Gale Watch 26, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
830 PM PDT THU JUN 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...The cold front is moving into the coastal waters
this evening with light rain reported at North Bend airport. This
front is expected to weaken into a trough as it moves inland. The
main effect for inland areas is increased onshore flow with light
showers and marine push inland. While the surface front is
expected to wash out west of the Cascades, the upper level part of
the front is expected to hold together as it moves east and models
have been consistent at generating bands of showers across Klamath
and Lake and northern Modoc Counties Friday. Depending on how much
clearing occurs, Friday night's low temperatures east of the
Cascades could drop into the lower to middle 30s with a good potential
for frost. A cool and unstable air mass will be over our forecast
area into the weekend. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...For the 10/00Z TAF cycle...No major changes to the
TAFs this cycle. A weak front is currently moving through the
area resulting in widespread MVFR/VFR cigs and breezy W to NW winds
at KMFR and KLMT. Expect winds to diminish tonight after sunset.

For the coast...IFR cigs and visibility can be expected along the
coast south of Gold Beach the rest of today and tonight with spotty
drizzle. North of there along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin,
expect a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs with isolated to scattered showers
over the next 24 hours. Partial terrain obscuration may occur late
tonight or Friday morning. The remainder of the area should have
mostly VFR cigs with just isolated showers. BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thu 9 June 2016...A weak front will
move through the waters this evening bringing a slight increase in
winds and seas and also a chance of rain, mainly north of Gold
Beach. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms north of Cape
Blanco Friday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels through Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon, brief ridging and a short lived thermal trough pattern
will set up. This could result in small craft north winds and seas,
mainly south of Port Orford, through Monday morning.
Afterwards, winds will diminish and a light to moderate northwest
swell will move into the waters. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM PDT THU JUN 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A frontal system moving onto the west side this afternoon is
increasing cloudiness and looks impressive on the infrared
satellite imagery, but a look at the visible satellite imagery and
radar indicate it's currently somewhat disorganized. Nonetheless,
there is a good possibility of showers developing this afternoon
through this evening. Measurable rainfall in the form of showers
is expected for portions of the west side, especially the higher
terrain of the Cascades and in Douglas and Coos Counties. There is
also a slight possibility of showers building up on and northeast
of Mount Shasta.

Temperatures on Friday will be about 10 degrees below normal for
highs as a fairly cold upper level trough moves through. there
will a slight potential of thunderstorms over portions of Lake,
Douglas, and Coos County and the northern Coastal Waters Friday
afternoon and evening. Lows Friday night through Saturday morning
will likely result in the need for a Frost Advisory for portions
of the east side, to include Klamath Falls.

Temperatures have been increased and precipitation probabilities
lowered for this weekend as the troughing lifts out. For next
week we've leaned more toward the ECMWF model with precipitation
probabilities increasing again and temperatures cooling to back
below normal again. Details are a bit unclear, but showery and
cool weather is expected as a broad low pressure trough moves in.
BTL

AVIATION...For the 09/18Z TAF cycle...

Coast...IFR cigs and visibility can be expected along the coast
south of Gold Beach the rest of today and tonight with spotty
drizzle. North of there along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin,
expect a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs with isolated to scattered showers
over the next 24 hours. Partial terrain obscuration may occur late
tonight or Friday morning. The remainder of the area should have
mostly VFR with just isolated showers. Breezy W to NW winds around
15 kt will affect Medford (KMFR) and Klamath Falls (KLMT) terminals
this afternoon and evening. Spilde

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thu 9 June 2016...A weak front will
move through the waters this afternoon and evening bringing a slight
increase in winds and seas and also a chance of rain, mainly north
of Gold Beach. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms north of
Cape Blanco Friday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to remain
below small craft advisory levels through Saturday morning. By
Saturday afternoon, brief ridging and a short lived thermal trough
pattern will set up. This could result in small craft north winds
and seas, mainly south of Port Orford, through Monday morning.
Afterwards, winds will diminish and a light to moderate northwest
swell will move into the waters. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

FJB/MAS/MND