Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
412 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system over NE Gulf of Mexico and Florida
Panhandle will gradually move west along the southern U.S. Gulf
coast throughout the remainder of the week as a strengthening
high pressure over the western Atlantic builds west into Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR-TERM (rest of this afternoon into this evening): slightly slower
start to convection across South Florida this afternoon as earlier
mid-level clouds delayed heating, however showers and thunderstorms
increasing in coverage over the interior of the peninsula to Lake
Okeechobee, with a few storms along the East Coast sea breeze as
well. This activity will become more numerous over the eastern
half of the peninsula as general storm motion towards the NE keeps
Gulf Coast areas relatively dry.

As the low pressure over the NE Gulf shifts west, its effects on South
Florida will lessen. Therefore, expectation is that this afternoon's
convection won't linger too deep into the evening compared to the
past few nights.

SHORT-TERM (Tonight/Wednesday): this will be a transition period
as the high pressure over the western Atlantic starts to builds
in, with flow shifting from S/SW to SE. This will translate to a
few night and morning showers/thunderstorms along the East Coast
and more numerous afternoon showers/thunderstorms shifting more
over the western sections of the interior as opposed to the
eastern half of the area as has been observed the past several
days. Not much change in stability means a few strong storms
possible but no widespread severe storms expected. Temperatures
will be slightly warmer Wednesday due to more early/midday
sunshine, back to near normal August values.

Wednesday night through Friday: deep easterly flow sets in across South
Florida as the high pressure area is fully established by this time.
Moisture remains high with precipitable values near or over 2 inches.
Models depict area of higher moisture currently over the Bahamas
across South Florida on Thursday, leading to numerous afternoon/evening
showers and storms over the interior/west and scattered mainly
night and AM showers/thunderstorms east coast. Once again, a few
strong afternoon storms with gusty winds are expected in areas of
highest coverage over the interior and west. Warmer nighttime
lows along the East Coast metro areas as east flow keeps these
areas warmer, with seasonal high temps in the lower 90s most areas,
except near 90 east coast and mid 90s interior).

LONG-TERM (This Weekend into beginning of next week): high
pressure continues to dominate. Models are fairly consistent in
moving a patch of drier air across the area on Saturday, leading
to the lowest POPs of the forecast period (20% SE to 50% NW),
followed by a gradual upward trend in POPs to near climatological
values for Sunday and early next week. Little change in temperatures.

The rip current risk will be somewhat elevated along the Atlantic
beaches, especially Friday through the weekend as east/southeast
surface winds increase slightly.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds become east/southeast by Wednesday and continues through the
weekend as western Atlantic high pressure settles in. Speeds will
gradually increase, reaching near 15 knots at times over the
southern waters and generally 10-13 knots elsewhere. Seas will be
mostly 2 feet or less, then building to 3 feet this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  91  80  91 /  30  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  81  89 /  20  30  20  40
Miami            79  91  80  91 /  20  40  20  40
Naples           77  92  77  92 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

59/Molleda

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
100845-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MAIN CONCERNS WITH ACTIVITY WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY INTERIOR AND
EASTERN SECTIONS.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

FLOODING: SOME FLOODING OF URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, MAINLY
INTERIOR AND EAST.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TO INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER
CONCERNS INCLUDE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

MOLLEDA