Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Radar data is now showing thunderstorms marching across the
western half of South Florida, and will spread into Broward and
Palm Beach counties through the rest of the morning hours. Miami-
Dade will likely begin to experience active thunderstorm periods
in the early afternoon hours. The overall westerly-southwesterly
flow will keep pushing convection over the Gulf coast towards the
Atlantic coast today. This will increase chances for downpours and
some minor localized flooding over some of the South Florida metro
areas. Gusty winds to 50 mph or even higher are possible with the
strongest cells. There is also a moderate risk of rip currents
over the Gulf beaches today and through the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 749 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR conditions, or even brief IFR are possible later
today across most of the Atlantic terminals as showers and
thunderstorms develop along coastline locations. Also, thunderstorms
forming over the Gulf coast will move eastward and reach the
vicinity of the Atlantic terminals at times. TEMPO groups have
been added for most terminals for potential thunderstorms between
15z and 19z today, but will likely be adjusted as timing becomes
more clearer regarding convective initiation and overall rain
coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Synoptic models in pretty good agreement that a 500mb cutoff low
will dig south, off the east coast of the United States. The
models show it sitting off the Carolina coast by Sunday
afternoon. Ahead of it, a surface low will form off the north
Florida/ Georgia coast this weekend. This sfc low will rotate
around the upper low through the weekend, and end up aligning with
it by Monday. At that point, a stronger 500mb trough digs south
over the great lakes Region, effectively picking up the cutoff,
and quickly moves it to the northeast on Tuesday.

The lows will bring several waves of instability to South
Florida, helping to enhance the afternoon showers and storms
across the area for the next several days.

For today, models are hinting that it may be an early start to
todays convective activity, in conjunction with some 500mb vort
advection across the area. There is already some convective
activity across the middle of the area, crossing from Naples into
Broward County. There may be a lull from around dawn to mid
morning, when a stronger area of vort advection moves into the
lake region. This will serve as early support for showers and
storms across the northern portion of the CWA. The flow will be
westerly today, so, convection should develop towards the Gulf
coast, and move across the interior, to the Atlantic coastal
areas. The concern with this is any Atlantic sea breeze that tries
to form, may cause some of the storms to either back-build, train,
or even just stall over the Atlantic metro areas today. This would
bring a slight risk of some urban flooding. Also, if that
interaction does develop, there may be a slight chance of some
water spouts, although they may occur with any showers or storms
across the South Florida coastal waters today.

This same type of pattern will continue on Sunday and Monday,
keeping some likely PoPs in the interior Saturday and Sunday. The
low should start pulling away on Monday, slightly reducing the
chances of showers and storms. As it pulls away, models are
hinting the low may develop some sort of frontal system, that may
push the convective activity to vicinity of the CWA for Tuesday
and Wednesday. This will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday. By the end of the
week, another 500mb trough dig southward, across the eastern US.
This will once again enhance the chances for convective activity
for the end of next week.

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the TAF period ending 06z Saturday, with the exception
being any possible MVFR conditions associated with afternoon
thunderstorms. Have gone with VCTS at the east coast TAF sites
beginning 14z and at 11z at KAPF where shower and thunderstorm
activity may get going earlier there. Highest confidence in
possible MVFR flying conditions is at KPBI, KFXE, and KFLL where
PROB30 groups were indicated from 16z-19z. Winds will be out of
the west/southwest at 5-10 knots overnight, increasing to 10-15
knots during the daytime hours.

MARINE...
The weather will be similar as the last several days, with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly moving
offshore from the Atlantic coastal area, although some activity
over the Gulf is possible as well. There is a slight chance of
waterspouts with and showers or thunderstorms today across the
South Florida coastal waters. By the beginning of the week, the
wind will turn northeasterly, causing the Atlantic seas to build,
possibly bringing hazardous conditions to those waters for small
craft for the first half of next week. This would also cause the
risk of rip currents to be elevated by the beginning of next week
for the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  91  77  93  75 /  50  20  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  91  78  92  77 /  50  10  60  30
Miami            91  77  93  78 /  50  10  30  20
Naples           86  78  90  78 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....17/AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
180230-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT GULF BEACHES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A LOW RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

WIND: WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREA.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT GULF BEACHES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES: APPARENT TEMPERATURES, OR HEAT INDEX, WILL BE AROUND
100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PENINSULA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT GULF BEACHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS, ARE EXPECTED TO START DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE
7-10FT RANGE AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND HAIL
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>