Freeze Watch 2, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1140 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated to increase evening winds

DISCUSSION...

Tightest pressure gradient behind the front will move through the
Midsouth over the next 6 to 8 hours...with northeast winds of 10
to 15mph spreading south along and west of the Mississippi River.
Occasional gusts to 20 mph are also anticipated. Have adjusted
the evening forecast accordingly. All other forecast parameters
appear to be on track.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2016/

At 230 PM, temperatures are in the mid 60s to just above the 70
degree mark. A weak and dry 'cool' front is bisecting the area,
from Jackson, Tennessee into Memphis and back through Little Rock,
Arkansas. Just a few clouds are accompanying the frontal boundary
with a northwest wind around 10 MPH.

For tonight, a well mixed boundary layer, due to surface gradient
winds, will keep temperatures from dropping off too much. Expect
lows in the low to mid 40s areawide, with a few areas possibly
dropping into the upper 30s. Frost is not expected.

Saturday will likely be the coolest of the next seven days, as
moderate CAA filters in all day tomorrow. Highs will remain in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. A 1028mb surface high will become nearly
centered over the Mid-South by early Sunday morning. This will
set up nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. Clear skies,
calm winds, and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide. Frost will likely be widespread across the
northern half of the FA, with a few areas receiving a light
freeze. Some frost is expected in low lying areas of north
Mississippi, but less confidence exists at this point. Will
continue the mention of frost and a light freeze in the HWO.

Quiet weather for Sunday, with temperatures near seasonal highs in
the low to mid 60s.

By Monday, upper level flow will shift northwesterly and another
cold front will move through the lower Mississippi Valley. Large
scale models continue to show a mostly dry FROPA. Surface high
pressure will build in for the rest of the week leading to
slightly above normal temperatures with continued dry conditions.
Expect highs around 70 with lows around 50 each day.

By Friday, a large trof will dig across the Plains and lift
northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Saturday morning. At
the surface, an associated cold front is expected to move through
the Mid-South sometime late Friday night into Saturday morning. A
decent chance of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...06z TAF

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Although a few
high clouds may be around early in the period...skies should
quickly clear later tonight as much drier air filters over the
area. Northeast winds greater than 8 kts will continue through the
remainder of tonight and Saturday. Winds should diminish to light
and variable by Saturday evening.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
427 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
427 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREAS OF FROST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE MID 30S. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.