Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH 8 AM EST...
...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING, AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE.

SQUALL LINE INTENSIFIED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST FL COAST AS TWO SEPARATE LINES.
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE TIME OF NIGHT, THE BRISK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED IN A DECENT WARM AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS HAS LED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
REGION, UNDERSCORED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN POPPING UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH THIS INSTABILITY IN PLACE, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING
AND OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 150 S2/M2 AND GREATER
ACROSS THE REGION, MAXIMIZED WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 300-400.
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WIND
FIELDS VEER AND BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL, BUT UNTIL THEN, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL.

WINDS KEEP THEIR SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH THE FRONT COMING LATE
ENOUGH IN THE DAY, SO DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP IT WILL BE WARM
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80. DRY WEATHER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S OVER THE INTERIOR AND UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTS.

REST OF THE WEEK...DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST MID WEEK. THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL TROUGHS AND FRONTS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S DURING THE DAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY WITH FLOW VEERING
WEST- SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4FT
OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC.

WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20KTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  56  76  56 /  50  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  62  78  59 /  50   0   0   0
MIAMI            82  64  79  59 /  50   0   0   0
NAPLES           77  57  73  52 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
506 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
161800-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
506 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS ALONG THIS LINE, ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS
MORNING.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

WIND: A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. RIP
CURRENTS WILL AGAIN BECOME A THREAT ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES LATE
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLZ063-160915-
GLADES FL-
336 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN APPROACHING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR SOUTHWESTERN
GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM EST...

* AT 334 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  WITH ROTATION NEAR OLGA...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
  MYERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA.
  TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER IN A
  SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MUSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2704 8134 2683 8135 2678 8147 2677 8157
      2703 8156 2703 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 228DEG 26KT 2676 8173

KSCHARF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLZ063-066-069-070-160945-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-GLADES FL-
HENDRY FL-
350 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR
CENTRAL COLLIER...GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM EST...

* AT 347 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME EXHIBITING ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  FUNNEL CLOUDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF LAKE
  PLACID TO NEAR MUSE TO NORTH NAPLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
  WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
  UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
  STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NAPLES...CLEWISTON...LABELLE...MOORE HAVEN...IMMOKALEE...GOLDEN GATE
  ESTATES...LAKEPORT...PALMDALE...MONTURA...AVE MARIA...BUCKHEAD RIDGE...
  VINEYARDS...WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...FELDA...NAPLES MANOR...
  HENDRY CORRECTIONAL...DEVILS GARDEN...ORTONA...NAPLES PARK AND MUSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND STAY ON THE ALERT IN CASE
WARNIGNS BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2716 8087 2707 8096 2704 8093 2706 8097
      2693 8112 2684 8109 2681 8095 2675 8090
      2603 8094 2609 8180 2633 8185 2632 8166
      2642 8166 2642 8156 2703 8156 2703 8127
      2712 8127 2712 8117 2721 8117 2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 256DEG 25KT 2726 8156 2679 8156 2622 8179

PS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
602 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-161200-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
602 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EST...

* AT 558 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR INDIANTOWN TO 14 MILES EAST OF OKEELANTA TO
  NEAR INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL... AND MOVING
  EAST AT 35 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
  WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
  UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
  STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FORT LAUDERDALE...CORAL SPRINGS...WEST PALM BEACH...POMPANO BEACH...
  DAVIE...PLANTATION...SUNRISE...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH...BOYNTON
  BEACH...DELRAY BEACH...TAMARAC...WELLINGTON...JUPITER...MARGATE...PALM
  BEACH GARDENS...LAKE WORTH...RIVIERA BEACH...BELLE GLADE AND
  LIGHTHOUSE POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2663 8004 2662 8004 2670 8005 2615 8010
      2602 8087 2648 8088 2669 8076 2670 8072
      2676 8072 2676 8069 2681 8070 2689 8062
      2696 8061 2697 8013 2696 8012 2694 8012
      2696 8011 2697 8009 2669 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 260DEG 31KT 2699 8041 2653 8049 2620 8066

PS