Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
447 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INCLUDE A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED 500 HPA TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE COLDER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREAS WILL BE THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHEASTERN
PENINSULA...BUT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OTHER AREAS COULD BE
AFFECTED AS WELL. THE MAIN EXPECTED THREATS WILL BE WINDS TO NEAR
OR UP TO 60 MPH AND MODERATE TO LARGE SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
LAYERED MOISTURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
OVER NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. THAT COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST BUT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ACTIVE CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING SOUTHWARD WITH LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY AND FINALLY DRIVE THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA SAGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
STREAM SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SMALL LONG
PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL ENTERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF STREAM WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SWELL SLOWLY
INCREASES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEEKEND. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES HAZARDOUS SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION THE LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AT SOME POINT WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY COASTAL ZONE.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CONSISTENT THE GUIDANCE REMAINS WITH THIS
FORECAST SWELL EVENT BUT BUOYS OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST ARE ALREADY INDICATING THE SWELL IS UNDERWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  83  69  79 /  50  60  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  84  70  79 /  40  60  50  30
MIAMI            71  86  70  80 /  30  60  50  30
NAPLES           69  86  67  84 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
161045-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
637 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WIND:  SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

HAIL:  THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE.

FLOODING: WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS THERE
IS A CHANCE OF URBAN TYPE FLOODING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE: STRONG WIND,
LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL.

THE WIND AND SWELLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             1 SW OCEAN RIDGE        26.51N  80.06W
04/15/2016  E0.88 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT WOOLBRIGHT ROAD AND
            SEACREST BLVD

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1600260

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             5 W DELRAY BEACH        26.47N  80.16W
04/15/2016  E1.25 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT HALF DOLLAR SIZE
            HAIL IN WEST DELRAY BEACH AT 625PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1600261

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
643 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

FLZ066>068-070>075-168-172-173-152345-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-
METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-HENDRY FL-COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
643 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UP TO 55 MPH AND UP TO NICKEL
SIZED HAIL FOR BROWARD...SOUTHERN PALM BEACH...EAST CENTRAL
COLLIER...MIAMI-DADE...SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

* AT 643 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF LION
  COUNTRY SAFARI PARK TO NEAR LANTANA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 95
  MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY
  WINDS OF UP TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
  BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER
  IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIAMI...HIALEAH...FORT LAUDERDALE...PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...
  MIRAMAR...CORAL SPRINGS...POMPANO BEACH...DAVIE...MIAMI BEACH...
  PLANTATION...SUNRISE...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH...BOYNTON BEACH...
  DELRAY BEACH...HOMESTEAD...TAMARAC...WELLINGTON AND MARGATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN...SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2583 8004 2564 8008 2560 8013 2553 8009
      2548 8011 2546 8084 2651 8096 2664 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 204DEG 80KT 2669 8046 2661 7999

ALM