Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
451 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.Synopsis...

The major synoptic features across the region continue to be a
trough of low pressure across the northeast Gulf...an upper level
low centered near the central Bahamas islands and surface high
pressure extending into the Florida peninsula. Current water vapor
imagery indicates a slow Northwest drift of the upper level low
currently. Extensive cloudiness extends across the northeast Gulf
and much of the Florida peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast for the remainder of the weekend... The latest global
model consensus indicates that the northeast Gulf trough could
drift slowly northeast tonight through Sunday with the upper
level trough drifting to the northwest and the surface ridge
shifting east tonight into Sunday. These conditions will maintain
generally southerly to southwesterly flow at the surface and low
levels tonight into Sunday with deeper moisture and widespread
cloudiness approaching south Florida tonight into Sunday. By
Sunday afternoon the global models suggest deep tropical moisture
entering the region, with PWAT's around two inches or above
possible with southerly to southwesterly surface and low level
winds prevailing. Mid-level temperatures and regional instability
will increase on Sunday. These synoptic conditions will favor
chances of showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of the
region tonight. Then by Sunday afternoon more organized convectionwill
be favored across the central to eastern peninsula with the
regional flow and sea breezes favoring mass and moisture
convergence across these areas. However need to emphasize that a
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible region wide.
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible with an isolated storm
producing near severe gusty winds possible.

Rip currents...With winds,seas and lack of swell unfavorable for
rip currents, only a slight risk of rip currents is expected
through the remainder of the weekend into early next week for both
the Atlantic and Gulf coast beaches.

Forecast for Monday through Wednesday...Mid-level temps forecast
to warm a couple of degrees and the overall regional instability
decreases by Monday afternoon but deep moisture will continue and
showers and thunderstorms are again more favorable across the Lake
region and the eastern peninsula. Deeper moisture and a scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons although the convective pattern shifts to
favor the interior peninsula for the greatest coverage.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally southerly to southwesterly winds of 15 knots or less
are forecast through the remainder of the weekend becoming
generally southeasterly into early next week with regional seas 2
feet or less through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  91  74  87 /  50  60  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  77  88 /  50  50  40  50
Miami            78  90  77  89 /  40  60  30  60
Naples           78  87  77  87 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1045 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
070245-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1045 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ANYTIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY COULD STILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREAS OF BOTH THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE ALONG THE EAST COAST. MAIN CONCERN WITH ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHER CONCERNS COULD
INCLUDE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

WIND: SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER CONCERNS INCLUDE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
547 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

FLZ071>074-172>174-062230-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-INLAND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
547 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD AND NORTHEASTERN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

* AT 547 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR INTERSECTION I-75
  AND GRIFFIN ROAD TO NEAR HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
  RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
  PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
  AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIAMI...HIALEAH...FORT LAUDERDALE...PEMBROKE PINES...HOLLYWOOD...
  MIRAMAR...DAVIE...PLANTATION...SUNRISE...HOMESTEAD...TAMARAC...
  CORAL GABLES...SOUTH MIAMI...MIAMI GARDENS...BLACK POINT...
  KENDALL...HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...THE REDLAND...
  HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT AND HALLANDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2560 8027 2540 8038 2546 8070 2624 8041
      2615 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 211DEG 7KT 2609 8035 2555 8054

ALM