Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1058 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A weak upper low remains over the area. Yesterday the center
was over NE Mississippi and this morning it has moved into West
Tennessee. Showers were most numerous between Jackson and Paris
this morning. This area will should gradually diminish over the
next few hours according to short range models. More activity will
likely develop as the extensive cloud cover east of the MS River
breaks up as the day progresses. Also, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing SW of the area will move
into the Delta as that area continues to destabilize under plenty
of sunshine. Just minor adjustments to the forecast at this time.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/

No rain on the radar this morning across the Midsouth.
Temperatures are mild...near normal...in the low to middle 70s
under partly cloudy skies.

Synoptically...a weak ridge is in place across the Eastern half
of the Nation...with a shallow trough over the Northern
Rockies...and generally zonal flow across the Southwest. Beneath
the weak ridge over the East...a weak cutoff low is positioned
over the Midsouth. This feature will keep at least a few showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast today. Moisture levels have
dropped off from what we saw the past couple of days. Precipitable
water valued are down from over two inches to around 1.5 inches.
As a result...the threat for flooding is less...but due to recent
rainfall...localized flooding will remain possible. The storm
prediction center has included a large majority of the Midsouth in
a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today. Modest mid level
lapse rates and diurnally induced instability could result in
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. The main threat will
be localized damaging wind and flooding. Conditions do not look
particularly favorable for hail or tornadoes. High temperatures
will be near normal today...generally around 90 degrees.

The cutoff low will gradually weaken as it shifts to the
Northeast...likely over central Kentucky by tomorrow morning. A
few showers or weak thunderstorms will remain possible near the
Tennessee River tomorrow...but most of the Midsouth will be dry.
High temperatures should be slightly warmer tomorrow as heights
rise and we expect less cloud cover.

Expect zonal flow midweek. Temperatures should be near normal with
highs in the low 90s and lows in the low to middle 70s. Upper
level flow will transition from zonal to northwesterly Friday into
next weekend. Guidance is still bringing another cold front into
the Midsouth Friday. Expect rain chances to increase...and
slightly cooler temperatures.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18z TAF Cycle

VFR weather will dominate this period with brief periods of MVFR
during convection...which will be more scattered in the short
term. Activity will diminish during the evening hours...but is
expected to rekindle before sunrise. Winds will be south through
southwest at 4-8 kts. Winds will increase at MEM and JBR late.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
346 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FEATURING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
127 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ001-008-111915-
TATE MS-DESOTO MS-
127 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 127 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR STRAYHORN...OR 7
MILES WEST OF SENATOBIA

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN TATE AND SOUTHERN DESOTO COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3456 9019 3480 9020 3488 8973 3456 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 238DEG 21KT 3464 9010

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
133 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ022-111915-
CALHOUN MS-
133 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 133 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR SABOUGLA...OR 20 MILES EAST OF GRENADA

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3416 8947 3416 8924 3408 8924 3407 8918
      3372 8919 3372 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 239DEG 17KT 3384 8945

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
208 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MSZ013-015-022-023-112000-
CALHOUN MS-LAFAYETTE MS-CHICKASAW MS-PONTOTOC MS-
208 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR...

EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 208 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER WAS LOCATED NEAR BRUCE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE...CHICKASAW AND
PONTOTOC COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3437 8932 3437 8893 3436 8893 3436 8883
      3381 8881 3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903
      3374 8904 3374 8919 3372 8919 3372 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 244DEG 24KT 3402 8926