Hazardous Seas Warning 22, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
828 PM PST MON FEB 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN MEAGER...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES FROM THE ROGUE VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER TO THE EAST
SIDE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN
INCH FROM THE COAST TO WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY UP ALONG THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE TO THE CASCADES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140. THESE AREAS
STAND THE BEST SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT, BUT
EVEN THERE IT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTH END OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. WIND HEADLINES ARE OUT AND CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR.
SINCE SNOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY HIGH...ABOVE 6500 FEET...WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WINTER IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT...ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CASCADES.

JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. BUT THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY FALL APART EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE WE ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER KOTH AND KRBG
AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED EARLY TUESDAY
AS LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
AT THE SAME TIME...MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.
STOCKTON

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PST MON 29 FEB 2016...A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD GALES
TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WET
AND WINDY FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. SEAS COULD EXCEED
20 FEET ON FRIDAY...AND THE STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
BE ON OR ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND. STOCKTON/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM PST MON FEB 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING, AND OVERALL QPF
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW TOMORROW.

WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THE
FRONT...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED
THOSE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INLAND AS THE INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE
THERE.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UPWARD... AND
THE MFR-RDD GRADIENT IS SHOWING ABOUT 7 MB WITH THE OTH-ACV
GRADIENT SHOWING ABOUT 9 MB. THESE INDICATE THAT A BORDERLINE
COASTAL JET WITH STRONG WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COAST AS
WELL AS FOR THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS...BUT THE 925 MB WINDS,
AS OPPOSED TO THE 850 WINDS, ARE EXTREMELY STRONG AND ALIGN WELL
WITH THE VALLEYS. THEREFORE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
NORMAL WINDIER SPOTS AND HAVE ISSUED ACCOMPANYING HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES.

THIS IS JUST THE FIRST SYSTEM IN A SERIES OF MANY, WHICH INDICATE
A WETTER, MORE EL NINO LIKE TREND FOR MARCH. THE SERIES OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION AND WINDS IN BETWEEN. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH IN THE SHORT TERM, SO IMPACTS TO PASSES WILL BE
MINIMAL. -SCHAAF

LONG TERM...DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH. EC AND GFS (WHILE DIFFERENT WITH WHERE THE CORE OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE) SHOW WHAT COULD BE A ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
PATTERN SETTING UP FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT THE
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CAL. SNOW
LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOW, BUT LOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO
ACCUMULATE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
THEY WILL COME DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT'S A
GOOD BET SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO THE MAJOR PASSES,
INCLUDING HIGHWAY 140 AND I-5 NEAR SISKIYOU SUMMIT. KEEP IN MIND,
IT'S STILL A WAYS OUT AND DETAILS COULD CHANGE. THE MAIN TAKE AWAY
FROM IS IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND, BE PREPARED FOR
WINTRY TRAVEL AND STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION....FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER KOTH
AND KRBG AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED
EARLY TUESDAY AS LOWER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AT THE
COAST AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP AT THE SAME TIME...MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN.

MARINE...UPDATED 210 PM PST MON 29 FEB 2016...A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GALES TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WET
AND WINDY FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. SEAS COULD EXCEED
20 FEET ON FRIDAY...AND THE STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
BE ON OR ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ029.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ084.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ081-082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

MAS/BMS/MAP/JRS