Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

.AVIATION...

INITIALLY WAS RE-CONSIDERING VCTS FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BUT
THERE IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...DELAYED ON-SET OF
THE VCTS UNTIL 20Z BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE. FOR TERMINAL KAPF VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 19Z WITH ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.
WITH OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAF'S WILL AMEND AS/IF NEEDED. THERE COULD BE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING REGION EASTERN GULF WITH PROB 30 TS FROM
06-09Z FOR TERMINAL KAPF.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 121 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016/

UPDATE...
AN UPDATE TO FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON INTERIOR SECTIONS PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WHERE WEAK CONFLUENCE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS... MAINLAND MONROE AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED YET ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...SO NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYNOPTIC REASONING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016/

AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST REGIONAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. STRATOCUMULUS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
EMBEDDED SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL CEILINGS IN THE 3-6KFT CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAT COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAF'S...WILL AMEND IF/AS NECESSARY. BY 18Z ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AS REGIONAL INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016/

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALOFT, A BROADER TROUGH WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO AS A MORE
ACTIVE SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAMS ACROSS THE GULF.

TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB DECREASE FROM AROUND -9C ON LAST NIGHT'S
SOUNDING TO -10C THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVEN MORE NOTABLY, -11C TO -
12C FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT STATISTICALLY COLDER THAN NORMAL, WHEN COUPLED WITH
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY TO 6.0-6.5 C/KM TODAY
AND SUNDAY, AND 7C/KM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY VEERED MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING,
ADVECTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED TO OUR SOUTH BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PUSH PWATS TO 1.5-2" FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AROUND
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY WILL AIDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES AND THE PROXIMITY OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL FL. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR FRIDAY, AND AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, MAKING IT SEEM SUMMER LIKE AT
TIMES.

THE RETURN OF THIS WET AND WARMER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IS A GOOD TIME TO REMEMBER THAT WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! WITH
MANY SOUTH FLORIDA AREA SCHOOLS IN THEIR SPRING BREAK AT THE MOMENT,
REPEATING THIS MESSAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE
SUMMER COULD HELP SAVE A LIFE!

NEXT WEEK... STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TN/OH
VALLEY WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LIFTING
IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW THEN TAKES OFF UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY, BRINGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, NEITHER LONG
RANGE MODEL BRINGS THE BOUNDARY COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
ALWAYS, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT. BUT, NEXT WEEK
LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND WET WEATHER.

MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AS RIDGE RETREATS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY,
INCREASING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS SUN AND MON.
SEAS 1-3FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  86  71  85 /  50  60  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  86  73  86 /  50  50  10  30
MIAMI            75  85  72  85 /  50  50  10  30
NAPLES           71  84  70  87 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

FLZ070-071-073-241900-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY-
210 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BROWARD...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER AND NORTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...

AT 209 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DADE-COLLIER
TRAINING AIRPORT...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONROE STATION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DADE-COLLIER TRAINING AIRPORT AND BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

LAT...LON 2584 8093 2590 8102 2618 8091 2601 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 213DEG 13KT 2594 8091

MJH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

FLZ063-066-070-241930-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY-GLADES-HENDRY-
250 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER...SOUTH
CENTRAL GLADES AND NORTHERN HENDRY COUNTIES...

AT 250 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEVILS GARDEN...
OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTURA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEWISTON...MOORE HAVEN...MONTURA...FELDA...DEVILS GARDEN...ORTONA...PORT
LA BELLE...HARLEM...LAKE HICPOCHEE AND KERI.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

LAT...LON 2645 8110 2653 8144 2691 8133 2679 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 204DEG 27KT 2659 8121

MJH