River Flood Warning 17, NWS Memphis, TN

032 
WGUS84 KMEG 161353
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
753 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

The Flood Warning is canceled for the Coldwater River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A followup Flood Statement will be issued later today or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

For graphical river and flood information...please go to 
www.weather.gov and click near Memphis on the map. Then select Rivers
and Lakes AHPS under current conditions.

Do not drive through flooded areas...turn around don't drown.

Stay tuned to your weather radio and your local news media for the 
latest river information.

&&

MSC137-143-161423-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-160216T1800Z/
/SARM6.1.ER.160215T2350Z.160216T0200Z.160216T0451Z.NO/
753 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

Forecast information for
  Coldwater River near Sarah
* At 07 AM Tuesday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 14.9 feet Tuesday February 16.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall to near 14.0 feet Tuesday February 
  16.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 9028 3481 9014 3452 9013 3452 9033
      3475 9033                       

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF RAIN IS LOCATED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AS OF 3 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER...MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AS OF 3 PM CST...VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS LOCATED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR DOWN TO
ARKADELPHIA ARKANSAS. LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INCLUDING MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
COMBINED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY...AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GRADUALLY APPROACHING SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A LOW STRATUS LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST FOR
LATER TONIGHT. EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECAST AS NECESSARY IF DENSE FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ROTATE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT
A MENTION SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST RESULTING IN A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AND DECREASED RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND LEFT OUT ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MEM AND MKL WHERE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LOOK TO OCCUR FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z WHEN VISIBILITIES COULD APPROACH 1/2SM WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SURFACE MOISTURE. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
LESS THAN 500 FT AT TIMES AS WELL.

ON TUESDAY...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOWER CIGS TO ERODE...BUT
THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
734 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-170345-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
734 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB