Hazardous Seas Warning 60, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
235 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will remain in place
through the remainder of the week. As the thermal trough builds
along the coast and then shifts inland, temperatures are expected
to warm through the week, reaching a peak on Thursday of about 10
degrees above seasonal normals before gradually cooling through
the weekend. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will keep the area dry, with
no mentionable chances of precipitation anywhere within the
forecast area. In other words, quiet but warm weather is expected
through this week and into the weekend. Fire weather conditions
will remain the primary concern and the focus of efforts through
the rest of the week.

A significant change may appear early next week. Models are
showing an upper level trough sliding south into the region from
Canada and/or Alaska, but are doing so in varying ways. Some
solutions depict cooling with a chance of rain and wind, such as
the latest GFS, while others show cooler temperatures but no
precipitation, such as the latest ECMWF. Much of the uncertainty
regarding this potential system stems from a very strong low over
the Aleutians, and a somewhat blocky pattern upstream, either or
both of which are resulting in varying model solutions.

The overall trend has been towards a cooler forecast, closer to
or even slightly below average for late August. Although
confidence remains low with so many variable and uncertainties
upstream, have trended the forecast for early next week to near
or even slightly below normal temperatures, and have introduced a
slight chance of rain, mainly west of the Cascades. However, the
forecast could easily change over the next several cycles, so stay
tuned for updates. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z TAF cycle...A lingering area of IFR ceilings and
fog that is confined to the immediate coast from Gold Beach
southward is expected to erode overnight. Another area of IFR is
likely to develop over the coastal waters after 18Z Tuesday but
remain away from shore until Tuesday evening. Inland...skies will be
mostly clear. -DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT, Tuesday 23 August 2016...High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will continue
gusty northerly winds and steep seas from Cape Blanco to Point St.
George through Wednesday. Seas will remain wind dominated through
Thursday then forecast uncertainty increases...but winds and seas
should ease a bit Friday into the weekend. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

BPN/DW/FB