Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
351 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Drier conditions Wednesday before more unsettled weather late
this week into this weekend...

.SHORT TERM...
A trough of low pressure over the eastern United States will move
east through Wednesday allowing for a mid to upper level low to
form just east of South Florida. This will allow for drier air to
the north to work into South Florida for tonight into Wednesday
night. Therefore, the scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are occurring over South Florida this afternoon
should dissipate through this evening hours. There could still be
a few showers over the southern areas late tonight into Wednesday
due to the closeness of the upper level low.

The short range models are showing weak surface low pressure
developing near or just east of The Bahamas late this week and
move the low to the north/northwest towards the southeastern
United States this weekend. At this same time, models are showing
the mid to upper level low to move back into the Florida
Peninsula. This weather pattern will allow for tropical moisture
to work back into South Florida from the south leading to
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day late this
week into this weekend. The best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior areas where the sea
breezes collided.

The NHC is also giving this weak low a 30 percent chance of
developing into a subtropical or tropical system in the next 5
days. At this time, it is too early to tell if there will be
additional impacts to South Florida.

.LONG TERM...
The long range models are showing that the tropical moisture will
remain over South Florida early next week, as the upper level low
weakens over South Florida. Therefore, the POPS will remain the
scattered to numerous range over the area during this time.

&&

.MARINE...
The winds will be northeast to east direction tonight through
Wednesday night, and the wind speeds will be increasing from 10
to 15 knots this evening to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into
Wednesday night. The wind speeds will then decrease to 10 to 15
knots late this week from the east. This will keep the seas at 5
feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters through late
this week, except for Wednesday where it could get up to 6 feet in
the Gulf Stream.

The breezy northeast/east winds will also allow for the threat of
rip currents to increase along the east coast beaches tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  75  86  75 /  50  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  86  77 /  60  20  10  10
Miami            87  76  87  76 /  60  30  20  10
Naples           91  70  90  69 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99/SS
LONG TERM....54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
250145-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND, AND HAIL. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55
MILES PER HOUR, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS IN URBAN
AREAS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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