Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Memphis, TN

November 29, 2016Monroe County, Mississippi

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 29, 2016, 7:01 PM CST for Monroe County, Mississippi. It was in force for 12 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 29, 2016, 7:01 PM CST (01:01 UTC)
Expired: Nov 29, 2016, 7:13 PM CST
In force: 12 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Monroe County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 9 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 29, 3:48 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 606 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 698 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 410 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 477 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.7
Supercell composite: 7.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

238 
WUUS54 KMEG 300101
SVRMEG
MSC095-300130-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0188.161130T0101Z-161130T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 701 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SULLIGENT...
  MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GATTMAN...SIPSEY FORK AND SPLUNGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3384 8828 3400 8833 3409 8824 3409 8820
      3385 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 256DEG 38KT 3391 8821 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

1 follow-up statement

587 
WWUS54 KMEG 300113
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
713 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

MSC095-300122-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0188.000000T0000Z-161130T0130Z/
MONROE MS-
713 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3384 8828 3400 8833 3409 8824 3409 8820
      3385 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 256DEG 38KT 3394 8806 

$$

TLSJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 29, 5:35 PM CST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 5:35 PM CST, 1 hour 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
535 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to add 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..Moderate risk of severe weather over parts of North
Mississippi...

Currently...Monitoring for potential severe weather this evening.
Warm front continues to lift north with lower 60s dewpoints
beginning to push into northern MS. Meanwhile a potent shortwave
over Texas is rotating around the main Central U.S. upper trough.
This is spreading lift across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The
associated cold front is pushing east into the Arklatex at this
time. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the south of our
region.

Late this afternoon into Tonight...Increasingly concerned about
the possibility of significant severe weather across Nortehast
Mississippi. As the warm front lifts into North Mississippi and
the cold front approaches from the west a surface wave develops
over Western Mississippi early this evening and tracks NE across
North Mississippi. MLCAPES of 500-1000 j/kg work into NE
Mississippi as the moist and unstable airmass moves north ahead
of the wave. Hodographs are strongly curved with 0-1km helicity
values above 300 m2/s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear values greater than
70 kts. We are most concerned about this evening since discrete
supercells are possible as the surface wave moves through. Attm it
appears the best chance of a strong tornado or two will be across
Northeast Mississippi from about 6 pm to 11 pm. Damaging winds and
hail are also threats. Parts of North Mississippi have been
upgraded to a moderate risk. By about midnight the convection will
probably be organized into a line with an isolated severe threat
until about 3 am across Northeast Mississippi. Most of the
lingering activity should end by sunrise.

Wednesday through Friday...Cold front pushes east and a cooler
and drier airmass filters in. Expect seasonably cool temps with
highs in the 50s and lows in 30s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Models still having some trouble during
this time frame as an upper low cuts off over Mexico. Looks like
a couple good chances for rain. First one as a trough moves
through this weekend and another as that upper low ejects east
early next week. Subsequent forecasts will drill down on the
details over the next few days but the overall summary is cool and
wet.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

A cold front and upper level trough will move through the Lower
Mississippi tonight. Best potential for showers and thunderstorms
will occur at TUP this evening between 00Z-03Z and potential for
VCTS at MEM/MKL through 03Z. Confidence in VCTS and lower ceilings
low in this TAF set for MEM. MVFR/IFR conditions may develop at
TUP overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected except within
thunderstorms. S winds will veer W/NW with passage of cold front.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 29, 3:12 PM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-302315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
312 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FOR TONIGHT...ROUGHLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO BOONEVILLE...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF TUPELO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE.

A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM 5 PM CST TO 11 PM CST IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT AND END BY 3 AM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

SJM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 29, 5:23 PM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SSE PITTSBORO         33.91N 89.32W
11/29/2016                   CALHOUN            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAB

Local storm report, Nov 29, 5:42 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PITTSBORO               33.94N 89.34W
11/29/2016                   CALHOUN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JAB

Local storm report, Nov 29, 5:58 PM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
558 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOULKA                  34.03N 89.02W
11/29/2016                   CHICKASAW          MS   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

SWC

Local storm report, Nov 29, 6:01 PM CST, 1 hour before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE PONTOTOC           34.19N 88.93W
11/29/2016                   PONTOTOC           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SWC

Local storm report, Nov 29, 6:17 PM CST, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             5 SW TUPELO             34.21N 88.80W
11/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SWC

Local storm report, Nov 29, 6:23 PM CST, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             PITTSBORO               33.94N 89.34W
11/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SWC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 29, 6:01 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chickasaw, Monroe	44 min
Nov 29, 6:16 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	MEG	Monroe	44 min
Nov 29, 6:23 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Pontotoc	52 min
Nov 29, 6:29 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Itawamba, Tishomingo	31 min
Nov 29, 6:49 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Benton, Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe and 5 more	6 hr
Nov 29, 7:52 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Tallahatchie	23 min
Nov 29, 11:09 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Monroe	36 min
Nov 30, 1:37 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Monroe	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.