Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Memphis, TN

323 
WWUS54 KMEG 121419
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
919 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARC037-121429-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-160512T1445Z/
CROSS AR-
919 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3593 8965 3591 8965 3588 8977 3581 8971
      3573 8996 3566 8993 3565 8985 3559 8996
      3552 8995 3555 9004 3540 9006 3548 9008
      3542 9017 3538 9017 3538 9007 3534 9011
      3528 9050 3544 9050 3576 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 250DEG 43KT 3576 9051 3554 9036 3537 9042 

$$

ARC031-035-093-111-121445-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-160512T1445Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-CRITTENDEN AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-
919 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD...NORTHERN CRITTENDEN...MISSISSIPPI AND
EASTERN POINSETT COUNTIES...

AT 919 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BAY TO NEAR TYRONZA TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
EARLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSCEOLA...TRUMANN...MARKED TREE...EARLE...LEPANTO...BAY...CARAWAY...
LUXORA...WILSON...TYRONZA...KEISER...JOINER...DYESS...DELL...
BURDETTE...GILMORE...BASSETT...MARIE...LITTLE RIVER AND TURRELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 8965 3591 8965 3588 8977 3581 8971
      3573 8996 3566 8993 3565 8985 3559 8996
      3552 8995 3555 9004 3540 9006 3548 9008
      3542 9017 3538 9017 3538 9007 3534 9011
      3528 9050 3544 9050 3576 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 250DEG 43KT 3576 9051 3554 9036 3537 9042 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

295 
WWUS54 KMEG 121444
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARC031-035-093-111-121453-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-160512T1445Z/
CRAIGHEAD AR-CRITTENDEN AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-
944 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD...
NORTHERN CRITTENDEN...MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN POINSETT COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 945 AM CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3593 8965 3591 8965 3588 8977 3581 8971
      3573 8996 3566 8993 3565 8985 3559 8996
      3552 8995 3555 9004 3540 9006 3548 9008
      3542 9017 3538 9017 3538 9007 3534 9011
      3528 9050 3544 9050 3576 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 250DEG 43KT 3576 9051 3554 9036 3537 9042 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued /

DISCUSSION...09Z Surface analysis this morning places a cold
front from northern Illinois back through Saint Louis/Springfield
Missouri, then into the Red River valley in Texas and west Texas.
Regional WSR-88D radar trends overnight have shown last evening's
convective activity beginning to enter portions of northwest
Tennessee, and showers and thunderstorms located along the cold
front in northwest Arkansas. As of 4 am CDT, temperatures across
the Mid South are predominantly in the lower 70s at most
locations. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential today and
tonight is the predominant forecast challenge in this morning's
forecast issuance.

Yesterday evening's Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) which
affected portions of east/southeast Missouri, Illinois, and
western Kentucky has weakened overnight with Water Vapor
satellite trends indicating warming cloud tops. Additional
showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across northwest
Arkansas along the cold front. 00z KLZK upper air sounding had
indicated a capping inversion present at 850 mb. Short term model
trends suggest this capping inversion will continue to weaken
today, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms
across areas mainly along and north of I-40 this morning and
spreading south across areas along and south of I-40 this
afternoon.

Short term models, especially the 6/7z HRRR runs indicate
upstream convective activity over western Arkansas will gradually
move into the Mid-South this morning with additional re-
development of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves
through the area this afternoon. High temperatures today are
anticipated to rise into the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s with
the warmest readings across northeast Mississippi. Surface based
CAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values
between 20-30 kts suggest a potential for some quasi-organized
activity with damaging winds and perhaps large hail possible with
any thunderstorms that are able to reach severe limits.
Precipitable water values around 2 inches also suggests a
potential for localized heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned cold front will move east of the forecast area
this evening with convective activity gradually diminishing as
high pressure builds into the forecast area. Rain free weather is
expected for Friday. Models indicate another cold front embedded
within northwest flow aloft will drop into the Lower Mississippi
valley Friday night into Saturday morning. However, little if any
rainfall is expected with its passage and left out any mention of
rain chances in the forecast.

An unsettled weather pattern is expected to develop across the
Mid-South for Sunday through at least the middle of next week as
upper level flow returns to the southwest and a series of upper
level disturbances bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to
the region each day.

CJC

MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

TSRA was lifting east across central and northeast AR at 1145Z.
10z HRRR model initialized well and suggest best TSRA chances will
be associated with this batch of storms...affecting MEM tracon
after 14z.

Surface cold front may be diffuse in the wake of morning convection
and may provide limited forcing for additional storms this afternoon.

VFR and light northerly winds expected for the late evening and
overnight MEM pushes.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
415 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARUTHERSVILLE MISSOURI
TO WEINER ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PREDOMINANT THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-121230-
RANDOLPH AR-GREENE AR-CLAY AR-LAWRENCE AR-
704 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 702 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR BIGGERS...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
POCAHONTAS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHWESTERN GREENE...WEST CENTRAL
CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3615 9099 3634 9089 3643 9067 3618 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1202Z 267DEG 8KT 3627 9083

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
733 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-121315-
RANDOLPH AR-GREENE AR-CLAY AR-LAWRENCE AR-
733 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 732 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER COLLEGE CITY...OR NEAR WALNUT
RIDGE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHWESTERN GREENE...WEST CENTRAL
CLAY AND EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3606 9093 3615 9099 3640 9077 3619 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 242DEG 4KT 3614 9090