Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...As of 3PM, KNQA radar scans currently depict ongoing
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity mainly in North
Mississippi with more isolated showers and storms present
elsewhere. Expect increasing coverage of storms until near 00Z. The
main threat with any storm this afternoon will be brief heavy
rainfall. Temperatures vary throughout the Mid-South this
afternoon with highs reaching the lower 90's in North Eastern
Arkansas where there is less cloud cover,to the mid to lower 80s
in the southern sections of our coverage area where cloud cover
and storms exist. Winds are light and mainly from the south.

Short term...
Expect a brief decrease in shower and storm activity late this
evening. However, storm chances will increase again overnight
mainly in the northern sections of the Mid-South as a disturbance
embedded in northwest flow aloft approaches the region. Chances
for thunderstorms will also exist during the day tomorrow as
several more shortwave disturbances move through the Lower
Mississippi River Valley region. Lower level southerly flow will
continue to pull moist air into the region from the Gulf Of
Mexico. PWAT values will range from 1.75 to 2.4 inches. Some strong
storms may be possible tomorrow, especially if we get significant
enough clearing to allow for atmospheric destabilization ahead of
one of the aforementioned disturbances. CAPE values will range
from 2500-3200 j/kg with low level lapse rates ranging form 7-8
C/km. However, limited amounts of shear should result in storms
remaining sub-severe. The main threat with any storms tomorrow
will be flash flooding. A similar weather pattern will remain for
the weekend as an upper level trough remains parked over the
eastern half of the United States resulting in several
disturbances embedded in upper NW flow impacting our region
increasing the chances of storms for Saturday and Sunday.

Long term...

Models begin to fall out of agreement early next week with the
Euro building an upper ridge over the region slightly earlier
than the GFS. Monday may be wet depending on the timing of the
ridge. Anyways, both models agree on the broad upper ridge
developing over the region by mid-week next week. This will result
in a return to hot conditions with heat index values approaching
or exceeding heat advisory criteria from mid week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Thunderstorms will affect the JBR and TUP VC early before
sunset...then late night/early morning disturbance will bring
more scattered activity to JBR and MEM. In between partial
clearing will allow sites to drop to IFR after midnight.
Improvements will be seen later in the day to MVFR and VFR...with
decreasing convection coverage. Southwest winds early will become
light and variable. Westerly winds of 7-10 kts will return Friday.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-291200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
314 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON FRIDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS HEAT INDICES
MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ARZ026-282330-
CRAIGHEAD AR-
601 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 601 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR MONETTE

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3579 9029 3579 9054 3596 9055 3597 9039
      3599 9039 3600 9038 3600 9029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 300DEG 9KT 3592 9044

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ARZ009-018-MOZ113-282330-
GREENE AR-CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-
603 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 603 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER RECTOR

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHERN
DUNKLIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3630 8996 3607 8996 3609 9044 3633 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 240DEG 9KT 3624 9029

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ARZ018-026-028-MOZ113-290015-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
624 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 624 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER MARMADUKE

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...EASTERN
GREENE AND SOUTHERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3622 9032 3620 9032 3620 9019 3622 9015
      3621 8996 3589 8996 3590 9054 3623 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 326DEG 6KT 3617 9036

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
700 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ARZ028-MOZ113-115-290045-
MISSISSIPPI AR-PEMISCOT MO-DUNKLIN MO-
700 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 659 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER HORNERSVILLE...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SENATH

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3579 8981 3572 9028 3611 9028 3619 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 329DEG 8KT 3605 9009

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
708 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ARZ018-MOZ113-290100-
GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-
708 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR...

CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 708 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK GROVE
HEIGHTS... OR NEAR MARMADUKE

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3626 9032 3620 9032 3620 9031 3600 9028
      3600 9038 3599 9039 3597 9039 3597 9061
      3626 9065
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 353DEG 5KT 3614 9045

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