Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Miami, FL

954 
WWUS52 KMFL 201814
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

FLC086-201830-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-160920T1830Z/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
214 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 214 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GOULDS...OR
NEAR THE REDLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THE REDLAND...RICHMOND WEST...GOULDS...WEST PERRINE AND HOMESTEAD
BASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2549 8039 2559 8047 2565 8039 2556 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 001DEG 5KT 2557 8040 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SI

468 
WWUS52 KMFL 201831
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

FLC086-201840-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-160920T1830Z/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 2549 8039 2559 8047 2565 8039 2556 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 327DEG 1KT 2557 8040 

$$

SI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
135 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

.AVIATION...
The weather over South Florida will continue to be influenced by a
weak low sitting well to the north northeast. As it meanders
around, the wind will continue to be on the light side, although
it will have a more north to northwest component to it today. This
should keep APF with a dry forecast, and bring another round of
showers and storms to the Atlantic coast this afternoon. With the
development of convection this afternoon, have added TEMPO groups
for most of the TAF sites with the 18z issuance. The main concern
are low cigs and vsbys. Convection should begin to quiet down as
the sun sets, with dry conditions forecast overnight, into
tomorrow morning.

&&

UPDATE...
made some changes to the PoP forecast for today, mainly to
increase temporal resolution for the convective activity. A blend
of synoptic and hi-res models is indicating somewhat lower chances
of convection than previously forecast, but still likely in the
interior, just west of Miami. However, there is still uncertainty
in this, and the metro areas may see convection more widespread
than the models are producing this morning. One of the biggest
players will be the Atlantic sea breeze, and if it is able to
develop better today than yesterday. However, with a somewhat
stronger northerly component today, the southern half of the CWA
would make sense to see the highest chances. Otherwise, only minor
tweaks to account for current conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today-Thursday)...sfc high pressure remains in
control of the area, with a mid level ridge also remaining aloft
over the state and most of the region. Meanwhile, both GFS and
ECMWF depict a deepening mid level trough moving eastward across
the eastern seaboard and producing a cut-off low by Wednesday.
This mid level low seems to linger over the eastern seaboard and
is not anticipated to push further southward during the next
several days. However, the low may help in bringing slightly
cooler temps aloft over the Florida peninsula, which could enhance
the overall instability and thunderstorm activity.

Latest MFL sounding depicts plenty of deep moisture available across
the area with PWAT values over 2 inches, temps around -6 C. But
with a prevailing light easterly flow pattern in place, expect
most of the significant convective activity to develop along
seabreeze boundaries. For today, expect a generally quiet morning
weather wise, followed by a fairly active afternoon and early
evening. POPS have been adjusted to increase the likely coverage
across most of the interior portions of South Florida, and high-
end scattered elsewhere. A similar weather pattern should continue
through the short term, although thunderstorm activity will
decrease a little by Thursday as the aforementioned low gradually
weakens and allows for a warming trend in temps aloft. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Long term (Friday-Monday)...models remain in fair agreement for
the long range forecast, keeping a generally light easterly flow
across the area through early next week, and with daytime
heating/sea seabreeze boundaries providing the main driving
mechanism for afternoon/early evening convection. Best chances of
rain and thunderstorms will remain over interior and Gulf coast
areas. However, a few strong cells are possible over the Atlantic
metro areas during the early afternoon hours as sea breezes push
inland. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals.

MARINE...winds over the coastal waters are expected to remain
mainly from the east southeast at 10 knots or less over the next
several days with seas 3 feet or less. Only exception will be around
any thunderstorm that forms, which will generate brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  91  77  91 /  50  40  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  90  78  90 /  40  40  40  40
Miami            77  91  78  92 /  40  40  30  40
Naples           77  90  76  90 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
853 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
210100-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
853 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LIGHTNING.

WIND: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE URBAN STREET FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

FLZ072-074-172-173-201800-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* AT 113 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER OJUS...OR OVER HALLANDALE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
  UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION
  OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
  KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION.
  THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW
  AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING
  UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...MIRAMAR...MIAMI GARDENS...
  HALLANDALE...NORTH MIAMI...NORTH MIAMI BEACH...AVENTURA...DANIA
  BEACH...SUNNY ISLES BEACH...WEST PARK...SUN LIFE STADIUM...OJUS...
  GOLDEN GLADES...PEMBROKE PARK...GOLDEN BEACH...IVES ESTATES AND
  HOLLYWOOD DOWNTOWN.

LAT...LON 2604 8022 2604 8011 2591 8010 2592 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 319DEG 1KT 2598 8016

SI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

FLZ067-068-168-201800-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* AT 119 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER TEQUESTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
  SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE
  POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
  FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
  CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
  SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
  PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST PALM BEACH...JUPITER...PALM BEACH GARDENS...RIVIERA BEACH...
  TEQUESTA...JUNO BEACH...NORTH PALM BEACH...LAKE PARK...JUNO
  RIDGE...LIMESTONE CREEK...PHILO FARMS...JUPITER FARMS AND FAU NORTH
  CAMPUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2681 8003 2675 8016 2696 8023 2696 8014
      2697 8014 2697 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 330DEG 4KT 2695 8012

SI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

FLZ068-168-201830-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL PALM
BEACH COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

* AT 140 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER CLOUD LAKE...OR OVER WEST PALM BEACH. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
  STATIONARY.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
  SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE
  POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
  FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
  CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
  SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
  PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST PALM BEACH...LAKE WORTH...PALM BEACH...GREENACRES...PALM
  SPRINGS...ATLANTIS...HAVERHILL...CLOUD LAKE...GUN CLUB ESTATES...
  GOLDEN LAKES...ROYAL PALM ESTATES...PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL
  AIRPORT...LAKE BELVEDERE ESTATES...DOWNTOWN WEST PALM BEACH...
  SCHALL CIRCLE...LAKE CLARKE SHORES...GLEN RIDGE...CENTURY
  VILLAGE...WESTGATE-BELVEDERE HOMES AND STACEY STREET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2675 8003 2660 8003 2658 8016 2673 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 340DEG 0KT 2669 8006

SI