Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1021 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

.UPDATE...

A MAJOR HYDROLOGIC EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS THE
REGION PREPARES FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5-9" HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECORDED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOILS COMPLETED SATURATED. OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN IS ANOTHER ROUND OF TRAINING...HEAVY PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. RATES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE PORTION OF THIS LINE ARE
APPROACHING 1-2" PER HOUR WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION DEVELOPING WITH THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ESSENTIALLY MAXED OUT.

PRECIPITATION RATES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...BRINGING AN END
TO THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...WITH RIVER FLOODING
MOST CERTAINLY CONTINUING.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. TWO
WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARIES STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST ONE STRETCHES FROM NEAR CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO NEAR
SEARCY ARKANSAS. THE SECOND ONE STRETCHES FROM NEAR OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO TRAIN
ALONG AND BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD THREE TO SIX
INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THIS CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES
INCLUDING ACROSS THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH
AS EIGHT INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF PHILLIPS COUNTY
ARKANSAS. SINCE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN NEARLY CONTINUOUS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BEEN TRANSITIONING TO AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD AN TRANSITION THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO A FLOOD WATCH AS FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE RIVER
ORIENTED. EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD TWO TO THREE INCHES COULD FALL
IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF RIVERS
INCLUDING THE WOLF...COLDWATER...NORTH FORKED DEER...AND THE OBION
RIVER HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. THESE
RIVER BASINS WILL BE OF THE MOST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL HELP SET OFF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. EXPECT THAT BY THIS EVENING...RAIN MAY TAPER OFF SOME ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. ANOTHER LULL COULD OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SETS OFF ROUND 3 OF HEAVIER CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN...OPENING UP AS A BROAD UPPER TROF. THIS WILL MOVE MOST OF
THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO THE WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE EXPIRATION 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES FROM
TODAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. IN PARTICULAR...ARES FROM UNION CITY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA SOUTH INTO PHILLIPS
COUNTY ARKANSAS/COAHOMA COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.

AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ONE WILL
MOVE IN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AND ONLY AGGRAVATE
ONGOING FLOODING.

MODELS NOW SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH ONLY MAY CONTINUE THE WET PATTERN.

KRM

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT.
E/SE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AVERAGING 5-12 KTS.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-111230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
348 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...RIVERS WILL BEGIN TO RISE. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE
RIVER BASINS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA NEED TO STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL..NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. HAZARDOUS HEAVY RAIN MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK OF FLOODING ALONG RIVER BASINS IN THE FLOOD WATCH. PEOPLE
LIVING ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND ANY FLOODING ARE WELCOME.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     FLOOD            5 SE EUDORA             34.78N 90.09W
03/10/2016                   DESOTO             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAND COLLAPSE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL KNOCKED DOWN POWER POLE
            AND POWER LINE ON FOGG ROAD WEST OF CRAWFORD ROAD.

0345 AM     FLOOD            3 SSW LAKE CORMORANT    34.86N 90.23W
03/10/2016                   TUNICA             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0345 AM     FLOOD            2 WSW WALLS             34.93N 90.17W
03/10/2016                   DESOTO             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER ROAD ON NORTHBOUND HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH OF
            CHURCH ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     FLOOD            5 E HERNANDO            34.83N 89.90W
03/10/2016                   DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOLLY SPRINGS RD CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING ROADWAY. 6
            TO 8 INCHES OF WATER COVERING RD. NOT DRIVABLE.

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
746 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     FLOOD            1 W LAKE CORMORANT      34.90N 90.23W
03/10/2016                   DESOTO             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CITIZEN RESUED FROM SUBMERGED CAR ON HWY 61 IN DESOTO
            COUNTY

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
826 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     FLOOD            FRIENDSHIP              35.91N 89.24W
03/10/2016                   CROCKETT           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM REPORTS MORE THAN 10 ROADS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING AROUND THE COUNTY

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 AM     FLOOD            CRENSHAW                34.50N 90.19W
03/10/2016                   PANOLA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SANDBAGGING ONGOING TO PROTECT 12 HOMES IN THE CRENSHAW
            AREA AND ANOTHER 3 HOMES IN THE CURTIS STATION AREA.

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
927 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     FLOOD            BEMIS                   35.58N 88.83W
03/10/2016                   MADISON            TN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL ROADS THROUGHOUT BEMIS COVERED WITH WATER. COOP
            OBSERVER REPORTS 5.52 INCH STORM TOTAL RAIN.

&&

JPM