Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Memphis, TN

July 15, 2016Mississippi County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2016, 5:17 PM CDT for Mississippi County, Arkansas. It was in force for 43 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2016, 5:17 PM CDT (22:17 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Mississippi County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 15, 5:31 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Roseland, AR	A FEW TREE LIMBS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 18 IN ROSELAND.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 14 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 57 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -232 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1628 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

121 
WUUS54 KMEG 152217
SVRMEG
ARC093-152300-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0146.160715T2217Z-160715T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
517 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 517 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MANILA...
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL...MANILA...LUXORA...DELL...BURDETTE...
  LITTLE RIVER...ETOWAH...VICTORIA...YARBRO...BIG LAKE...RED LINE...
  PETTYVILLE...EASTVIEW...WILSON JUNCTION...WOODLAND CORNER...
  POPLAR CORNER...COLE RIDGE...CALUMET AND ROSELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8985 3575 8989 3576 8991 3574 8995
      3568 9020 3592 9025 3600 8998 3600 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 311DEG 10KT 3588 9012 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area with
temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some thunderstorm
activity was over portions of northeast Arkansas and also over
portions of north-central Mississippi. A weak cold front extended
from northeast Ohio through southern Missouri and into eastern
Colorado. The front will drop south into the forecast area later
tonight with additional thunderstorm development possible.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Saturday
morning in the low to mid 70s.

The front will stall out briefly over the region Saturday morning and
then start to lift back north as a warm front by Saturday
afternoon. This will mean that there will be a chance of
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be
quite warm on Saturday with highs in the lower 90s. The warm front
should be north of the region by Saturday evening so dry weather
is expected.

By Sunday, an upper level ridge will start to build into the
region. This will mean more dry weather with temperatures warming
some with highs in the low to mid 90s. More dry and hot weather is
expected through Monday as well with heat index values exceeding
100 in many locations.

Upper level disturbances will drop through Missouri and into the
forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a chance of
thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will remain rather hot with
highs in the low to mid 90s. Dry weather returns for Thursday and
next Friday as the upper level ridge remains in control.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions expected to prevail except in thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms look most likely between 00 and 06z as a complex of
storms develops and shifts across Arkansas and shifts across the
Midsouth. Brief periods of MVFR or IFR vis due to heavy rain and
locally gusty wind is possible. Light winds anticipated through
the period. Patchy fog may occur late tonight at MKL AND TUP.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 9:08 AM CDT, 8 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161615-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105
DEGREES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 3:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
07/15/2016  E0.88 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN CLARKTON.

&&

AJC

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MOZ115-152200-
PEMISCOT MO-
414 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 414 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR WARDELL...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF KENNETT

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3639 8961 3625 8966 3625 8970 3623 8970
      3621 8967 3613 8970 3622 8996 3639 8996
      3639 8975 3640 8975 3640 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 285DEG 9KT 3633 8991

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:10 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
510 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SENATH                  36.13N 90.16W
07/15/2016                   DUNKLIN            MO   PUBLIC

            MAIN STREET FLOODED IN NEIGHBORHOOD IN SENATH.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:11 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
511 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE MIDTOWN MEMPHIS    35.08N 89.92W
07/15/2016                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            AN AWNING WAS BLOWN OFF A BUILDING ON LAMAR AVENUE.

&&

AJC

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 5:12 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
512 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

ARZ018-028-MOZ113-115-152300-
MISSISSIPPI AR-GREENE AR-PEMISCOT MO-DUNKLIN MO-
512 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

AT 509 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER HORNERSVILLE...OR 8
MILES NORTH OF MANILA

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL GREENE...SOUTHWESTERN
PEMISCOT AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3590 8970 3590 8976 3587 8978 3575 9026
      3619 9031 3622 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 341DEG 7KT 3600 9012

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 7:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Phillips	40 min
Jul 14, 7:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	50 min
Jul 14, 8:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Phillips	44 min
Jul 15, 4:22 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	3 hr
Jul 15, 4:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi	39 min
Jul 15, 4:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Greene, Mississippi	3 hr
Jul 15, 5:35 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Mississippi	3 hr
Jul 15, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	51 min
Jul 15, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	20 min
Jul 15, 5:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Mississippi	3 hr
Jul 15, 6:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Randolph	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.