Heat Advisory 1, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.AVIATION...
East coast terminals should be drier today with VFR. A stray
morning or early afternoon shower could pop up near the terminals,
but the majority of the convection should be inland of the east
coast terminals. APF and TMB could see showers and thunderstorms
near the terminals this afternoon and early evening. Gulf sea
breeze is expected to develop around 16z today & convection should
retreat west by 03z tonight. Brief bouts of MVFR are possible with
showers & IFR with a direct impact from +TSRA.

02/RAG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016/

..NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR REST OF THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
The 500 mb high pressure will continue to build to 595-597 mbs over
the Western Atlantic waters today into Wednesday while extending
west into Central Florida. This will keep an easterly wind flow
over South Florida today into Wednesday. At the same time, the
Saharan air will continue to work into South Florida from the
Bahama Islands. This weather pattern will limit the showers and
thunderstorms to mainly over the western areas of South Florida
this afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon. The pops over the
western areas of South Florida will be at most 30 percent today
and only 20 percent on Wednesday.

With the limit of the showers and thunderstorms over South Florida
today and again on Wednesday, high temperatures will be able to
warm up into the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to the mid
to upper 90s over the interior areas. These high temperatures are
near the record highs for this time of year. The relative
humidity will also be up through this time allowing for the heat
indices to get up into the lower 100s over the metro areas to the
103 to 105 degrees over the interior areas. At this time, it looks
like the heat indices will remain below the heat advisory
conditions, but will continue to monitor the conditions today into
Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
The 500 mb high will slowly weaken and move southward into South
Florida late this week. However, the saharan air will remain over
South Florida for at least Thursday before dissipating Thursday
night. Therefore, the weather will be mostly dry over South
Florida on Thursday except for ma slight chance of pops over the
western interior areas. On Friday, some moisture will return to
the area from the south as the winds will be more southerly
direction. This will allow for more showers and thunderstorms on
Friday especially over the interior areas.

High temperatures will still be near record highs late this week,
with highs in the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to the mid
to upper 90s over the interior areas. Heat indices will also
remain in the lower 100s over the metro areas to 103 to 105
degrees over the interior areas.

LONG TERM...
The 500 mb high will then move back into Central Florida from
South Florida this weekend, and remain over Central Florida early
next week. However, the 500 mb high will only be around 590 mbs
this weekend into early next week. This will allow for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon along
the sea breezes with the focus over the interior and west coast
metro areas.

High temperatures will also be back to near normal conditions
over South Florida this weekend into early next week, with highs
around 90 over the metro areas to lower to mid 90s over the
interior areas.

MARINE...
The winds will easterly today into Thursday before going more
southerly on Friday. The winds will then become easterly again
this weekend. The wind speeds will be less than 15 knots today
into this weekend. This will keep the seas at 3 feet or less in
both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida today into this
weekend.

CLIMATE...
      	    	7/5/16         7/5/16          7/6/16        7/6/16
CITIES  	 HIGH SO FAR    RECORD HIGHS   FORECAST HIGHS  RECORD HIGHS
Miami         	 93          97 - 1992          93          95 - 2009
Ft Lauderdale    92          95 - 1949          92          97 - 1954
Palm Beach       93          96 - 1914          93          95 - 1998
Naples           93          95 - 1990          93          96 - 1944

      		   7/7/16          7/7/16          7/8/16        7/8/16
CITIES  	FORECAST HIGHS  RECORD HIGHS   FORECAST HIGHS  RECORD HIGHS
Miami        	 93          95 - 2009          93          94 - 2009
Ft Lauderdale    92          97 - 2009          92          98 - 1932
Palm Beach       93          97 - 1980          93          96 - 1963
Naples           93          96 - 2001          93          97 - 1945

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  93  80  93  80 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  92  82  92  82 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            93  81  93  81 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           93  77  93  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Aviation...02/RAG

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