Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
814 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Moisture surge in the Atlantic is accompanied by scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms, and this activity is spreading
westward/inland this evening. Have raised POPs accordingly through
the evening. Adjusted dewpoint temperatures upward across the
region to reflect current conditions, and also adjusted
temperatures downward in the west to reflect the rain-cooled air.
With the showers approaching the Atlantic coast, this may allow
east coast climate sites to fall below their morning lows this
evening, record high minima may not be set.

&&

.AVIATION...
VCTS conds will continue through 02/0100Z for a majority of the
east coast TAF sites, with the activity slowly dissipating as it
moves inland. A surge of moisture advecting over the region
tonight, will continue VCSH. A stray lightning strike can not be
ruled out. After 02/1600Z, VCTS conds appear favorable again for
the east coast TAF sites, with activity shifting westward with
time, affecting KAPF by 02/1800Z. Light southeast winds tonight will
once again become gusty by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Western Atlantic high pressure ridge will continue to be the main
driver of South Florida weather through the week. Tropical
moisture will likely bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to
the region Tuesday, with weather returned to typical of summer for
the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Significant dry air aloft, some SAL, resides over South Florida
this afternoon, and has suppressed much convective development.
Aside from the Naples region, where a Gulf Breeze has induced
scattered/numerous thunderstorms, shower activity is isolated and
will likely remain so through sunset. Hi-res models then suggest
initial surge of moisture, associated with weak disturbance and
the outermost influence/inverted trough of the strong tropical
disturbance wave approaching Jamaica, approaching later this
evening. This could bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms overnight to eastern areas of South Florida.

For Tuesday, conditions are favorable to bring the wettest day of
the week to South Florida. PWAT surge above 2 inches with plenty
of warm unstable air to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Two factors not favoring widespread convection are at least modest
SAL over the region and the potential that significant cloud-cover
may exist. Because of this, there's fair amount of uncertainty in
the Tuesday forecast.

Convection should diurnally diminish, but not totally end, Tuesday
night. Drier air will gradually advect into the region Wednesday,
so rain chances will turn more toward climatological normals and
be focused over western and interior portions of the state.

Temperatures, like today, will remain slightly above normal,
especially for maxima, through mid-week. Low temperatures so far
today are on pace to set daily records at Miami, Fort Lauderdale,
and West Palm Beach.

East wind averaging 15 mph will bring moderate risk for rip
currents to Atlantic beaches Tuesday, possibly continuing into
Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Fluxes of SAL will generally suppress widespread convection
through the period, as high pressure will remain centered
northeast of the region. The persistent southeast and east winds
experienced over the past week or so, focusing convection toward
the west coast, will gradually diminish and turn more south and
southwesterly over the weekend as the high pressure weakens and a
low pressure trough deepens across the northeastern United States.
This may allow thunderstorms to focus more toward the east coast
over the weekend, but still be scattered and diurnal in nature.
Temperatures into the weekend will remain above normal. Maxima
should average low 90s and minima should be in the 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION...
Generally VFR flying conditions will prevail at the TAF sites
through 18z Tuesday, outside some periods of brief MVFR ceilings
at the east coast TAF sites early this afternoon. Have kept VCSH
at the east coast TAF sites through 00z-02z, but confidence was
not high enough to include VCTS or TEMPO groups at this time and
will amend as necessary. Have kept VCTS at KAPF through 01z,
although a TEMPO group may need to be added later this afternoon
once thunderstorm placement becomes more apparent. A ceiling in
the 4-6 kft range may impact the TAF sites overnight ahead of an
area of increasing moisture associated with a tropical wave
passing by to the south.

Easterly winds will continue at 10-15 knots with occasional gusts
of 20-25 knots at the east coast TAF sites, decreasing to around
10 knots overnight and through the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds will be around 10 knots out of the east/southeast at KAPF
through the TAF period.

MARINE...
Small craft operators should exercise caution across Atlantic
waters off Miami-Dade and Broward counties into Wednesday as winds
will gust above 20 knots at times. Overall wind will relax
Thursday through the weekend, with direction changing from
easterly to southerly by Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms could
occur at any time, bringing the risk of dangerous lightning and
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  92  80  90 /  30  50  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  82  90  80  89 /  40  50  30  30
Miami            80  91  79  91 /  40  50  30  30
Naples           78  93  76  92 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...27/JT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
021230-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
830 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WIND: A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OVER 34KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENT RISK COULD INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDAS ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1138 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

FLZ072-074-172-173-020400-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
1138 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

* AT 1138 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR HOLLYWOOD...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE
  WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
  UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
  STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FORT LAUDERDALE...HOLLYWOOD...DAVIE...SURFSIDE...HALLANDALE...
  MIAMI GARDENS...NORTH MIAMI...NORTH MIAMI BEACH...OAKLAND PARK...
  AVENTURA...LAUDERDALE LAKES...DANIA BEACH...SUNNY ISLES BEACH...
  WEST PARK...WILTON MANORS...LAZY LAKE...RAVENSWOOD ESTATES...
  MELROSE PARK...WASHINGTON PARK AND GOLDEN HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH...VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

&&

LAT...LON 2613 7998 2589 7997 2588 8022 2618 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 093DEG 24KT 2602 8008

SI