Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
341 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (through Sunday)...surface analysis and observation
data show a frontal boundary slowly migrating south and into the
northern portions of the CWA. Meanwhile, 12Z MFL sounding data
depicts an unstable atmosphere, with a general thermodynamic
profile still favorable for localized strong microbursts. Lower
freezing levels may also allow for a few cells to produce small
hail this afternoon and into the early evening hours.

SPC has placed a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across
much of the eastern half of South Florida, favoring the northern
half of the CWA areas and around Lake Okeechobee. However, since
daytime heating has not been interrupted by afternoon convection
yet, there is plenty of boundary layer instability, and a general
thermodynamic profile to support thunderstorm activity through the
evening hours. Low level moisture is a little less than previous
days, probably due to the influence of a layer of Saharan Air
moving across the region. But overall moisture content should be
enough to support showers and thunderstorms.

Primary threats from thunderstorms will continue to be frequent
lightning, gusty winds of of 40 mph or stronger, locally heavy
rain, and possible small hail.

Model guidance show a ridge axis stretching south of the region,
and helping in keeping a generally southwest flow across South
Florida through Sunday. The overall synoptic scenario will keep
hampering the formation and westward progress of the east coast
sea breeze this afternoon and again on Sunday, and will keep
convection focused over the interior and the Atlantic metro
areas. Rip current risk will be moderate for Gulf coast beaches
and low for Atlantic beaches.

Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s, and afternoon
max temps on Sunday will be around 90 for most areas. Also,
expect another round of heat index values climbing into the low
100s Sunday afternoon.

Long Term (Monday through Friday)...the risk for rip currents
will increase to at least moderate over the Atlantic beaches by
early Monday, and probably reaching the high level by late Monday
and Tuesday, as northeasterly winds increase coupled with the
arrival of a northerly swell. This is due to the development of a
surface low tracking up the eastern seaboard.

By mid week, the Bermuda High ridge axis will drift northward and
shift winds across the area to the southeast and south. This wind
regime should allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase,
especially Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered thunderstorms are still possible through this evening,
especially over Lake Okeechobee and the Atlantic waters. Later
tonight, showers and thunderstorms may continue over the Atlantic
and Gulf waters. Winds will become north to northeasterly Sunday
behind a frontal passage at 10 to 15 knots, with 15 to 20 knots
possible for the Atlantic waters in the Gulf Stream. With these
winds, wave heights will build up to 5 to 9 feet, and occasionally
higher, and will likely require Small Craft Advisories by Sunday
afternoon and continuing into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Challenging forecast for terminals. Firstly, Atlantic sea breeze
is showing some signs of forming, so have placed TEMPO SSE winds
for MIA and FLL. Wind shift could reach other east coast
terminals, otherwise generally westerly winds at 10 to 15 knots
will prevail. Thunderstorm development has also been suppressed
thus far. Still expect scattered activity, likely along the sea
breeze, late this afternoon, with the potential for additional
activity moving in from the north during the early evening. Thus,
VCTS is in TAFs from 19-23z. Both start and end time may need to
be adjusted later. Light wind overnight, then NNE wind Sunday as
cold front moves in. Chances of showers and thunderstorms by late
morning Sunday, accounted for with VCSH attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  76  88  76  86 /  50  50  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  77  88  77  86 /  40  60  30  30
Miami            78  89  76  86 /  40  60  30  40
Naples           77  92  73  90 /  10  50  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Discussion...17/AR
Aviation...23/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
190745-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AREAS...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

TORNADOES: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

WIND: ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45
TO 55 MPH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
CANT BE RULED OUT.

HAIL: STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON GULF
BEACHES.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED,
MAINLY OVER THE EVERGLADES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, ARE LIKELY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY ON ATLANTIC BEACHES LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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