River Flood Advisory 20, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE AXIS OF RAIN
HAS SHIFTED EAST A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WSR-88D
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY BRIGHT BANDING FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...RESULTING IN ERRONEOUSLY HIGH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. AS OF 10 AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TO UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO MENTION A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
FOG...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE MO/KY BORDER WHERE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FELL YESTERDAY AND WINDS ARE LIGHT/NEARLY CALM.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 50S.
RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING BUT HAVE NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 300 AM.

A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT TODAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY COLD SO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP SOME WITH HIGHS FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SO THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VARIED CONDITIONS AT EACH SITE WITH MVFR AT TUP AND LIFR AT JBR
AND MEM. EXPECTING IFR WEATHER TO MOVE INTO TUP THIS MORNING AS
RAIN BAND AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. PLACED VCTS
IN AT MEM AND TUP. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GOING VFR BY 16/00Z. QUESTIONS ARISE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. STRATUS AND FOG MAY REFORM AND
SITES COULD SEE IFR/LIFR WEATHER AGAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
HEDGED WITH MVFR. NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AT JBR...MEM...AND MKL
WILL BACK NORTHWEST...WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TUP WILL VEER
NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-
     RANDOLPH.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE-OBION-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1024 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1024 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.