Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
159 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection continues this afternoon with the majority of activity
inland of the terminals. Potential TS impacts possible at any
terminal, though the best chances appear to be at PBI and APF. A
direct impact could bring a terminal to IFR very briefly. After
sunset, convection should diminish for the overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1151 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016/

UPDATE...
Convection is kicking off around Lake Okeechobee and the Gulf sea
breeze around Naples this morning. As the collision of the sea
breezes and outflow boundaries occurs from north around the Lake
to the south towards Florida Bay, convection will increase in
coverage and intensity. The largest threats from thunderstorms
today appears to be lightning and gusty winds, but ponding of
poorly draining roads and low-lying areas due to heavy rain is
also possible. The forecast is on track with minimal changes made,
mainly with the wording of the updated zones.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A trough currently over south Florida will gradually move westward
towards the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture content continues to be very
rich over the area early in this morning with precipitable water
values in the 00Z KMFL sounding of 2.0 inches. This will continue
to provide isolated showers early this morning along the east
coast metro area. More scattered thunderstorms are possible with
the sea breeze this afternoon especially over the interior and
Gulf waters. Drier air over the Bahamas will travel west to
northwest and make its way into the east coast metro areas as the
day progresses. Forecast PWAT values continue to show a lowering
trend ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 inches today into Friday limiting
thunderstorm development along the east coast metro areas and
Atlantic waters late this afternoon and Friday.

The Saharan dust dissipates into the weekend as more tropical
moisture travels within the periphery of the high. This strong
ridge will shift south into the weekend as a weak cold front moves
into the Tennessee Valley and Northern Florida. This will keep
southerly flow over S FL through the weekend with an increase in
moisture over the area. This will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop in the interior each afternoon this
weekend.

Early next week models continue to show low pressure developing
over northeast Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile high pressure over the
western Atlantic will strengthen and lift northward drifting this
low pressure into the Florida panhandle by mid week. If this
trend continues, this strong high pressure will limit the
potential for showers and storms and bring above normal
temperatures over the area into next week.

MARINE...
Light to moderate southeast wind will continue today shifting more
southerly into the weekend. The wind speeds will be around 15 knots
or less. This will keep seas around 3 feet or less in the Atlantic
and Gulf waters. The threat of rip currents will continue to lower
along the east coast beaches of South Florida late this weekend
as the winds become more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  91  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
Miami            80  90  79  91 /  10  20  20  30
Naples           76  90  77  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...02/RAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1238 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050445-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1238 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
THE LAKE REGION, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE MAIN THREAT IS LIGHTNING.

WIND: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MILES PER HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

FLOODING: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINING AND
URBANIZED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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