Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Memphis, TN

987 
WWUS54 KMEG 010336
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ARC075-010344-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-160501T0400Z/
LAWRENCE AR-
1036 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3646 9077 3643 9078 3643 9076
      3641 9077 3640 9075 3631 9075 3621 9097
      3645 9114 3650 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 239DEG 36KT 3631 9093 

$$

ARC121-010400-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-160501T0400Z/
RANDOLPH AR-
1036 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

AT 1034 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POCAHONTAS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

REPORTS OF PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POCAHONTAS...REYNO...MAYNARD...BIGGERS...ATTICA...ELKINS PARK...
HAMIL...MIDDLEBROOK...BROCKETT...INGRAM...STOKES...BRAKEBILL...
PITMAN...ENGELERG AND WARM SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3646 9077 3643 9078 3643 9076
      3641 9077 3640 9075 3631 9075 3621 9097
      3645 9114 3650 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 239DEG 36KT 3631 9093 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
TLSJR

386 
WWUS54 KMEG 010402
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1102 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ARC121-010412-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-160501T0400Z/
RANDOLPH AR-
1102 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3646 9077 3643 9078 3643 9076
      3641 9077 3640 9075 3631 9075 3621 9097
      3645 9114 3650 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 247DEG 38KT 3631 9093 

$$
TLSJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
759 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. CURRENTLY NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO THE
WEST. IT IS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE MAY BE
SEVERE...HOWEVER...CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE STABLE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THAN CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS.

LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP.

ALSO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN SOME
AREAS...SO INCLUDED THAT IN MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHING FROM NEAR BATESVILLE AND OXFORD SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST. MORE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND 7 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS PATTERN AND DIFFERENCES
BEGIN ON HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE NAM
STALLS THE FRONT FROM PARIS TO MEMPHIS WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT
FURTHER SOUTH. WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE TROF WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND
70 TO THE MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP BACK TO NORMAL.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

SEVERAL SHORT TERM/HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASING TSRA
ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z FOR ALL FOUR TAF SITES.. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ATTM TO ADD TSRA TO TAFS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS... DECIDED ON VCTS FOR ALL 4 SITES. BEST
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE AT KJBR WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWERED CEILINGS
AT EACH SITE. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
TOMORROW MORNING. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TURN WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
700 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
700 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

TLSJR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MSZ022-023-302145-
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
422 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 422 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR DERMA...OR 17 MILES
WEST OF HOUSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CALHOUN AND WESTERN CHICKASAW COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3379 8943 3408 8922 3407 8904 3399 8890
      3372 8920 3372 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 217DEG 20KT 3380 8929