Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1023 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

.UPDATE...
The morning surface analysis showed a weak confluence zone
stretching from northern Collier to southern Palm Beach County.
Water vapor imagery suggests this surface confluence zone is
coincident with both a deep plume of moisture and an upper trough,
so these factors have combined to allow numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms to develop this morning. The 12Z Miami sounding
indicates a reservoir of moist and unstable air is in place south
of these features with little to no inhibition, so additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across the area as
diurnal heating peaks this afternoon. Gusty winds, heavy
downpours, and frequent lightning will be the primary threats from
the strongest storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 802 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016/

AVIATION...
Early morning radar imagery shows a few showers in the vicinity
of APF, but otherwise quiet. Southwest winds will prevail today,
strong enough to mostly keep the Atlantic sea breeze from moving
very far inland, though it may briefly make it near the terminals
closest to the east coast such as FLL. 12Z Miami sounding
indicates a moist and unstable air mass remains in place, so
scattered thunderstorms are again expected to develop after 16Z.
VFR prevailing though a brief period of MVFR or IFR will be
possible with any showers or thunderstorms moving near the
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A tropical wave is approaching the Yucatan peninsula with a plume
of deep tropical moisture across the region to the northeast of
the wave axis. The pwat from the 00Z sounding was just over two
inches and the mid-level temperatures dropped several degrees from
the Wednesday 12z sounding with the stability indices in the 00Z
sounding indicating an increase in general instability.

Forecast for today through Saturday...Over the next several days
the local atmosphere will generally have deep moisture lingering
and southwesterly to westerly flow through most of the
atmosphere. Forecast soundings for Thursday through Saturday
indicate pwat's could continue to range from about 1.8 to around 2
inches and mid-level temperatures will continue to be a degree or
two colder than seasonal norms. Forecast soundings also indicate
general instability will continue through this period. All these
factors are consistent with the latest guidance indicating a mid
to upper level trough deepening into the northeast Gulf tonight
and surface lows developing across the Carolinas and adjacent
coast today and Friday. By Saturday the global models suggest an
elongated surface low could form off the southeast coastline with
the aforementioned upper level trough deepening across the
eastern CONUS and into the central Gulf Friday and Saturday. All
these synoptic changes will maintain deep moisture across the
region...generally southwesterly to westerly surface flow and
general instability with regional convection expected today
through Saturday. Over the peninsula afternoon/evening
shower/thunderstorm coverage is expected to be greatest across the
eastern half and the Atlantic metro areas today...scattered
activity on Saturday and on Sunday wider coverage across the
eastern peninsula and Lake region. Chances of convection and
periods of showers/thunderstorms are also forecast across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters through this period.

Rip current potential today into the weekend...With southwesterly
to westerly surface winds forecast today through Saturday the
potential for rip currents across the Atlantic coast beaches will
remain slight. Chances for rip currents across the Gulf beaches
will increase from slight to moderate by late Friday into Saturday
with an increase in the westerly winds later on Friday and a
modest increase in the Gulf seas through that period.

Forecast for Sunday into early next week...There is broad
agreement in the global models that a frontal boundary could
enter north Florida later on Saturday then might approach the Lake
region and become stationary by Sunday. In addition a transition
to easterly winds is forecast late Sunday into Monday. This
scenario would maintain boundary moisture across the region Sunday
into early next week with continuing diurnally driven
showers/thunderstorms. Will have to wait and see how this scenario
develops with additional guidance.

MARINE...

Southwesterly winds currently prevail across the regional waters
and are forecast to transition to westerly tonight into Friday
while slowly increasing to the 10 to 15 knot range with 15 to 20
knots possible across the Atlantic and Gulf stream waters.
Westerly winds are forecast into at least Saturday with
occasional periods from 15 to 20 knots possible across the Gulf
and Atlantic waters. Seas will slowly increase tonight into the
early weekend with Gulf seas 2 to 3 feet possible and Atlantic and
Gulf Stream waters 2 to 4 feet possible.

The extended marine guidance suggests that a long period northerly
swell could impact the Atlantic waters late this weekend but
there is too much uncertainty in the extended forecast to
determine any possible impacts. But the extended forecast does
indicate hazardous seas might be possible across the Atlantic
waters east of Palm Beach county late Sunday into Monday but will
have to see how this scenario plays out in future guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  93  77  92  77 /  60  40  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  92  77  92  77 /  60  40  30  20
Miami            92  77  92  77 /  60  30  30  20
Naples           88  78  87  79 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22/KS
LONG TERM....59/RM

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