River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME
MORNING WORDING WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER SO FAR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE KY BORDER
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 ELSEWHERE.

COOL NORTHWEST ALOFT FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE GULF COAST TODAY AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL MODERATE THOUGH THE COLD
START WILL LIMIT THEIR POTENTIAL TO THE LOWER 40S AT MOST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL AS MUCH TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND WINDS STAY UP. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...LOWER 40S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S. WEDNESDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST MORE QUICKLY AND AS RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOP AND PUSH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND ABOVE NORMAL.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO MID MS VALLEY AND ON TO THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE ECMWF LOOKS ESPECIALLY
COLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT BRINGS A LARGE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS THAT UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH.
RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EARLY...INCREASING TO
6-10KTS BY NOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT JBR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
415 AM CST MON JAN 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM