Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Memphis, TN

488 
WWUS54 KMEG 152005
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MSC161-152015-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-160715T2030Z/
YALOBUSHA MS-
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL YALOBUSHA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3389 8977 3390 8977 3390 8978 3406 8985
      3417 8965 3400 8951 3394 8951 3387 8965
      3387 8976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 329DEG 6KT 3401 8970 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to around 90 degrees. All
of the fog that develop earlier this morning is gone. Showers and
thunderstorms have been moving into portions of central Arkansas
and have been dying out before entering the forecast area. Still
expect to see some thunderstorms in the forecast area this
afternoon. Have already updated forecast to remove the Dense Fog
Advisory and no additional updates are needed at this time.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The Mid South remains beneath northwest flow aloft with subtle
shortwave disturbances moving southeast. A weak surface front
noted across northern Missouri early this morning should become
the focus for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms across the area today. The greatest potential should
remain across northern portions of the region in closest proximity
to the sfc front. Although with lower than average mid level
heights over the area...scattered showers and storms will be
possible across the remainder of the area as strong instability
develops during peak heating. A few strong storms will be possible
as instability is maximized. Any strong storm will be capable of
dangerous lightning...gusty winds...and small hail. As the front
progresses south tonight...the greater storm chances overnight
should shift into east Arkansas and north Mississippi.
Temperatures today should reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s
prior to convection. Humidity levels will also remain seasonably
high. Lows tonight will remain in the 70s.

The surface front begins to wash out across the region on Saturday
but may still provide enough of a focus along with lower mid
level heights to support scattered showers and thunderstorms...especially
across southern sections. Temperatures may be a few degrees warmer
but still seasonable of this time of year...in the lower 90s.

Upper level ridging should build back over the Mid South by Sunday
and persist through early next week. This should reduce storm
chances and allow for quite hot temperatures to develop. Most
locations will reach back into the middle 90s for Sunday and
Monday. Heat index readings will likely approach 105 degrees and a
heat advisory may become necessary for portions of the forecast
area.

The ridge retrogrades west by Tuesday as a return to northwest
flow aloft supports increased storm chances for the middle
portions of next week. This should also help to knock temperatures
back down a few degrees in most locations.

By the end of next week...the upper ridge appears to build back to
the east with a return to drier conditions and hotter temperatures
once again.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions expected to prevail except in thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms look most likely between 00 and 06z as a complex of
storms develops and shifts across Arkansas and shifts across the
Midsouth. Brief periods of MVFR or IFR vis due to heavy rain and
locally gusty wind is possible. Light winds anticipated through
the period. Patchy fog may occur late tonight at MKL AND TUP.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161615-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105
DEGREES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.