Gale Watch 32, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
850 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...The short wave that brought thunderstorms to eastern
Lake and Modoc Counties last night has moved eastward, and we're no
in an area of stable westerly flow. Thus, have updated the forecast
to take out chances of showers and thunderstorms for today. Also
updated sky cover for this morning in the Umpua basin, as marine
clouds are seeping in from the coast...expect most inland cloud
cover to lift by early afternoon due to surface heating, and
expect clear skies over most areas south and east of the Umpqua
divide. Expect afternoon highs to be several degrees below
Saturday's highs...or within a few degrees of normal... given the
cooler west flow. See previous discussion for information on
extended forecast. -MSC

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z TAF cycle...Along the coast and over
extreme Northwest Douglas County, MVFR ceilings will continue
through the morning, lifting to VFR by early this afternoon, then
returning late this evening and tonight. Elsewhere VFR conditions
will continue into tonight. However, areas of MVFR cigs are expected
to spread into the Umpqua Valley overnight. -CC

&&

.MARINE...Updated 810 AM PDT, Sunday 7 Aug 2016...
Lighter winds and calmer seas will continue today into Monday, but
the thermal trough pattern will redevelop Monday evening, producing
another round of gusty north winds and steep seas through at least
mid week. Winds and seas are expected to reach small craft levels
for areas south of Gold Beach late Monday then will expand northward
to Cape Blanco on Tuesday. Small craft conditions may expand north
of Cape Blanco on Wednesday. -CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...A few lightning strikes were moving north along the
east slopes of the Warners and crossed into Oregon around Doherty
hang-gliding slides in the southeast part of Lake County. Another
round of lightning strikes will continue to move into Modoc County
overnight but thunderstorms are expected to be out of our forecast
area by morning as the short wave trough moves east.

The low pressure will move into NW Washington today with westerly
flow into Oregon and northern California. This onshore flow will
keep high temperatures down around 5 degrees lower than seasonal
norms for early August.

Normal high temperatures for August 7th:
Roseburg: 86
Medford: 92
Klamath Falls: 85
Alturas: 89
Montague: 92
Mount Shasta: 87
North Bend: 65

This pattern continues into Monday as with the low to the north
over Washington. With moist onshore flow, expect a marine push
of low clouds into the coast and the Umpqua Valley tonight and
Monday morning. Also expect a slight chance for showers along the
coast Monday, mainly from Cape Blanco north. Expect another
stronger marine push into Southwest Oregon on Tuesday as the low
pressure moves further inland. Also models indicate a chance of
light showers along the coast and into the Umpqua Valley and up to
the Southern Oregon Cascade foothills.

We will remain under the influence of a broad upper level trough
through Tuesday with temperatures remaining 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Temperatures will rebound to seasonal norms on Wednesday
as a ridge expands offshore. Some guidance shows Medford could
warm back into the 95-100 range in the second half of next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

MSC/CC/FJB