Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
325 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A quasi-stationary boundary remains located across Northern
Arkansas and Southern Missouri this afternoon. The upper level
disturbance that brought heavy rain to Louisiana has drifted
northward into Arkansas. The disturbance has deep tropical
moisture associated with it. Numerous showers continue to move
along the front. A heavier band has been moving over Northeast
Arkansas the last couple of hours. A COOP observer in Black Rock
reported 1.33 inches since 7 AM CDT. In addition, the site received
3.10 inches last night. As a result, the ground is becoming
saturated and some creeks are becoming bank full. The risk for
flash flooding may increase this evening as the band may remain
over Northeast Arkansas through most of the evening. The front is
forecast to fluctuate to the north by midnight. This should shift
the band to the north and west of Randolph and Lawrence Counties
through at least sunrise. As a result, will continue with likely
POPS this evening.

Meanwhile, thunderstorms are popping up over Northeast Mississippi
and West Tennessee thanks to some sunshine that occurred this
morning which allowed temperatures to heat up. The combination of
the heating and a moist atmosphere will continue allow these
thunderstorms to develop through sunset. After sunset, expect
mainly dry conditions.

The front will shift back to the southeast over Northeast Arkansas
on Monday this will bring heavier bands of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. As a result, the risk for flash flooding will increase
again over current Flash FLood Watch area. In addition, the watch
may need to be expanded depending on where exactly the band sets
up.

Elsewhere, the 4KM NAM and WRF model indicates a line of
thunderstorms developing roughly along the Mississippi River
during the afternoon hours that will push east into West Tennessee
and North Mississippi. Have kept likely POPs for the afternoon
hours only.

The front will remain over the Mid-South from Monday Night through
possibly the end of the week. Several upper level disturbances
will move along the front and bring periods of heavy rain. Expect
the risk for flash flooding to shift further east in the CWA by
Tuesday and Wednesday as the ground becomes saturated from the
extended period of rain.

A cold front will move into the Mid-South on Saturday and will
continue the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Once the front
clears the area, cooler and less humid conditions are expected to
occur.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRAS will continue to blossom across the area the area this
afternoon, most numerous across western sections including KJBR. A
few TSRA are possible across eastern sections, including KMKL and
KTUP, where instability is greater. Expecting mainly VFR
conditions with occasional MVFR visibilities in heavier
SHRAS/TSRAS. Some gusty winds are possible with the heavier
SHRAS/TSRAS as well. SHRAS/TSRAS should diminish with loss of
heating leading to a relativity quiet night overall. Best chance
for continued activity will be in the KJBR area closer to the
stalled front. Expect another round of low clouds in the morning
followed by more SHRAs moving back into KJBR by mid morning
Monday. Winds generally SE 8-10 kts this afternoon outside of
SHRAS/TSRAS, diminishing slightly tonight and increasing again to
8-10 kts Monday morning.

SJM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Clay-Lawrence-
     Randolph.

MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1058 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151800-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1058 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FLASH FLOODING
MAY BECOME A PROBLEM...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAINFALL TOTALS
MAY EXCEED FIVE INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
231 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MSZ024-142015-
MONROE MS-
231 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR...

MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 231 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR ABERDEEN

PEOPLE IN MONROE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3401 8872 3409 8872 3409 8822 3371 8834
      3368 8838 3369 8839 3368 8840 3368 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 193DEG 27KT 3375 8851

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MSZ001-TNZ088-142015-
DESOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 233 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR HERNANDO

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN DESOTO AND CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3536 9007 3533 8970 3479 8984 3480 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 186DEG 29KT 3489 8995

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MSZ015-022-023-142030-
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-PONTOTOC MS-
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR...

EAST CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 238 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR HOULKA...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL CALHOUN...NORTHWESTERN CHICKASAW AND PONTOTOC
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3425 8925 3437 8924 3438 8893 3436 8893
      3436 8890 3396 8897 3395 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 176DEG 25KT 3404 8909

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ARZ028-TNZ048-049-142145-
MISSISSIPPI AR-TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 405 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40
MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR FT PILLOW...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT PILLOW
STATE PARK.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTERN TIPTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3599 8977 3598 8972 3597 8972 3593 8965
      3590 8964 3592 8963 3592 8961 3593 8959
      3593 8956 3588 8935 3559 8959 3567 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 198DEG 28KT 3571 8972

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

TNZ089-090-142145-
FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
422 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 422 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED OVER LAGRANGE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLIVAR.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3499 8907 3500 8938 3529 8939 3526 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 187DEG 24KT 3506 8919

JOHNSON