much rain will occur and the potential for flooding, as well as
how strong winds will be. Several strong fronts will move onshore
from the Pacific during this time frame, each of which will bring
strong, gusty winds and very heavy rainfall. Rain amounts during
this stretch will likely be more than we would typically see during
the entire month of October! Expected total precipitation (QPF) from
Thursday morning to sunrise Monday morning is 10-15 inches in the
Brookings area and the Curry Coastal Mountains, 5-10 inches in other
portions of the coastal counties, 3-6 inches in much of Douglas
County and the Cascades and Siskiyous, 5-7 inches in the Mount
Shasta area, 2-3 inches in the usually drier Bear Creek portion of
the Rogue Valley and Central and Northern Shasta Valley, and 1-3
inches on the East Side. If we get the expected 5-day precipitation
total we currently have in the forecast for the Medford Airport, it
would be the wettest 5-day period in the month of October in Medford
since 1962.
Since we are coming out of the dry season, many area rivers, creeks
and strems are running very low and therefore, can absorb a lot of
this moisture. However, with it coming in such a short period of
time, we expect some shorter term hydrological concerns, with the
possibility of flooding/slides on or near recent burn scars and in
areas where drains clog from fall debris. Right now, it's a good
idea to prepare for the incoming rainfall by cleaning gutters and
storms drains to lessen the risk of them backing up.
We'll also have some very strong winds with these storms. Thursday
through Friday morning high winds will be possible along the coast,
in the Shasta Valley and over the mountains, as well as in the
Summer Lake area. Advisory level winds are possible in portions of
the Rogue Valley from parts of Ashland to Medford during that time
period, as well. Please see the high wind product (NPWMFR), which
outlines the details concering this first high wind event.
Additional windy periods are anticipated from successive storm
systems, primarily Saturday and possibly again early next week, so
stay tuned for updates regarding those.
Snow levels look to be above 8kft for the bulk of this precipitation
event, but could dip to near 7kft in heavier bursts of precipitation
and on the tail end of individual frontal systems through Saturday
night. Sunday through Monday snow levels are expected to lower to
near 6kft. Anyone planning to venture onto the Cascade Peaks should
very much take this into consideration, as white-out conditions and
high winds at or above hurricane force above treeline, will occur,
at times.
Beyond that, model guidance is indicating that we'll get a break
around the middle of next week as a ridge aloft builds in. This may
present the opportunity for frost/freeze concerns on the west side
at some point. Spilde/BTL
&&
.AVIATION...11/18Z TAF CYCLE...Expect mostly VFR conditions
during the day with skies scattering and light winds under high
pressure at all TAF sites. Early Wednesday morning, expect coastal
fog and low stratus supported by moist southerly winds and high
pressure aloft. In the Umpqua Basin, expect IFR to LIFR
conditions...whether due to low stratus or to fog is uncertain and
depends on the amount of surface mixing. Elsewhere...expect VFR and
light winds through the TAF period. -MSC
Note: The ceilometer at FAA site KOTH is out of service, so there
will be no ceiling observations available generally between the
hours of 04Z and 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday, October 11, 2016...
Weak high pressure builds remains over the area tonight, then slides
east tomorrow as the first in a series of fronts approaches. This
will result in continued relatively light winds and seas through
tomorrow.
Confidence is high a series of storms will move through the water's
Thursday through next weekend. Winds will become south and increase
as the first front approaches Wednesday. The models show low
pressure developing along the front Wednesday night, then rapidly
deepen as it moves from the southwest to northeast Thursday
afternoon. There are still differences among the models regarding
the track and strength of the low, but either way, at least gale
force winds will occur over much of our waters Thursday afternoon
and evening. There is also concern that the low could deepen enough
to produce storm force winds in a strong coastal jet just prior to
frontal passage Thursday evening. Confidence on this is not quite
high enough to upgrade the watch to a warning, so we'll keep the
gale and storm watches going. In addition the wind, seas will be
extremely dangerous with at least 20 to 25 foot wind waves expected,
and some guidance suggests seas over 30 feet.
There may be a relative break in winds and seas Friday, but they
will still be at least small craft advisory level over much of the
area. Then an even stronger low may move by to our north and produce
even stronger winds and higher seas Saturday. While this storm could
be worse than the first, in order to avoid confusion, we'll continue
to cover it with a marine weather statement as opposed to additional
watches. If current trends continue, expect further watches to be
issued for the Saturday storm. -Wright/Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for
ORZ029>031.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 2 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ029>031.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for
ORZ021-022.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ085.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 2 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ084-085.
High Wind Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...
- Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
for PZZ356-376.
- Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
BTL/MAS/DW/PetrucelliThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 5:53 PM PDT | Gale Warning | MFR | 53 hr | |
| Oct 11, 5:53 PM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 41 hr | |
| Oct 11, 5:53 PM PDT | Storm Warning | MFR | 53 hr | |
| Oct 12, 2:24 AM PDT | High Wind Watch | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and 1 more | 51 hr |
| Oct 12, 2:42 AM PDT | Storm Watch | MFR | 37 hr | |
| Oct 12, 10:40 AM PDT | High Surf Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 22 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:40 AM PDT | High Surf Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 22 hr |
| Oct 12, 3:03 PM PDT | Flood Watch | MFR | Curry | 38 hr |
Nearby
High Surf Warnings in Oregon, 2016Every high surf warning in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.